Thursday, May 04, 2006

Shifting Sands - PA Senate Race

In the fall, Rick Santorum was counted as a goner - Bob Casey had a very strong lead of over 11% and Santorum's numbers had slipped well below the 50% point which indicates danger for an incumbent. It's spring now though, and the most recent polls indicate signs of intelleigent life in Pennsylvania. Santorum maintains a two to one cash on hand edge over Casey and Casey's pro-life stand has made him persona non grata to quite a number of Democratic fund raisers.

The poll also highlighted the current schizophrenia afflicting those who respond to polls - 53% are in favor of 'throwing the bums out' while 50% say 'but not my bum'. That number is a little low historically, usually my bum draws 55% or so.

A sign of impending change? Yes - if the percentages hold up through Labor Day. And Labor Day is only 120 days away - what could change?

4 comments:

cf said...

And don't forget the power of Swann. I think Santorum will pull it off.(Rumor is Rendell doesn't care for Casey and won't do much to help him.)

Anonymous said...

I don't think much will change in Indiana because it is Indiana. The land that time forgot.

Anonymous said...

Peter:

Long time no see.

loner said...

Rendell beat Casey for the Democrat nomination for Governor four years ago. A significant victory, that.