You Was Born to Die

Monday morning, start of the workweek blues by Blind Willie McTell.

  

   

Matchbook covers

Click any image to enlarge

You don't see them much anymore, but matchbooks used to be quite common and they were given away freely. If a table had an ashtray on it it usually had one or two matchbooks sitting in it. They had a lot of graphics and advertising crammed onto their small spaces.

There are more examples after the jump, and more at Flickr where I found these samples.

Back to Monkey!

EnglishRussia's post Back to Monkey features a 1962 Soviet film is a lampoon of Western dancing, clothing style and jazz music. While the older members of the audience not doubt were amused by it, I imagine younger people may have had quite a different reaction to its energy.

UPDATE: I originally had the video embedded. As Borepatch pointed out in the comments it was on autoplay. Sorry about that so that. I hate autoplay so I rewrote the post.
  

Mechanical bird song

This 1890 device built by Blaise Bontems uses bellows and mechanics to create a bird song. Blaise, his son and grandson ran a company that produced these devices.
   

Harvesting honey

Left - Mesolithic cave painting of a woman harvesting honey
Right - water color by F. Benitez Mellado showing the details of the original
Click image to enlarge.

Beekeeping and honey gathering is one of mankind's oldest activities. There are cave paintings of women gathering honey.By the time of ancient Egypt, through the use of articial hives, bees had already been semi-domesticated.

Below is a video of an Australian beekeeper showing how he extracts the honey from the combs for bottling. It must be awfully messy work and cleanup must be a chore. I wonder how they do it at a mass produced level?

Stratfor and Gertie Millar

This Stratfor article by Omar Lamrani gives an overview of the current situation in Syria from a military perspective.

It points out that Assad has gone from being a national figure to what is essentially a war lord who controls a ever smaller slice of territory as his position collapses. It is a good read that explains the strategic situation between Assad and the rebels as it currently stands.

Since the article discussed Assad's collapse it was only natural the Edwardian ladies, with their tendency to faint from a case of the vapors, would be a fertile field to scour for this article's Hot Stratfor Babe.

With that in mind I eventually selected Gertie Millar for the honor of representing the article.

At the age of 13 Ms Millar started her show biz career in the dance halls of Manchester and London. She soon caught the eye of a producer who moved her to the stage where she played leads in comedic musicals and was extremely popular in her day.

WWI and the rise of silent films slowly killed off the live theater of the day. After retiring, and after the death of her first husband, she became Lady Dudley when she married the 2nd Earl of Dudley.


Al Assad's Last Stand
By Omar Lamrani, December 6, 2012

The battle for Damascus is raging with increasing intensity while rebels continue to make substantial advances in Syria's north and east. Every new air base, city or town that falls to the rebels further underlines that Bashar al Assad's writ over the country is shrinking. It is no longer possible to accurately depict al Assad as the ruler of Syria. At this point, he is merely the head of a large and powerful armed force, albeit one that still controls a significant portion of the country.

The nature of the conflict has changed significantly since it began nearly two years ago. The rebels initially operated with meager resources and equipment, but bolstered by defections, some outside support and their demographic advantage, they have managed to gain ground on what was previously a far superior enemy. Even the regime's qualitative superiority in equipment is fast eroding as the rebels start to frequently utilize main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket and tube artillery and even man-portable air-defense systems captured from the regime's stockpiles.

Weary and stumbling, the regime is attempting to push back rebel forces in and near Damascus and to maintain a corridor to the Alawite coast while delaying rebel advances in the rest of the country. Al Assad and his allies will fight for every inch, fully aware that their power depends on the ability of the regime forces to hold ground.

The Battle for Damascus

It is important to remember that, despite considerable setbacks, al Assad's forces still control a sizable portion of Syria and its population centers. After failing to take Damascus in Operation Damascus Volcano in July, the rebels are again stepping up their efforts and operations in the Damascus area. However, unlike in their previous failed operation, this time the rebels are relying on an intensive guerrilla campaign to exhaust and degrade al Assad's substantial forces in Damascus and its countryside.

After the last surge in fighting around Damascus in July and August, the regime kept large numbers of troops in the area. These forces continued search and destroy operations near the capital despite the considerable pressure facing its forces in the rest of the country, including in Aleppo. Once the rebels began to make gains in the north and east, the regime was forced to dispatch some of its forces around Damascus to reinforce other fronts. Unfortunately for the regime, its operations in the capital area had not significantly degraded local rebel forces. Rebels in the area began intensifying their operations once more, forcing the regime to recall many of its units to Damascus.

