This Stratfor article discusses the deteriorating diplomatic relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan in the aftermath of the raid that killed Osama Bin Laden. Both sides have some common interests, but neither side can entirely trust the either. How this crisis plays out will have a significant effect on the future of the region.
Since the act of Bin Laden getting his noggin ventilated is the prime mover in the article, I naturally turned towards female movie assassins to find this article's Hot Stratfor Babe. I selected Kristanna Loken who played T-X in the movie Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines. Although she plays a Killer Robot from the Future instead of a SEAL, I figure that results-wise, considering the ensuing mayhem, it's close enough.
In the film Loken plays the Bad Terminator that has to fight Arnold, who's the Good Terminator, as she to tries to kill John Connor once again. Frankly, the more we see of these Terminators the more they seem to be pretty much a pack of bunglers when it comes to the whole 'Killing Machine' ethos they're supposed to epitomize. Mr. Terminator has turned into a goody-two-shoes by this movie, and as for Ms Terminator completing her mission? Well, let's just say the door is open for a sequel.
As a bonus, I've embedded a video of a fight between the two Killer Robots, T-X and T-101, after the end of the article.
U.S.-PAKISTANI RELATIONS BEYOND BIN LADEN
By George Friedman, May 10, 2011
The past week has been filled with announcements and speculations on how Osama bin Laden was killed and on Washington's source of intelligence. After any operation of this sort, the world is filled with speculation on sources and methods by people who don't know, and silence or dissembling by those who do.
Obfuscating on how intelligence was developed and on the specifics of how an operation was carried out is an essential part of covert operations. The precise process must be distorted to confuse opponents regarding how things actually played out; otherwise, the enemy learns lessons and adjusts. Ideally, the enemy learns the wrong lessons, and its adjustments wind up further weakening it. Operational disinformation is the final, critical phase of covert operations. So as interesting as it is to speculate on just how the United States located bin Laden and on exactly how the attack took place, it is ultimately not a fruitful discussion. Moreover, it does not focus on the truly important question, namely, the future of U.S.-Pakistani relations.
Posturing Versus a Genuine Breach
It is not inconceivable that Pakistan aided the United States in identifying and capturing Osama bin Laden, but it is unlikely. This is because the operation saw the already-tremendous tensions between the two countries worsen rather than improve. The Obama administration let it be known that it saw Pakistan as either incompetent or duplicitous and that it deliberately withheld plans for the operation from the Pakistanis. For their part, the Pakistanis made it clear that further operations of this sort on Pakistani territory could see an irreconcilable breach between the two countries. The attitudes of the governments profoundly affected the views of politicians and the public, attitudes that will be difficult to erase.
Posturing designed to hide Pakistani cooperation would be designed to cover operational details, not to lead to significant breaches between countries. The relationship between the United States and Pakistan ultimately is far more important than the details of how Osama bin Laden was captured, but both sides have created a tense atmosphere that they will find difficult to contain. One would not sacrifice strategic relationships for the sake of operational security. Therefore, we have to assume that the tension is real and revolves around the different goals of Pakistan and the United States.
A break between the United States and Pakistan holds significance for both sides. For Pakistan, it means the loss of an ally that could help Pakistan fend off its much larger neighbor to the east, India. For the United States, it means the loss of an ally in the war in Afghanistan. Whether the rupture ultimately occurs, of course, depends on how deep the tension goes. And that depends on what the tension is over, i.e., whether the tension ultimately merits the strategic rift. It also is a question of which side is sacrificing the most. It is therefore important to understand the geopolitics of U.S.-Pakistani relations beyond the question of who knew what about bin Laden.