Bin Laden may be the head of al Qaeda, but without his lieutenants and mid-level managers who have been killed or captured, he is ineffective. He has no control over strategy. The low-level groups claiming allegiance are simply lashing out, flailing about, with no direction.
Of the two, Zawahiri and bin Laden, Zawahiri advocates for attacks in the muslim world proper, specifically in the Middle East. Zarkawi, though not in constant direct contact, does have intermittent correspondence with Zawahiri and is spreading out from Iraq (where he is losing, though still causing death and destruction) to other areas in the Levant.
Bin Laden, on the other hand, wants the West attacked.
When Osama gets the word that thousands of Jordanians (backed by Islamist groups, no less!) protested against Zarqawi and called for him to burn in hell, he will throw up his hands and scream 'NO!'. Zarqawi is turning muslims against us. We must go back to attacking the West!
And he will issue a proclamation, some kind of message, for Zarqawi's ears.
The period since just before the November election in 2004 is the longest bin Laden has ever remained silent. I think the 'record' before now was eleven months.
Depending on how long it takes to get his message out, I predict we will be hearing from bin Laden soon! He will try desparately to get back some control.
You read it here first!
Mark
ReplyDeleteAre you admitting that you don't? And that all your posturing is based on nothing at all?
Hmmmmmm....
and what I read in the papers
ReplyDeleteThere's your problem right there. If you want to read the writings of bin laden, zawahiri, and zarqawi you need the internet.
Come back when you're more informed.
Syl,
ReplyDeleteGood analysis, but I think it is very likely Bin Laden really is dead.
Mark G8,
ReplyDeleteSo, you think the translation of Bin Laden's speeches is done wrong? Do you think our government, and the other Western governments do that on purpose?
Mark G8,
ReplyDeleteWell then, she can read what Bin Laden says on the internet, because it's there. Naturally, everyone is going to have their own way of seeing things. However, we are not completely in the dark about things. If Bin Laden warns us that we are infidels, and that there will be attacks on us and our allies, we know what he means.
Unless you are an absolute postmodernist, and don't believe you can understand anything, in which case you might as well not read anything at all.
Peter
ReplyDeleteMark is just troll. He is ill-informed and only comments for the hell of it. His arguments, such as they are, are at the level of a seven-year-old. He probably doesn't even vote.
I think my posting scared him, actually. LOL
Peter
ReplyDeleteLOL
If he 'outs' me, he will only be outing my undercover cover for my covert cover of clandestine activity.
:)
Knucklehead,
ReplyDeleteI agree. Like I said, I think Syl's analysis was great. I just think Bin Laden is likely dead. So, the argument will take place, and yes, the public announcement will likely come, but I don't think it will come from Bin Laden.
Just as when a President dies in the middle of a war, Al Qaeda will simply appoint a new leader.
mark:
ReplyDeleteConsidering the number of times the Democrats let Osama get away I really don't think partisan politcs are going to work for you here. After all Bill Clinton was president when Osama made his famous fatwa saying that Muslims should kill Americans whereever they found them.
BTW, if you have some inside knowledge about the socalled Republican Senator that leaked I suggest you take it to the authorities yourself.
It is interesting how hard Republicans are on each other though, hell Democrats help each other bury the bodies. Must be that honor among thieves thing.
As for Osama I think he is probably dead and has been for some time. But it is about time for the mythic creature to crawl out from under his rock and make some kind of announcement. Even if it is the dead speaking.
Seriously I'm asking a question
ReplyDeleteSeriously?
Ask Bush.
Or else do your own homework. This isn't remedial al Qaeda class.
Knuck
ReplyDeleteZarqawi could claim the mantle. But it doesn't really matter.
It's the leadership just under the top that is important. We've been extraordinarily successful at killing and capturing them.
That's why bin laden is powerless.
And we're doing the same to Zarqawi's gang.
They end up with a head and a bunch of underlings who don't know what they're doing because we eliminate the operational middle that has the knowledge base, the technical know-how, and the tactical smarts.
And making the mistakes they do, these flailabout underlings only hurt the cause.
"...You'd think Bush would want his head on a pike to shore up his poll numbers now that he's sunk to 36% approval ratings in the latest FOX News, yes that's FOX News poll."
ReplyDelete-markg8
Clinton's poll
numbers stayed pretty
high right thru the
whole Monica/Paula Jones thing,
didn't they?
did they bother to take a poll
after he pardoned Marc Rich?
"Note the question marks Petey?
They are punctuation marks we use in English to denote questions."
-markg8
'Unless you are an absolute postmodernist, and don't believe you can understand anything, in which case you might as well not read anything at all.'
-Pastorius
if not in fact,indeed in spirit,
Mr. g8 answered your query
Pastorius,with the quote
right above it.
he's already made up his mind,
doesn't intend to change it,
and doesn't get that nobody here
is interested in his bilge.
but he's gotta vent somewhere,
and what he brings to the table
just doesn't stand out over at Kos
or DU.
m2c.
figures.
ReplyDeletethe 8 year old would want his
pal,the other 8 year old
back in the WH.
if your luck holds,
you'll get to vote for his nanny.
i'm aware Libby was Rich's atty.
Clinton pardoned the man,for pay.