Aware of the magnitude of the threat, the regime has reportedly shifted its strategy in the battle for Damascus to isolating the city proper from the numerous suburbs. The rebels have made considerable headway in the Damascus suburbs. For example, on Nov. 25 rebels overran the Marj al-Sultan military air base in eastern Ghouta, east of the capital. Rebel operations in the outskirts of Damascus have also interrupted the flow of goods to and from the city, causing the prices of basic staples such as bread to skyrocket.

Rebel Gains in the East and North

Damascus is not the only area where the regime is finding itself under considerable pressure. The rebels have made some major advances in the last month in the energy-rich Deir el-Zour governorate to the east. Having seized a number of towns, airfields and military bases, the rebels have also taken the majority of the oil fields in the governorate. They captured the Al-Ward oil field Nov. 4, the Conoco natural gas reserve Nov. 27 and, after al Assad's forces withdrew from it on Nov. 29, the Omar oil field north of the town of Mayadeen. Al Assad's forces now control only five oil fields, all located west of the city of Deir el-Zour. With the battle for the city and its associated airfield intensifying, even those remaining fields are at risk of falling into rebel hands.

The rebel successes in Deir el-Zour have effectively cut the regime's ground lines of communication and supply to Iraq. They have also starved the regime of the vast majority of its oil revenue and affected its ability to fuel its war machine. At the same time, the rebels are reportedly already seeking to capitalize on their seizure of the eastern oil fields. According to reports, the rebels are smuggling oil to Turkey and Iraq and using the revenue to purchase arms. They are also reportedly using the oil and natural gas locally for power generators and fuel.

While all of eastern Syria may soon fall into rebel hands, rebels in the north have continued to isolate al Assad forces in Idlib and Aleppo governorates, particularly in the capital cities of those two provinces. After overrunning the 46th regiment near Atarib on Nov. 19 following a two-month siege, the rebels are now looking to further squeeze remaining regime forces in Aleppo by taking the Sheikh Suleiman base north of the 46th regiment's former base.

The Rebels' Improved Air Defense Capability

Isolated and surrounded, regime forces in the north are increasingly relying on air support for both defense and supply. However, this advantage is deteriorating every day and is increasingly threatened by the rebels' improved air defense arsenal and tactics.

The rebels first attempted to acquire air defense weaponry by seizing heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft artillery. They captured a number of air defense bases, taking 12.7 mm DShK heavy machine guns, 14.5 mm KPV heavy machine guns and even 23 mm ZU-23-2 autocannons. Over time, the rebels became more proficient with these weapons, and an increasing number of Syrian air force fixed-wing and rotary aircraft were shot down. The rebels also formed hunter-killer groups with air defense equipment mounted on flatbed trucks that provided them mobile platforms for targeting regime air and infantry units.

As more and more regime bases were taken, the rebels were able to bolster their air defense equipment through the capture of a number of man-portable air-defense systems. At the outset of the conflict, the Syrian military maintained a large inventory of shoulder-fired air-defense missiles, likely thousands of missiles ranging from early generation SA-7s to very advanced SA-24s. These missiles were stored in army bases across the country. There are also unconfirmed reports that Qatar and Saudi Arabia may have transferred some man-portable air-defense systems to the rebels through Turkey.

The rebels tallied their first confirmed kill with shoulder-fired air-defense missiles Nov. 27, when they shot down a Syrian Arab Air Force Mi-8/17 helicopter near Aleppo city. The weapon system used in the attack was likely an SA-7, SA-16 or SA-24 captured from the 46th regiment. The surface-to-air missiles are a serious upgrade in the rebels' air defense capability.

The Fight Continues

Having isolated al Assad's forces in the north and made substantial advances in the east, the rebels are poised to push farther into the Orontes River Valley to relieve the beleaguered rebel units in the Rastan, Homs and al-Qusayr areas of Homs governorate. For months, regime forces have sought to overwhelm the remaining rebel forces in Homs city, but the rebels have managed to hold out. The rebels are also set to begin pushing south along the main M5 thoroughfare to Khan Sheikhoun and the approaches to Hama. However, first they need to overwhelm the remaining regime forces in Wadi al-Dhaif near Maarrat al-Numan.

