All average global temperatures since 1895 are accurately predicted (standard deviation of concurrent measured minus predicted temperatures since 1900 is 0.064 C) by a simple model using the first law of thermodynamics and the time-integral (same as ‘running total’ if time steps are equal) of sunspot count. The effective sea surface temperature oscillation (zero change over a period) was discovered. There was no need to consider any change to the level of CO2 or any other greenhouse gas. Climate change is natural.The model, with an eye-opening graph, is presented in the October 16 pdf at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true. (The integral of the PDO Index http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest indicates a substantial measure of sea surface temperatures as does the time-integral of ENSO 3.4 but not all so replace all references to PDO with ESST for Effective Sea Surface Temperature).This model predicted the ongoing temperature decline trend. None of the 20 or so models that the IPCC uses do.The Argo float ocean temperature measurements show that global warming stopped in about 2004 (graph on pp4 of http://www.oceanobs09.net/plenary/files/Wijffels_HeatContentTemperature_2Aa_vfinal.pdf ).
I keep thinking of the stories you'll read from time to time about apoclypic groups. Their leader will declare the time and date of the end of the world. When it comes they'll sell their belongings, sit on hill top and wait for endOf course they are still waiting the next morning. Surprizingly they don't strangle their prophet. Instead, some drift away and manyb buy his next line.I think we'll see something similar. All hail the Goracle.
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