A weekend market in Nepal

This video is a walk through a market in eastern Nepal. It is a weekend rather than a daily market, so I suspect it is much more of a social event than regular daily shopping. It certainly is crowded, and the crowd is cheerful and energetic.

 

Walking at the Pak Khlong Flower Market

The walk starts in a regular market in Bangkok, Thailand and the moves to the part of the market that sells flowers. I half expected to see Chompoo, Peun, Prim, Foon and Art, but it looked like it was early in the morning so maybe they were sleeping off one of their benders at Go's bar.

OK, enough of my stupid jokes. It was filmed in December of 2020. The mask usage seems to be fairly random.

 

Buffet In?

Maybe.

If he is, then a careful reading of the Panic of '07 that leads MHA's post just below is in order. Mauldin calls for Buffet to step in and restore confidence by buying Moody's

Second, the rating agencies need to restore their credibility. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns about 19% of Moody's. I would suggest that Mr. Buffett step in take over the company (much as he did with Salomon years ago) and put his not inconsiderable credibility on the line for all future ratings and the inevitable re-ratings that are going to be done.

The Panic of 1907 was solved by the credibility of one man, J. P. Morgan, who stepped in to provide liquidity. The Panic of 2007 is not a problem caused by lack of liquidity. It is a problem caused by lack of credibility. Morgan could (and did) provide liquidity. Buffett can (and should) provide credibility.

Countrywide isn't Moody's but Buffet would still be sending a very strong signal. Maybe even stronger than if he did buy the rest of Moody's. Remember the S & L Crisis? I recall estimates that it was a $500 billion dollar problem (it actually came to about $150 billion). That was in 1988 and the equivalent today would be $870 billion. According to Mauldin's charts (but my calculations) a 100% loss on all the Liar's mortgages would come to around $324 billion - and I think that's overstated. A 50% loss would be chump change in a $14 trillion dollar economy.

Builders already cut back to 2002 levels in '06 and are headed for 1996 levels. The total "overbuild" in SFR's looks like 500K units so we could see a building turnaround by next May. If the hysteria doesn't drive buyers into a huddle.

If Buffet actually has come in then the "bottom" has been called. We'll know in a few days.

PANIC ON WALL STREET!!!!

Or, mebbee not. Well, if there wasn't a real panic today, maybe there will be one tomorrow. Except.... if mortgage defaults are going to drive the economy to its knees, why didn't delinquencies jump in the first quarter? And why aren't home values in a much larger slump?

There is no denying that sales are way off, new starts are off and permits aren't improving but prices are only slipping very, very slightly on a national basis.

I may be missing something but this looks like a bottom to me. I have felt that the smash talk on home prices was a political counter to the "ownership society" for some time and I've wondered how the DEMSM would handle it through the '08 election. Fear is a good driver when the opposition controls both the Executive and the Legislative branches but shared responsibility has to cut into fear mongering.

Any bets on whether the Dems propose "save the flakes" credit legislation this fall? Moral hazard is meaningless to them, so they might make another run at it.