Alternatively, the regime is fighting hard to maintain its control over the Orontes River Valley around Homs in order to keep an open corridor linking Damascus to the mostly Alawite coast. Not only is this corridor at risk of eventually being cut off, but the regime is also facing a substantial push by rebel forces into northeastern Latakia governorate from Idlib. Rebels have advanced in the vicinity of the Turkman Mountain, have taken control of Bdama and are now fighting their way down in the direction of Latakia city.

While events in Damascus and Rif Damascus are increasingly worrisome for the regime, al Assad's forces in the rest of Syria are also under considerable pressure from rebel advances. It is by no means certain that al Assad's forces are under imminent threat of collapse because they still hold a great deal of territory and no major city has yet been completely taken by the rebels. The retreat and consolidation of al Assad's forces also allows them to maintain shorter and less vulnerable lines of supply. However, it is clear that the regime is very much on the defensive and has been forced to gradually contract its lines toward a core that now encompasses Damascus, the Orontes River Valley and the mostly Alawite coast. With the regime's situation rapidly deteriorating, even the attempt to stage a gradual withdrawal to the core is risky.

Al Assad's Last Stand is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Pearl Harbor

Click image to enlarge

Recollections of Hickam Field during the attack on Pearl Harbor by Joseph A. Pesek, Technical Sergeant, United States Army Air Corps, 5th Bomber Group (source).

On the morning of December 7, 1941, I got up shortly after 6 A.M. and walked to the NCO club for breakfast which was adjacent to the Pearl Harbor Naval Base. At the time I was a Tech Sergeant in the 5th Bomber Group and sharing half of a duplex government house with Joe Barrett, 4th Recon. Squadron. After breakfast, I headed for the bus stop to wait for the 8:05 bus to take me to Honolulu where I was to play golf at the Wai Lai Golf Course.

While sitting there on a bench, I noticed a large flight of aircraft approaching from the northwest flying at an altitude of about 15,000 feet and at a distance which made identification impossible. I had seen similar flights come in preceding the arrival of U.S. aircraft carriers and just assumed another of our carriers was coming into port at Pearl Harbor. They approached at a point almost due north of where I was sitting and suddenly began to peal off in steep dives into the harbor. I watched a large torpedo-shaped bomb drop from the first plane followed by a huge explosion.

As one after the other dropped their torpedoes, terrific explosions and flames were plainly visible. At the time, I thought it strange but possible that the Navy was conducting some sort of exercise and possibly destroying something over in the west locks where the target ship Utah and other old ships were moored. As the first plane pulled up only several hundred feet to my left with machine guns blazing, I saw the Rising Sun insignia on the wings and knew we were under attack.

He was flying over Hickam Air Field at an altitude of approximately 150 ft. A young boy was waiting at the bus stop with me and I told him to get home as fast as he could. By that time, clouds of black smoke were rising over the Harbor and planes were pulling up across Hickam toward the flight line with machine guns firing. When I got back to my quarters, Joe Barret was just getting up to see what all the noise was about. I yelled to him to move it as we were under attack.

After throwing on a pair of coveralls over my civies, we took off running toward the consolidated barracks and flight line. By this time, things were hectic and we had to hit the ground every few minutes due to low-flying strafing planes. As we were crossing the parade ground headed for the hangar line, we ran into Dave Jacobson and three other guys trying to set up an old WWI water-cooled machine gun and they were having problems with the tripod

Joe and I both had prior hitches in the Infantry so we had it assembled and in operational order quickly. I believe that had there not been a lull in the strafing, we would have stayed right there, but I guess it was not to be.

It wasn't long after we left that Dave and his crew took a direct hit that blew them to bits. The only way they identified Dave was by finding a section of his finger with his ring still in place. Pg. 83- '7 Dec 41 "The Air Force Story" states that Dave was hit while changing a tire on the flight line. This may be so if he left the parade ground after I saw him there, but I doubt it. I know the gun we set up took a direct hit and those around it were killed instantly.

As we ran toward the hangar, we stayed close to the barracks so we wouldn't be out in the open as the planes were again overhead. There I saw another friend of mine, George Bolan lying face up, undoubtedly killed by concussion as there was no blood or signs of cuts that I could see. Yet his face was turning dark, possibly from broken blood vessels. When we got to the hangar, Joe went to his plane and I went into Hangar 7. They were passing out rifles from the armament room so I got in line thinking at least it may be some protection later on. By the time I reached the head of the line, all rifles and helmets had been given out. I then started to carry canisters of 50 caliber ammo out of the armament room so they could be loaded into any of the aircraft still in commission. Several minutes later, I was returning for another canister when someone coming out said all the ammo was out, so I turned around and headed out the large sliding doors. Just then the hangar took a hit from a large bomb dropped from a high altitude flight. It felt as though the whole hangar was lifted from the ground. The next thing I knew, I was picking myself up off the ramp between hangars 7 and 11, my back covered with white plaster blown out from the hangar.

