Its ALMOST 2006

Saturday, December 03, 2005
Is it too early to start speculating on political campaigns? Probably, but that never stopped me. So--how are the potential Democratic Presidential candidates going to play Iraq? Most voted for the resolution and when the chips are down continue to vote not to cut and run. Rhetorically, of course, they seem to be taking the defense that I am dumber than Bush and Rove and was tricked into supporting the war.

Given that the Democratic primary system favors the Democratic moonbats, just how are "mainstream" Democrats (is there such a thing?) going to navigate this Scylla and Charybdis? And, of course, if the situation in the Middle East continues to improve, as I believe it will, how are the Dems going to switch sides? They can take Rep. Adam Smith's (D, WA) comments which appeared in my morning fishwrap: "the situation isnt as bad as I thought, but I am still distressed that Bush lied...." Smith is a Seattle area Democrat, so take it for what it is worth (link not available).

Is it too early to start speculating?

19 comments:

Rick Ballard said...

"Is it too early to start speculating?

Of course not.

I see the current Dem (lack) of strategy being extremely poll and money driven but that's almost tautological. The proble is that the mad dog rush to the left every four months is not having any positive monetary impact. Last month's figures showed a $700K net drop of cash on hand. And now the President has turned the polls with a 7-10 day effort.

The guy in Washington is just a forerunner as a weathervane. There will be tons more in line behind him. I'm pretty sure that the WoT slides off the Dem screen pretty soon. Their problem is what can they replace it with?

What issue will hold the rentseeking moat dweller's around the Blue Castles attention? Do the Blue Castles have any political value in terms of gaining control of Congress? What type of promises can a minority party make in order to garner votes? "Vote for us and if we win" ain't a winning political hand. It wouldn't even of worked in '94 had Commissar Clinton not pursued her health care collectivization plan.

Political power has shifted from the urb to the 'burb. What can the Dems promise to tickle the 'burb voter without turning off the moat dwelling rent seekers?

I'm all ears.

David Thomson said...

“Smith is a Seattle area democrat”

The odds are high that I will be moving to Seattle, Washington sometime in 2006. Lord, what have I done to deserve such a fate? I guess it’s possible that Congressman Adam Smith might even become my representative in Washington, DC. If this does become reality---I plan to ceaselessly irritate this clown.

There are few “mainstream” Democrats remaining in the party. The radicals have taken over. Even a center left candidate is deemed too conservative by the Daily Kos crowd. They will support such a person only as a last resort. Yellow dog Democrats in Texas, for instance, turned Republican over twenty years ago. I strongly suspect that conservative Democrats will completely disappear before the end of this decade. A new party will emerge premised almost exclusively on the culture war issues.

Skookumchuk said...

david:

There is Seattle proper and then there is "Seattle".

Seattle proper - within city limits - is profoundly moonbatty, in the classic sense of having 1986 Subarus covered with bumper stickers parked on every block. But as you get out of town the moonbat index asymptotically approaches zero once you get about twenty miles out in any direction. Very different politics, too.

David Thomson said...

“But as you get out of town the moonbat index asymptotically approaches zero once you get about twenty miles out in any direction. Very different politics, too.”

The financial aspect is unavoidably important. It is my understanding that housing prices are also less costly in the suburbs. Apparently, only wealthy moonbat liberals can afford to live close to the downtown area.

Skookumchuk said...

Now there are outlying islands of moonbattery in Bellingham and Olympia and little bits elsewhere.

The Moonbat Archipelago.

However, once you get outside the gravitational pull of Seattle, you're pretty much home free.

Rick Ballard said...

Skook,

I'm looking in Clallam, Jefferson, Snohomish and Skagit counties. If I'm understanding what I'm reading correctly Clallam seems to have the fewest moonbats - Port Townsend seems to have a certain wacko aura to it.

How are Snohomish and Skagit? Inside the Banana belt - not in webbed feet territory.

Skookumchuk said...

rick:

The "banana belt" is actually on the Olympic Peninsula, centered on Sequim (pronounced Squim) in Clallam County. It is a reasonable choice. Port Townsend does have a split personality; downtown is espresso and antique joints along with real fisherman types. Snohomish and Skagit both require webbed feet. You might also check out the eastern slopes fo the the Cascades. That can be nice, too.

MeaninglessHotAir said...

skookumchuk,

I visited Seattle for the first time this summer and I loved it. It seems a lot less moonbatty than Boulder to me.

If I were going to live there permanently I think I would look for a place where the sun occasionally shines. East of the Cascades?

Syl said...

I grew up in Tacoma and spent a lot of time in Seattle. But all that was a-political. Well, not totally. My uncle was mayor of Tacoma.

