tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post6731043043344764914..comments2024-03-26T16:03:42.608-06:00Comments on Flares into Darkness: Treason's Rewardambisinistralhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03836786826294202405noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-27704902299334850552007-11-29T20:48:00.000-07:002007-11-29T20:48:00.000-07:00Buddy,You don't exceed 15% two years running on "l...Buddy,<BR/><BR/>You don't exceed 15% two years running on "luck". I don't have the stomach for trading any more. "Any more" being since 1987.<BR/><BR/>If the financials get hit a little harder I might give it a whirl. The problem is figuring out who has coal in their stockings and who has diamonds. It would be a bit more helpful if the banks pretended to have a clue as to what the whiz kid quants had gotten them into.Rick Ballardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082425215912372067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-60716109629494662642007-11-28T23:14:00.000-07:002007-11-28T23:14:00.000-07:00hasten to add, it was just dumb guess-right luck t...hasten to add, it was just dumb guess-right luck to be loaded up in energy stocks when they went parabolic the last couple years--otherwise i wouldn't be tooting so. in fact i'd probably be back out in the fields--and i do mean the fields.buddy larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17760847873026506988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-54336585308419926022007-11-28T23:04:00.000-07:002007-11-28T23:04:00.000-07:00rick--just the stocks now, in this phase--here's m...rick--just the stocks now, in this phase--here's my trades: gold thru NEM, FRGOX and AU, energy thru CVX, HAL, SLB, OIH, XTO, MTR, NBR, PBR, CHK, infrast/coal/ag thru ADM, GE, AA, BTU, MEE, tech/tellecom thru TXN, T, NOK, JDSU, LVLT, consumer/food thru WMT, NSRGY, SLE, rest of world thru CWGIX, and a rate hedge thru RYCBX. Lately been helped by owning no financials, except a token AMP and AXP to try to recapture some card fees, LOL. want to buy some XLF while it's bumping along bottom but skeered. even after the last two days--note the very light volumes.<BR/><BR/>spread wide & thin, but it kinda hedges the downside--as well as of course retards the upside alas. <BR/><BR/>not to toot horn but i'm up 15% on the year, 20% in '06 (tho not with all the same stocks listed--i change a few issues every quarter) with as you see risk dialed down thru diversification. always the general market risk tho. <BR/><BR/>all in all i'm tickled with approaching the thing as a cash-flow biz--it keeps you focused like the dickens (and cursing your hix in the stix sole choice wifi connection), but no FDA/TDH regulators, no commuting, and no livestock (*whew*). a much better old fart's game than the wholesale food producers racket.buddy larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17760847873026506988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-28421638362746499172007-11-28T19:24:00.000-07:002007-11-28T19:24:00.000-07:00Buddy,You're talking equity rather than commodity,...Buddy,<BR/><BR/>You're talking equity rather than commodity, right? I was thinking you played commodities as well.Rick Ballardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082425215912372067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-77946965831194284142007-11-28T18:16:00.000-07:002007-11-28T18:16:00.000-07:00re the oils, naw, rick --i hate to admit, but i'm ...re the oils, naw, rick --i hate to admit, but i'm buying the dips and increasing net longs. <BR/><BR/>with hindsight I could've avoided a few percent post-August haircut in a few issues if i hadn't surrendered to the fear that i'd have to buy back higher once the next accumulation wave comes up--and them black boxes can't be beat on speed, they have to be out-positioned. <BR/><BR/>I realize a sneaky bear will shoot my method all to hell but with low rates and high global growth (and hillary's flat hectoring voice), i can't get skeered enough to change yet. <BR/><BR/>I keep 20-30% cash tho, so i don't have to sell in a hurry to raise bargain-hunt cash for these dips. staying underinvested as a policy is stupid in an up market but it does let you add little dribs and drabs when the things are on sale. and keeps the nerves steady. <BR/><BR/>I manage risk by staying clear of shorts and derivatives and no 'hot' stocks that aren't levered to energy and global infrastructure build-out. <BR/><BR/>I missed Google, RIMM, APPL, Baidu, all those great plays. They seemed iffy, 200-500% ago, alas.buddy larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17760847873026506988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-57346001308757198622007-11-28T17:41:00.000-07:002007-11-28T17:41:00.000-07:00Why aren't they huddled in a tent somewhere in Ida...