Someone ran up to me and handed me a pint of whiskey. I took a gulp holding the bottle with both hands and although I don't remember being scared, my hands shook so much I almost dropped the bottle before giving it back. Next, I went to the adjacent Hangar 9 where Ed Caton, Freddie Lewis and JP Bock were. For a little while, there was another lull so we just sat and talked. I remember JP smoking a cigarette so fast it was like a fuse burning with a flame at the end of it. In about 15 minutes, the planes were back and Ed and Freddie were kneeling on the flight line side of the hangar, firing at them as they flew along the row of hangars. Once they passed, I took off across the runway toward the John Rogers Airport which was located where the present Honolulu International Airport is now. Before I got to the middle of the runway, I saw low-flying aircraft approaching from the east and I hit the ground again. While waiting for them to pass, someone hit the ground next to me and said, "Where are you headed, soldier?" I looked up and it was Brig. Gen. Jacob H. Rudolph, commander of the Eighteenth Bombardment Wing. I said, "I'm not sure where I'm going, but I know it's away from the hangars."

I got up and started to run again and almost made the edge of the runway when three more planes came at me. They were so low that I could see the ground kicking up where their machine-gun bullets were hitting. I hit the ground again covering my head with my hands. It seemed as though a thousand things passed through my mind mostly of home and my family. I could not believe it when those three planes passed right over without hitting me.

I looked up as they passed and thought the sky never looked bluer. I didn't even notice it at the time, but I tore my fingernails down until they were bleeding, trying to make a hole in the runway, I guess. Across the runway, I found a hole about 4 feet deep and 10 feet across which I dove into and, for the first time since the bombing began, I felt like I had made it. I was in the pit, which I learned later was dug for a base perimeter security exercise, for no more than five minutes when one of our large refueling trucks pulled up and stopped with one of his tires flat from being hit by one of the strafers. I could just picture another strafer hitting the truck and filling my hole with flaming fuel. I jumped from my security blanket and was out in the open again.

Finally, the driver of the truck, who was a kid from my squadron, and I decided things were quieting down. He went back to the motor pool and had them bring out a huge jack and for at least the next hour, I helped him change the wheel. I then went back across the runway to the 5th Bomb. Group Personnel Office where a bunch of guys I knew had gathered. When Mike Kocan saw me, he said that he went by my quarters earlier and thought I had been killed. He told me that a small bomb hit up against the curb in front of my house and blew right through it. When I finally got back to my house (Tuesday PM) I found that my wrist watch, knocked from the top of my dresser into the open drawer, had the only piece of glass in the house that wasn't broken, including the tiles in the bathroom.

No one slept the night of December 7, 1941. I went over to the Operations Building and listened to reports coming in out from the command post that had been set up there. I have read many accounts and talked to a lot of eyewitnesses and survivors and stories differ. Many people were still in bed when the attack first began and saw things a little differently according to where they were at first sightings. One of the few who I know, who was also up and in a good spot to observe things was my Group Commanding Officer, General Farthing. He and I traded experiences later and our stories as to what we saw and what took place in those first few minutes were exactly the same. 

  

Sweet

Get ready for a weekend of summer vacation memories with Jehro.

  

  

Titanic's iceberg

The iceberg that sank the Titanic (click to enlarge)

Sorry for the brief post, but I'm a bit pressed for time and my broken shoulder is acting up a bit worse than usual tonight making it hard to type. This is believed to be a picture of the iceberg that sank the Titanic. As explained at PetaPixel:

Now, one hundred years later, a photo that may the only surviving print showing that infamous chunk of ice is going up for auction. It’s expected to fetch up to $10,000.
The photo is being sold by American auction house RR Auction, which lists the print’s title as, “The Iceberg that Sunk Titanic.”

The 9.75×8-inch photograph was snapped by Captain W. F. Wood of a ship named S. S. Etonian, two days prior to the event.