I love the Northwest. Just love it.

And Mt. Rainier is mine. All mine. Even though it's been literally decades since I've set foot on it. I can still close my eyes and see it rising above the clouds. I looked for it every day.

As for subject, I think both Democrats and Republicans have a bit of the same problem. The primaries. I don't think a social conservative could win a general election next time.

Rick Ballard said...

MHA,

Oak Harbor (Whidby Island) only gets about 20 inches and Anacortes about 27. Sequim is definitely the driest at 17 but Port Angeles is only 24. That doesn't necessarily correlate to sunshine.

I'm leaning toward the hills between Sequim and PA - too far from Seattle to commute.

Skookumchuk said...

syl:

You should see downtown Tacoma now. The University of Washington has a branch campus on Pacific Avenue. And I'm sorry, but Mt. Rainier is MINE.

Yes, people, east of the Cascades. Cle Elum, Roslyn, Ellensburg, all that.

MeaninglessHotAir said...

Syl,

Mt. Rainier is truly awesome. I loved it too. I also loved the unique combination of water and mountains and city. It's just better than anything. Except for the constant drizzle. :-(

As for social conservatives winning, I don't believe that's been possible for a long time. Bush claims to be one, but in my opinion he's mostly faking it. Other than that no President post-Sixties has been a social conservative and there will probably never be one in this libertine nation.

I remember hearing on NPCR a report about a focus group study the Democrats were running in 1996. They had hooked people up to meters and then shown them a video of Bob Dole speaking. The meters ran high until he mentioned sex and then immediately slumped. The remote possibility that somehow Bob Dole (who always struck me as a clandestine libertine) was going to take away people's sexual "rights" was one of the secret weapons the Democrats were able to deploy in that election. I simply don't believe anyone could get elected without finessing the abortion issue.

On second thought, with the Democrats gradually aborting themselves out of existence, the demographics could eventually change....

Syl said...

Skook

And I'm sorry, but Mt. Rainier is MINE.

LOL That mountain does have this effect on people, doesn't it?

You're not the first person I've said this to who responded the same way.

A very personal connection, something almost spiritual, is made up there.

I have no idea what it means.

Syl said...

MHA

So, um, what do you have against sex?

You throw the word 'libertine' around like it's worse than 'prude'.

I suspect reality is somewhere in the middle.

MeaninglessHotAir said...

Syl,

I wouldn't be so quick to jump to conclusions.

Ok: as a "liberal with libertarian leanings"--as a friend once described me--I don't really give a good g--n what anybody does sexually.

However, despite the fact that in my heart I'm a bleeding heart, I try very hard to be realistic. And I think it is realistic to say that in the full panoply of human societies the United States today--or at least the portion of it I live in--is somewhere toward the libertine end of the scale. That's a statement of fact as I perceive it, not a value judgement. I don't believe I would have it any other way.

terrye said...

I think there are a lot unknowns about the election in 2006, a year is a very long time in politics.

I am not sure what effect Iraq will have on the elections, to a large extent that is up to the Iraqis.

Of course the Democrats will believe any nonsense that they think will help them in this regard [such as Murtha citing some poll about the Iraqis wanting us out now] or whatever, but in truth it will depend on what happens over there as much as here.

I think the biggest problem Republicans face will be themselves. Will they stay home to send a message that unless land mines are laid on the Mexican border [just kidding] they will be staying home?

In truth this always happens, one issue voters decide that if they can not have what they want they will screw it up for everyone else.

After all, how else could the Clintons have made it to the White House?

Syl said...

MHA

Well I apologize for my knee-jerk reaction to the word 'libertine'. Yes, America has been getting less inhibited in the last few decades. :)

I see value in slowing the process down. These kinds of changes obviously affect more than individual behavior and a society needs time to make and adjust to those changes.

RogerA said...

Geez--the political thread dissolved into a discussion of Washington State--OK sports fans--I am from the EAST side (which we natives refer to as East of the cascade mountains--if you are in seattle, the east side refers to Bellevue and Issaquah--

I live half way between Moses Lake and Othello on a slope overlooking potholes reservoir--terrible name for a beautiful body of water.

Grant County, for whom I work, is the largest agricultural producer in Washington state and very conservative--even to the right of me.

Anyone wishing to move to Washington State, contact me--my wife is in local real estate and we are selling a lot of property to the west siders who are fed up with the rat race over there and who can telecommute/

Skookumchuk said...

RogerA:

Touché. Yes, often to us Puget Sounders the east side is Cle Elum. And there are lots of nice places in the real eastern part of the state. Like White Salmon along the Columbia, or Walla Walla, or anything between Spokane and Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. Just for starters.