tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post116284595992207656..comments2024-03-26T16:03:42.608-06:00Comments on Flares into Darkness: Throwing Down the Gauntletambisinistralhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03836786826294202405noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162909770811633502006-11-07T07:29:00.000-07:002006-11-07T07:29:00.000-07:00Morgan,The turnout rate of the 19 districts in my ...Morgan,<BR/><BR/>The turnout rate of the 19 districts in my calling post averaged 38% with a range of 26% to 46% in '02. The percentage relates to the VAP. The RV population nationally comes in at 68% (per Gans). If I expand the universe to all 55 of the district that I studied the turnout moves to 39% (which is comparable to the 40% midterm turnout rate that you see in news reports).<BR/><BR/>You're touching on an issue that I've raised before and never had answered. If you know for a fact that LV's are no greater than 40% of a population, doesn't your poll design have to incorporate that fact by setting the initial sample set at 2.5 times the number required to provide meaningful data? I believe that the sample sets are structured on the basis of knowing that respondents will lie at a phenomenal rate (approaching that of people who say that they attend church).<BR/><BR/>To put it slightly differently 40% of the VAP are LV's and 59% of the RV's are likely voters. Samples with response rates that are significantly different from those numbers have probably been stratified using the special sauce.Rick Ballardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082425215912372067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162877736623968702006-11-06T22:35:00.000-07:002006-11-06T22:35:00.000-07:00Well, it's a Senate race, not a House race, but it...Well, it's a Senate race, not a House race, but it looks like there is a very motivated population in Missouri. A large chunk of the electorate has equated Amendment 2 (protecting stem cell research) with grinding babies in blenders. They'll vote. "No on 2" signs are everywhere, even in the city of St. Louis with its overwhelmingly Democrat demographic.<BR/><BR/>I expect Talent to beat McCaskill handily on the backs of "likely voters" who are actually "I'd walk 20 miles in the snow to keep the babies out of the blenders voters".<BR/><BR/>Tomorrow we'll see if I have any clue about these things.<BR/><BR/>By the way, Rick, do you have any data on the proportion of LVs who actually vote?Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13849696277722291312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162870868409802092006-11-06T20:41:00.000-07:002006-11-06T20:41:00.000-07:00What surprises me is that Cost didn't just referen...What surprises me is that Cost didn't just reference <A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-2_15_06_JC.html" REL="nofollow">this</A> and make whatever adjustments he thought warranted given the caveats he included in the final paragraph. Strange.<BR/><BR/>Nice weather we're having. The computer I'm going to buy is available in Salem, Oregon. No sales tax. The drivers in Oregon are a caution on sunny days. I can (barely) wait.<BR/><BR/>Best.lonerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13329414340481290010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162865303990453052006-11-06T19:08:00.000-07:002006-11-06T19:08:00.000-07:00Thanks Chuck. I suppose I should have used extrapo...Thanks Chuck. I suppose I should have used extrapolation rather than meta-analysis. I got wrapped up in his initial discussion concerning the three companies and why he picked Gallup.<BR/><BR/>I have a real problem with Gallup at the moment because it does not appear that they've adjusted their "secret sauce" to reflect the change in the generic. Same with Rasmussen and his 6.2 to 3 shift, which is hidden behind the pay screen.Rick Ballardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082425215912372067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162864582871926862006-11-06T18:56:00.000-07:002006-11-06T18:56:00.000-07:00Re, update.That wasn't a meta-analysis in the tech...Re, update.<BR/><BR/>That wasn't a meta-analysis in the technical sense, where different polls are weighted and combined, Cost just picked what he thought was the best poll, Gallup, and tried to interpret the generic ballot. He admits it's tough to go from the generic ballot to the final result, particularly since 1994, but does quote a number that shows it has good predictive value. However, for the statistical prediction to hold requires an assumption of randomness in the way the various districts will go that may not hold in present circumstances, particularly if there aren't enough districts in play.<BR/><BR/>As to evaluating the validity of the poll itself, the best Cost can do is reference Gallup's track record. I don't see much alternative myself, so we will just have to wait and see.chuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15164145672293455823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162864365895289522006-11-06T18:52:00.000-07:002006-11-06T18:52:00.000-07:00Vnjagvet,I think I've almost got it. Cost is runni...Vnjagvet,<BR/><BR/>I think I've almost got it. Cost is running his meta-analysis off the generic - he still may come back with a race by race with a different picture.<BR/><BR/>I know that libs will vote tomorrow - some of them several times. I also know that there aren't any liberal leaning districts in play. What I <I>don't</I> know is what the positive motivation for the 60% of the Democratic party who aren't liberals would be?Rick Ballardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082425215912372067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162863259973725642006-11-06T18:34:00.000-07:002006-11-06T18:34:00.000-07:00You da man, Rick.Thanks for the analysis, and watc...You da man, Rick.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the analysis, and watching the pollsters with your eagle eye.<BR/><BR/>wv: feknlubs<BR/><BR/>Two little changes express my thoughts on this election eve.<BR/><BR/>Guess what they are.vnjagvethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15904498408683884983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162863170762702402006-11-06T18:32:00.000-07:002006-11-06T18:32:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.vnjagvethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15904498408683884983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-1162847064914095022006-11-06T14:04:00.000-07:002006-11-06T14:04:00.000-07:00I agree and sent this around--though you could hav...I agree and sent this around--though you could have called it Throwing Down the Ganslet.cfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06415260679597997353noreply@blogger.com