Scribbled on the front of the photo are the words, "Copyright. Blueberg taken by Captain W. F. Wood S. S. Etonian on 12/4/12 in Lat 41° 50 N Long 49° 50 W. Titanic struck 14/4/12 and sank in three hours."

Although there are no known photos of the actual iceberg taken on the day of the tragedy, there are a number of reasons that have led experts to believe the one shown in this photo is that very iceberg.

First, it was captured at a location 2-3 days (in iceberg floating time) from were the ship sank. Second, the shape of the iceberg matches the sketches offered by eyewitnesses who survived the disaster, including the lookout who first spotted the ice in the horizon.

Finally, the iceberg’s shape resembles another photo (seen in the 1976 book A Night to Remember) taken from a ship named Prinz Adalbert, which was present in the area during the day after the sinking.

Making a chess piece

This video shows Mostopher Dnouch, a Moroccan bow lathe turner, making a chess piece in the market of Marrakech. His lathe is foot powered, and he uses a single chisel to do all of the work. I wonder how much he sells his chess sets for?

Via Stuart King.
  

42 strings

There is an adage in art that you have to know when to stop working on a piece -- when one more brush stroke is one too many for a painting. That adage came to mind when I saw a picture of a stringed instrument called the Pikasso.

The Pkasso, so named because it looks like a Picasso painting, has 4 necks, 2 sound holes and 42 strings. It was built for the jazz musician Pat Methany. You can hear it being played in the video below. Frankly, the scattered sound from Pat feeling the need to twang on every string pretty much validates the old art adage.

Damsel in distress

Our fight scene to get you over the hump in hump day starts with a villainous fellow chasing a girl into a martial arts academy. One would think that following her in would be a deadly move, but it doesn't quite turn out that way.
  

Stratfor and Hanan Tork

This Stratfor article by George Friedman starts by going over the history of Egypt's relationship with the U.S. and Israel and then examines how the present situation in Egypt will likely lead to a realignment of the region's balance of power.

Again, with my usual caveat that I'm just an internet blowhard, I think the Arab Spring in North Africa are primarily food riots, so I think one has to be cautious in assigning scheming rather than just an opportunity seized to the Muslim Brotherhood's current ascendancy.

While the Brotherhood has guns and zealotry, if the food warehouses stay empty and cooking oil scarce, they'll be greatly  restrained in what they can do; meanwhile, the army may have its own plans.

For the article's  Hot Stratfor Babe I turned to Egyptian actresses for a worthy candidate and, since the situation in Egypt is complex, I selected Hanan Tork, who is facing her own set of complications, for the honor. 

Ms Tork started as a ballet dancer before being cast in her first film. Her career has been successful and she's done a considerable amount of Egyptian movies and films.Eventually she donned the hajib and retired from acting.

However, she returned from retirement when she took the role of Mother Teresa for a film. This required her to wear a cross and recite verses from the Bible and, to put it mildly, neither action set well with the Islamists. She's been declared an apostate for her role in the film.


Egypt and the Strategic Balance
By George Friedman, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, December 4, 2012

Immediately following the declaration of a cease-fire in Gaza, Egypt was plunged into a massive domestic crisis. Mohammed Morsi, elected in the first presidential election after the fall of Hosni Mubarak, passed a decree that would essentially neuter the independent judiciary by placing his executive powers above the high court and proposed changes to the constitution that would institutionalize the Muslim Brotherhood's power. Following the decree, Morsi's political opponents launched massive demonstrations that threw Egypt into domestic instability and uncertainty.

In the case of most countries, this would not be a matter of international note. But Egypt is not just another country. It is the largest Arab country and one that has been the traditional center of the Arab world. Equally important, if Egypt's domestic changes translate into shifts in its foreign policy, it could affect the regional balance of power for decades to come.

Morsi's Challenge to the Nasserite Model

The Arab Spring was seen by some observers to be a largely secular movement aimed at establishing constitutional democracy. The problem with this theory was that while the demonstrators might have had the strength to force an election, it was not certain that the secular constitutionalists would win it. They didn't. Morsi is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, and while there were numerous claims that he was a moderate member, it was simply not understood that he was a man of conviction and honor and that his membership in the Brotherhood was not casual or frivolous. His intention was to strengthen the role of Islam in Egypt and the control of the Muslim Brotherhood over the various arms of state. His rhetoric, speed and degree of Islamism might have been less extreme than others, but his intent was clear.