<I>Why aren't they huddled in a tent somewhere in Idaho...</I><BR/><BR/>Umm, you are assuming that Idaho would want them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-15212528317963921272007-11-28T16:27:00.000-07:002007-11-28T16:27:00.000-07:00Buddy,That's just moving deck chairs from port to ...Buddy,<BR/><BR/>That's just moving deck chairs from port to starboard during the stop to take on a little ice. I'm wondering if more news on loan covenants and possible ratings changes from S & P or Moodys is in the wind. The <I>Globe</I> is really a drag. The Blue Plague has knocked the total population down by about 2-3% and the poverty rate is creeping up nicely.<BR/><BR/>"Vote Dem and Die" works as well in Boston as it does in Philly - not quite as good as Detroit but give 'em time.<BR/><BR/>Did you move to the sideline in oil? I'm thinking that the oily princes may give the carpet a tug over the next year. Put a little bigger dent in Iran and see what happens.Rick Ballardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082425215912372067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-40161036543798328122007-11-28T15:09:00.000-07:002007-11-28T15:09:00.000-07:00Rick--you might be right re management shake-up (j...Rick--you might <A HREF="http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSWEN272420071128?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true" REL="nofollow">be right</A> re management shake-up (just up on Drudge).buddy larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17760847873026506988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-52412827515590285562007-11-28T14:17:00.000-07:002007-11-28T14:17:00.000-07:00Chuck,I held on to my NYT subscription for a few e...Chuck,<BR/><BR/>I held on to my NYT subscription for a few extra years just for the Science section. Then the bastards even politicized that so I finally gave 'em a call and said, "Don't darken my drive with this drivel no more."Knuckleheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09245646229814895145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-78149140565575138982007-11-28T13:56:00.000-07:002007-11-28T13:56:00.000-07:00Buddy,Isn't any play in the stock dependant upon r...Buddy,<BR/><BR/>Isn't any play in the stock dependant upon removal (or maybe sequestration) of Junior? I understand the "could be" side of the web issue but Junior has only shown an aptitude for the edifice complex. There is a definite brand value that still exists but the paper is still being edited for a Manhattan <I>bien pissant</I> (including emulators) audience that continues to shrink. <BR/><BR/>Another unintended result of the intentional dumbing down of the electorate (IMO).<BR/><BR/>Get Junior out and replace him with someone who doesn't start taking off his shoes when he gets to eight while counting and it would definitely be a buy. For a while anyway.<BR/><BR/>Accelerating change isn't a friend to media.Rick Ballardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082425215912372067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-6393002556279846152007-11-28T13:20:00.000-07:002007-11-28T13:20:00.000-07:00True--there's a lot of talent & energy in the thin...True--there's a lot of talent & energy in the thing. Pure tragedy, really classic tragedy, that such an organization is being brought down by such a duckbill platypus of a red hereditary lordship. <BR/><BR/>Can you say "internal contradiction" ?buddy larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17760847873026506988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-8203136392182103912007-11-28T11:43:00.000-07:002007-11-28T11:43:00.000-07:00I hope the science section, still the best in the ...I hope the science section, still the best in the business, manages to parachute out before the crash. But I don't see how.chuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15164145672293455823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16821859.post-16162840558059828732007-11-28T11:35:00.000-07:002007-11-28T11:35:00.000-07:00they're now banking on the website, Rick. A smart ...they're now banking on the website, Rick. A smart broker i know has been researching the issue and thinks they're a buy here, on the strength of the brand's potential on the web. Dunno if i'd buy--they're on my rather-see-in-Hell list.buddy larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17760847873026506988noreply@blogger.com