tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post115665652502257773..comments2024-03-26T16:03:42.608-06:00Comments on Flares into Darkness: A Bit of Fun with Statisticsambisinistralhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03836786826294202405noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1156743937863294212006-08-27T23:45:00.000-06:002006-08-27T23:45:00.000-06:00The public could be excused if they guessed the sl...The public could be excused if they guessed the slope was reversed:<BR/>Don't think we'll be seeing headlines anytime soon reading:<BR/>"Decrease in Hurricane Frequency Continues Long-Term Trend."Doughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16770268554450465514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1156730549985038012006-08-27T20:02:00.000-06:002006-08-27T20:02:00.000-06:00In fact some of the folks at Climate Audit plotted...In fact some of the folks at Climate Audit plotted the storm frequency to hit US and a Poisson distribution, and they are almost identical. The total number of hurricanes comes close to following a Poisson distribution too. A Poisson distribution is like a normal distribution, except it applies to events that have relatively few instances, especially where the ceiling is fairly low (e.g., the number of hurricnase in a year won't be a million--it's hard to get above 25-30). So essentially these events are averaging out in a way basially predicted by the statistics of a Poisson distribtuion.Barry Dauphinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15808109325931309525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1156725930092505532006-08-27T18:45:00.000-06:002006-08-27T18:45:00.000-06:00Not surprising given the folks selling Global Warm...Not surprising given the folks selling Global Warming, but they are Incredibly Self-Centric, namely acting like the rest of the World does not exist, or if it does, does not matter:<BR/>----<BR/>Back around '93 Guam seemed to be getting hit about every other week, including some real monsters.<BR/>Haven't seen anything like that since.<BR/>Hawaii doesn't get nearly as many, but experienced a similar trend.<BR/>Think it's been about 6 years since we've had one come close!<BR/><BR/>Not that they would care to include the real world in their tiny self-contained one inside their heads.Doughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16770268554450465514noreply@blogger.com