The move on the judiciary signaled his intent to begin consolidating power. It galvanized opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood, which included secular constitutionalists, Copts and other groups who formed a coalition that was prepared to take to the streets to oppose his move. What it did not include, or at least did not visibly include through this point, was the Egyptian military, which refused to be drawn in on either side.

The Egyptian military, led by a young army officer named Gamal Abdel Nasser, founded the modern Egyptian state when it overthrew the British-supported monarchy in the 1950s. It created a state that was then secular, authoritarian and socialist. It aligned Egypt with the Soviet Union and against the United States through the 1970s. After the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who was later assassinated by Islamists, shifted Egypt into an alliance with the United States and signed a peace treaty with Israel.

This treaty was the foundation of the regional balance of power until now. The decision to end the state of war with Israel and use Sinai as a demilitarized buffer between the two countries eliminated the threat of nation-to-nation war between Arabs and Israel. Egypt was the most powerful Arab country and its hostility to Israel represented Israel's greatest threat. By withdrawing from confrontation, the threat to Israel declined dramatically. Jordan, Syria and Lebanon did not represent a significant threat to Israel and could not launch a war that threatened Israel's survival.

Egypt's decision to align with the United States and make peace with Israel shaped the regional balance of power in other ways. Syria could no longer depend on Egypt, and ultimately turned to Iran for support. The Arab monarchies that had been under political and at times military pressure from Egypt were relieved of the threat, and the Soviets lost the Egyptian bases that had given them a foothold in the Mediterranean.

The fundamental question in Egypt is whether the election of Morsi represented the end of the regime founded by Nasser or was simply a passing event, with power still in the hands of the military. Morsi has made a move designed to demonstrate his power and to change the way the Egyptian judiciary works. The uprising against this move, while significant, did not seem to have the weight needed either to force Morsi to do more than modify his tactics a bit or to threaten his government. Therefore, it all hangs on whether the military is capable of or interested in intervening.

It is ironic that the demands of the liberals in Egypt should depend on military intervention, and it is unlikely that they will get what they want from the military if it does intervene. But what is clear is that the Muslim Brotherhood is the dominant force in Egypt, that Morsi is very much a member of the Brotherhood and while his tactics might be more deliberate and circumspect than more radical members might want, it is still headed in the same direction.

For the moment, the protesters in the streets do not appear able to force Morsi's hand, and the military doesn't seem likely to intervene. If that is true, then Egypt has entered a new domestic era with a range of open foreign policy issues. The first is the future of the treaty with Israel. The issue is not the treaty per se, but the maintenance of Sinai as a buffer. One of the consequences of Mubarak's ouster has been the partial remilitarization of Sinai by Egypt, with Israel's uneasy support. Sinai has become a zone in which Islamist radicals are active and launch operations against Israel. The Egyptian military has moved into Sinai to suppress them, which Israel obviously supports. But the Egyptians have also established the principle that while Sinai may be a notional buffer zone, in practice the Egyptian military can be present in and responsible for it. The intent might be one that Israel supports but the outcome could be a Sinai remilitarized by the Egyptians.

A remilitarized Sinai would change the strategic balance, but it would only be the beginning. The Egyptian army uses American equipment and depends on the United States for spare parts, maintenance and training. Its equipment is relatively old and it has not been tested in combat for nearly 40 years. Even if the Egyptian military was in Sinai, it would not pose a significant conventional military threat to Israel in its current form. These things can change, however. The transformation of the Egyptian army between 1967 and 1973 was impressive. The difference is that Egypt had a patron in the Soviet Union then that was prepared to underwrite the cost of the transformation. Today, there is no global power, except the United States, that would be capable of dramatically and systematically upgrading the Egyptian military and financially supporting the country overall. Still, if the Morsi government succeeds in institutionalizing its power and uses that power to change the dynamic of the Sinai buffer, Israel will lose several layers of security.

A New Regional Alignment?

A look at the rest of the region shows that Egypt is by no means the only country of concern for Israel. Syria, for example, has an uprising that, in simple terms, largely consists of Sunnis, many of which are Islamists. That in itself represents a threat to Israel, particularly if the relationship between Syria and Egypt were revived. There is an ideological kinship, and just as Nasserism had an evangelical dimension, wanting to spread pan-Arab ideology throughout the region, the Muslim Brotherhood has one too. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood is also the most organized and coherent opposition group in Syria. As Morsi consolidates his power in Egypt, his willingness to engage in foreign adventures, or at least covert support, for like-minded insurgents and regimes could very well increase. At a minimum Israel would have to take this seriously. Similarly, where Gaza was contained not only by Israel but also by pre-Morsi Egypt, Morsi might choose to dramatically change Egypt's Gaza policy.

