However, the situation with the Mexican drug cartels continue to evolve. The cartels, beneficiaries of the U.S. shutting down the Caribbean and Colombian drug routes, are beginning to expand into other criminal activities.
The result of this is cartel on cartel violence to control criminal territories rather than cartel vs the government violence. Thus, even if the government backed off its pressure, the reasons for inter-cartel violence would continue to exist, and so would the violence.
As Stewart points out, regardless of the campaign rhetoric of whoever wins events on the ground will almost certainly dictate that the government continue to try to enforce its monopoly on power. Much like Obama's anti-Bush stance was washed away by the realities of the war on Terror, so too the next Mexican President will face a battle that they must continue to fight.
For the Hot Stratfor Babe I selected Delores del Rio. She worked in Hollywood in the 1920s during the silent era, and was the first Mexican movie start to develop international stardom. Her career stumbled when the talkies arrived, but she returned to Mexico and revitalized it in 1948. amazingly, her last film role was 1978, meaning her career spanned nearly six decades.
After the article I've include a bonus video, from Bird of Paradise, of a rather scantily clad Delores del Rio doing a seductive native dance while the tribal chief leers at her and the hero sneaks around to save her.
NEW MEXICAN PRESIDENT, SAME CARTEL WAR?
By Scott Stewart, June 16, 2011
We talk to a lot of people in our effort to track Mexico's criminal cartels and to help our readers understand the dynamics that shape the violence in Mexico. Our contacts include a wide range of people, from Mexican and U.S. government officials, journalists and business owners to taxi drivers and street vendors. Lately, as we've been talking with people, we've been hearing chatter about the 2012 presidential election in Mexico and how the cartel war will impact that election.
In any democratic election, opposition parties always criticize the policies of the incumbent. This tactic is especially true when the country is involved in a long and costly war. Recall, for example, the 2008 U.S. elections and then-candidate Barack Obama's criticism of the Bush administration's policies regarding Iraq and Afghanistan. This strategy is what we are seeing now in Mexico with the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) criticizing the way the administration of Felipe Calderon, who belongs to the National Action Party (PAN), has prosecuted its war against the Mexican cartels.
One of the trial balloons that the opposition parties -- especially the PRI -- seem to be floating at present is the idea that if they are elected they will reverse Calderon's policy of going after the cartels with a heavy hand and will instead try to reach some sort of accommodation with them. This policy would involve lifting government pressure against the cartels and thereby (ostensibly) reducing the level of violence that is wracking the country. In effect, this stratagem would be a return of the status quo ante during the PRI administrations that ruled Mexico for decades prior to 2000. One other important thing to remember, however, is that while Mexico's tough stance against the cartels is most often associated with President Calderon, the policy of using the military against the cartels was established during the administration of President Vicente Fox (also of PAN), who declared the "mother of all battles" against cartel kingpins in January 2005.
While this political rhetoric may be effective in tapping public discontent with the current situation in Mexico -- and perhaps obtaining votes for opposition parties -- the current environment in Mexico is far different from what it was in the 1990s. This environment will dictate that no matter who wins the 2012 election, the new president will have little choice but to maintain the campaign against the Mexican cartels.
Changes in the Drug Flow
First, it is important to understand that over the past decade there have been changes in the flow of narcotics into the United States. The first of these changes was in the way that cocaine is trafficked from South America to the United Sates and in the specific organizations that are doing that trafficking. While there has always been some cocaine smuggled into the United States through Mexico, like during the "Miami Vice" era from the 1970s to the early 1990s, much of the U.S. supply came into Florida via Caribbean routes. The cocaine was trafficked mainly by the powerful Colombian cartels, and while they worked with Mexican partners such as the Guadalajara cartel to move product through Mexico and into the United States, the Colombians were the dominant partners in the relationship and pocketed the lion's share of the profits.
As U.S. interdiction efforts curtailed much of the Caribbean drug flow due to improvements in aerial and maritime surveillance, and as the Colombian cartels were dismantled by the Colombian and U.S. governments, Mexico became more important to the flow of cocaine and the Mexican cartels gained more prominence and power. Over the past decade, the tables turned. Now, the Mexican cartels control most of the cocaine flow and the Colombian gangs are the junior partners in the relationship.
The Mexican cartels have expanded their control over cocaine smuggling to the point where they are also involved in the smuggling of South American cocaine to Europe and Australia. This expanded cocaine supply chain means that the Mexican cartels have assumed a greater risk of loss along the extended supply routes, but it also means that they earn a far greater percentage of the profit derived from South American cocaine than they did when the Colombian cartels called the shots.
While Mexican cartels have always been involved in the smuggling of marijuana to the U.S. market, and marijuana sales serve as an important profit pool for them, the increasing popularity of other drugs in the United States in recent years, such as black-tar heroin and methamphetamine, has also helped bring big money (and power) to the Mexican cartels. These drugs have proved to be quite lucrative for the Mexican cartels because the cartels own the entire production process. This is not the case with cocaine, which the cartels have to purchase from South American suppliers. [continued after jump]
