Everyone from Bush, to Michael Yon, to Powerline, to Richard Clarke, to, of course, CNN, Kos, DU, and the rest of the enemy side, are all cautioning that terror will continue in Iraq and that Zarqawi was just one among many. I'm going to go out on a twig and say, not so. Not only was Zarqawi eliminated, so were his nearest lieutenants. In Baghdad 17 raids were launched immediately after the bombing, and the intelligence from those raids will probably cascade for days before running dry. And after that I expect a major drive into Baghdad to settle the neighborhoods trying to set up their own little Islamic republics. The Iraqi government has been formed, the army grows apace, and the police force is improving. The time for action has arrived and I think things will settle out faster than anyone is willing to predict. There remains the problem of Iran and the militias, but those are different problems, we will see how they go.
So there you have it. But in the unlikely event that I should be proven wrong I do not promise to push a peanut around the equator with my nose, I will just move on to the next topic like any professional pundit and hope you forget.
Update:
And let's not forget the effect on Iraqi moral. I don't think we can really understand how much this means to those who have been the victims of Zarqawi's terror. Here is a posting from Treasure in Baghdad that expresses renewed hope and shows just how shabby the pooh-poohing of this victory by the media and some Democrats is.
Update 2:
Zarqawi weighs in at Iowahawk.
Update 3:
The cascade begins, from Forbes
U.S. troops conducted nearly 40 raids Friday in Iraq, taking advantage of information gleaned from searches following Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s death, a military spokesman said, revealing new information about the man believed to be poised to take the terror leader’s place.
HT: Protein Wisdom
17 comments:
Sorry skook,
But I can't eat just one. The peanut wouldn't survive the first meter. However, I'll be happy to take a paid tour. All ships, planes, and accomdations must be provided.
Yeah, I'd like to know more about those 17 raids myself.
All we can do is wait and see what happens in the coming months.
Anyway, What if you're allergic to peanuts, Chuck? Try M&M's instead :)
Chuck has it right. Never apologize, never explain.
BTW - I agree Chuck - the cascade on this will finish al Queada in Iraq. Not the Baathist deadenders, though. Saddam has to be hanged (they really should have tossed a grenade in that hole) and several Sunni sheiks have to come to rather violent ends before Iraq will really settle down.
The government is now complete and some examples can be made by the new Sunni defense minister. I like that guy. He has scores to settle with the al-Tikriti clan, which makes me like him even more.
Skook,
I am curious as to whether a determination has been made that no further intelligence is required from senior al Queada members. At least in Iraq.
I agree, too. Rick, as I understand it (a) they didn't want to risk Z fleeing in a daytime raid. It is too easy to see the troops approaching, and (b) since he reputedly always wore a suicide belt, they felt it wasn't worth the risk to take him alive.
I'd have killed Saddam on the spot, too. In fact, I'd have stuck his head on a pike in downtown Iraq, but you know I'm old-fashioned.
I think you're on to something. Bush & Co. do well to lower expctations. But the sad sack Kosmics can't stand to see this.
What if the violence diminishes? The pundit class will then go on the the cost of the war and was it worth it. I have already seen a CBC graphic indicating that the hunt for Zarqawi cost $500 million. When we see the Was it Worth it? headlines, you know that the story line has changed.
Barry,
Zarq dead is great but history may make more of the completion of the Iraqi cabinet. Especially if a unified crackdown on the deadenders begins.
There may be a brief upsurge in violence and there may be one more spike when Saddam is hanged but now it's time to shift to Iran.
Did you catch this Donald Sensing sentence, highlighted @ Instapundit:
"I think that more and more Muslims will decide that Ashraf al-Akhras is right: Allah is in the game, but not on al Qaeda's side."
Buddy,
I did see that. Maybe we should close any remark concerning a desired income with inshallah. Bush could try it, too.
"Zarqawi is dead, inshallah" has a nice ring to it.
The Iraqi insurgency is now like the Vietcong after Tet.
But without the NVA Regulars, Ho Chi Minh, and General Giap, and without the Chinese and the USSR supplying the NVA down the Ho Chi Minh trail in Laos and Cambodia.
In addition, now there is a legitimate government by a bunch of elected officials who have been through a bunch of crap together, and are "jellin'".
This is something the South Vietnamese never had, what with the problems with Ky and Thieu, et al from 1967-1971.
This thing is a lot further along after 2500 US KIA than VN was after 25,000.
All very true vnjagvet, but it must be weighed against the fact that our will to win is now less than 1/10th what it was back in the Sixties.
MLH:
Not so sure. GWB is in office until January 2009. His poker hand is getting better. He will not fold 'em until he is forced to do so, and those on the other side are not capable of forcing him to do anything as is stands now.
November will tell all, I think. And Rove still hasn't been indicted. And I don't think he will be, if our friends at JOM are correct (and I have my money on them, rather than the DU gang).
He lives!
- and IDF just took out abu samhadana. Is there a competition going on here that the Public is not aware of?? Are US and IDF pilots secretly wagering with each other to see who gets who and when?
What's the score, boys??
I do believe, though, that al Qaeda in Iraq is dead. They'll pull off some revenge bombings for a while, then they'll simply fade away.
The IED's will continue for a while--but that's not al Qaeda.
al Qaeda knows it, has known for a while, that Iraq is a lost cause for them. That's why they're so busy setting up shop in gaza.
rick:
Gale agrees with you. They should have dropped a grenade down the spider hole was what he said they day they found Saddam.
MHA:
No the will to fight is not less than it was then, the question is however, is it more?
I don't think Americans today are as willing to believe the worst of our military as they were then. Well except for the dead end Baby boomers and self loathing elitists and they are not the ones who make these decisions.
Chuck might be right, sometimes things just wind down. That could happen in Iraq.
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