Morsi's rise opens other possibilities as well. Turkey's Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party is also engaged in a careful process of reintroducing Islam into a state that was militantly secular. There are fundamental differences between Egypt and Turkey, but there is also much in common. Turkey and Egypt are now engaged in parallel processes designed to create modern countries that recognize their Islamic roots. A Turkish-Egyptian relationship would both undergird the Egyptian regime and create a regional force that could shape the Eastern Mediterranean.

This would, of course, affect American strategy, which as we have said in the past, is now rapidly moving away from excessive involvement in the Middle East. It is not clear how far Morsi would go in breaking with the United States or whether the military would or could draw a line at that point. Egypt is barely skirting economic disaster at the moment because it is receiving a broad range of financial aid from the West. Moving away from the United States would presumably go well beyond military aid and affect these other types of economic assistance.

The fact is that as Egypt gradually evolves, its relationship with the United States might also change. The United States' relationship with Turkey has changed but has not broken since the Justice and Development Party came to power, with Turkey following a more independent direction. If a similar process occurred in Egypt, the United States would find itself in a very different position in the Eastern Mediterranean, one in which its only ally was Israel, and its relationship with Israel might alienate the critical Turkey-Egypt bloc.

Prior to 1967, the United States was careful not be become overly involved in protecting Israel, leaving that to France. Assuming that this speculation about a shift in Egypt's strategic posture came to pass, Israel would not be in serious military danger for quite a while, and the United States could view its support to Israel as flexible. The United States could conceivably choose to distance itself from Israel in order to maintain its relationships with Egypt and Turkey. A strategy of selective disengagement and redefined engagement, which appears to be under way in the United States now, could alter relations with Israel.

From an Israeli point of view -- it should be remembered that Israel is the dominant power in the region -- a shift in Egypt would create significant uncertainty on its frontier. It would now face uncertainty in Egypt, Syria and Lebanon, and while unlikely, the possibility of uncertainty in Jordan. Where previously it faced hostile powers with substantial military capabilities, it would now face weaker powers that are less predictable. However, in an age when Israel's primary concern is with terrorist actions and uprisings in Gaza and the West Bank, this band of uncertainty would be an incubator of such actions.

The worst-case scenario is the re-emergence of confrontational states on its border, armed with conventional weapons and capable of challenging the Israeli military. That is not an inconceivable evolution but it is not a threat in the near term. The next-worst-case scenario would be the creation of multiple states on Israel's border prepared to sponsor or at least tolerate Islamist attacks on Israel from their territory and to underwrite uprisings among the Palestinians. The effect would be an extended, wearying test of Israel's ability to deal with unremitting low-intensity threats from multiple directions.

Conventional war is hard to imagine. It is less difficult to imagine a shift in Egyptian policy that creates a sustained low-intensity conflict not only south of Israel, but also along the entire Israeli periphery as Egypt's influence is felt. It is fairly clear that Israel has not absorbed the significance of this change or how it will respond. It may well not have a response. But if that were the case, then Israel's conventional dominance would no longer define the balance of power. And the United States is entering a period of unpredictability in its foreign policy. The entire region becomes unpredictable.

It is not clear that any of this will come to pass. Morsi might not be able to impose his will in the country. He may not survive politically. The Egyptian military might intervene directly or indirectly. There are several hurdles for Morsi to overcome before he controls the country, and his timeline might be extended for implementing changes. But for the moment, Morsi appears in charge, he seems to be weathering the challenges and the army has not moved. Therefore, considering the strategic consequences is appropriate, and those strategic consequences appear substantial.

Egypt and the Strategic Balance is republished with permission of Stratfor.

The oldest still functioning internal combustion engine

This 1867 Otto Langen atmospheric engine is the oldest still functioning internal combustion engine. It provide low RPM and power, but was commercially successful in its day. I found the best explanation as to how it works at the above link:

The engine comprises a long vertical cylinder, open to the atmosphere at its upper end, within a fluted column mounted on a pedestal. The appearance of the column is described as Grecian Ionic. At the top of the cylinder are mounted the drive shaft and flywheel. The piston, which is capable of free vertical movement, is attached to a long rack engaging with a spur gear on the drive shaft. The coupling between the spur gear and the drive shaft is achieved through a roller-wedge clutch. In this application the upward motion of the piston in unimpeded but the weight of the piston, some 50 kg, and atmospheric pressure provide the motive force for the engine during the downward movement. The flywheel, required to maintain constancy of speed, dominates the upper end of the engine. The base pedestal incorporates a cooling water jacket at the lower end of the cylinder and the gas inlet valve.

