I may have to eat my own words---but I predict that the Republicans will do quite well next Tuesday. This is an off year election. The presidency is not in play. Thus, only the more committed voters will bother to show up. The American elections scholar Raymond Wolfinger asserts that individual income and formal education are two of the most important determining factors regarding who will take the time to actually cast a ballot. Democrats have a lock on the very wealthy and those possessing the minimum of a Masters Degree. However, the Republicans are just a little less wealthy and a very high percentage finished college at the bachelor’s level. When push comes to shove, the latter are a safer bet on election day. If nothing else, Tom Hamburger and Peter Wallsten in their One Party Country emphasize the GOP's superb ability to get out the vote. The Democrats are second raters in this regard. The Detroit Tigers embarrassed me last week. Will the Republicans do likewise next week? We will find out soon enough.
Update: I found this a short time ago. It appears that Michael Barone and I are on the same page (hat tip to the Power Line blog):
“Michael Barone provides an excellent short course on the perils of polling, in the context of this year's election. The key point is that in 2004, people who actually voted split exactly equally between Republicans and Democrats. On the other hand, current polling is showing party identification favoring the Democrats by 5 to 12 points. As Barone notes, party identification has historically changed only slowly. It is highly unlikely that the turnout on November 7 will favor the Dems by anything like 5 to 12 points. Which throws into question most if not all of the poll resuts we've all been seeing.”
Cities de Crystal: San Diego & Tijuana
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