A second spur gear on the drive shaft meshes with a similar gear on an auxiliary shaft which has two joined, ratchet-activated, eccentrics which operate to (i) raise the piston and (ii) move the gas inlet slide valve, so that a new charge of the gas-air mixture is admitted to the cylinder when the piston is at the bottom end of the cylinder. This mechanism is activated by a lever, which engages the ratchet, rotating with the auxiliary shaft, which causes the eccentrics to operate so that the movement of the piston and the admission of the charge are correctly timed.

The column is made from cast iron, whilst the working parts are made from steel and bronze. Cylinder bore 150 mm, piston stroke 908 mm (max), output 0.5 horsepower (0.37 kW)

Operation. When the piston is at the bottom of its stroke it is raised, about 9% of the stroke, by a lever engaging with the rack and operated by an eccentric mounted on the auxiliary shaft. During this time an explosive mix of air and gas is drawn into the cylinder through a slide valve. This mix is then ignited by a flame contained within the slide valve cover. As a result of the explosion the piston is forced upwards until it comes to rest due to the combined influence of gravity and the development of a vacuum in the cylinder. As the piston descends it is connected to the drive shaft through the action of the roller-wedge clutch and so provides the motive force to operate the engine. Exhausting the products of combustion is effected through an exhaust valve. Speed is manually controlled by restricting the gas flow through the exhaust valve; this reduces the speed of descent of the piston, resulting in an increased interval between firing strokes.

Dreams Are Best

Dreams Are Best -- Robert William Service

I just think that dreams are best,
Just to sit and fancy things;
Give your gold no acid test,
Try not how your silver rings;
Fancy women pure and good,
Fancy men upright and true:
Fortressed in your solitude,
Let Life be a dream to you.

For I think that Thought is all;
Truth's a minion of the mind;
Love's ideal comes at call;
As ye seek so shall ye find.
But ye must not seek too far;
Things are never what they seem:
Let a star be just a star,
And a woman -- just a dream.

O you Dreamers, proud and pure,
You have gleaned the sweet of life!
Golden truths that shall endure
Over pain and doubt and strife.
I would rather be a fool
Living in my Paradise,
Than the leader of a school,
Sadly sane and weary wise.

O you Cynics with your sneers,
Fallen brains and hearts of brass,
Tweak me by my foolish ears,
Write me down a simple ass!
I'll believe the real "you"
Is the "you" without a taint;
I'll believe each woman too,
But a slightly damaged saint.

Yes, I'll smoke my cigarette,
Vestured in my garb of dreams,
And I'll borrow no regret;
All is gold that golden gleams.
So I'll charm my solitude
With the faith that Life is blest,
Brave and noble, bright and good, . . .
Oh, I think that dreams are best!
   

Scrap Iron Blues

Monday morning, start of the workweek blues by Robert Pete Williams.
 
   

Zooming with an electron microscope

A series of pictures, starting with a crustacean, to a diatom and ending with bacteria, is assembled to create a microscopic zoom. The richness of structure at each scale is striking. From Smithstonian.com.
  

Sprinting cheetah and chicken steadycam

Above is a series of shots of cheetahs sprinting at 1200 frames per minute. What's amazing is how steady it holds its head as it runs. It reminded me of the below video, which I've ran across from time to time while looking for my beloved minicam videos, of a chicken being rigged as a steadycam.

In the time of the British Raj

Click any image to enlarge

A shoe box held 178 plate glass negatives taken over 100 years ago in India during the British Raj. These pictures, and the ones after the jump, are from that set.

If you're interested in such photographs the website Old Indian Photos has many more vintage photographs from India as well as samples of Indian artwork from the period. It's a very nice collection.

Angkor Wat

This is a curious little video by somebody with the slightly spammy screen name paidworldtraveler. They've taken some 16mm footage of somebody's trip to Angkor Wat, edited it heavily and added a soundtrack. The result is rather dreamy and you get a good feel for the scale and condition of the ruins.