Final NH Polling

Tuesday, January 08, 2008
I'll update with results for comparison later. Right now I'm entranced with a vision of legs projecting from under a house dropped by a tornado.

UPDATE: Unfortunately, the legs belonged to polling companies. I'm surprised that Obama supporters haven't filed suit this morning in New Hampshire. Doesn't deviation from polling results constitute prima facie evidence of election fraud?

No polling company beat the "average" prediction. I rank the rest as follows: Fox, Zogby, Rasmussen, Marist, Suffolk, CNN, ARG. CNN and ARG really do stink up the place. I'm a little surprised at Rasmussen. His diversification may be interfering with the acuity with which he generally tunes his models. Or perhaps people are even lying to robo polls concerning their probability of voting for blacks or Mormons?

7 comments:

Knucklehead said...

Rick,

The most fun will be watching those legs and feet shrivel away when the ruby slippers are snatched away.

I refuse to follow this thing closely until the herd is thinned a bit. Has Guliani even bothered campaigning in Iowa and NH?

Rick Ballard said...

Knuck,

Prolly a wise choice. Giuliani was in NH over the weekend and stayed through this morning (I think). He didn't spend any money there. He's pointing at FL and Super Tuesday.

Barry Dauphin said...

Well the only polls that count have spared her for at least another day. Not that I didn't warn people.

loner said...

Rick—

It sounds like everybody was taken by surprise on the Democratic side. There's a report that the internal tracking of both campaigns had him up by double digits today. Thanks for the support at JOM.

I tried earlier this evening to suggest that you add the Fox News poll from 1/6 to your graph, but blogger didn't like my password for some reason. Not a good night for pollsters.

Best.

loner said...

Rick—

I suspected that overall Fox News came the closest in a bad couple of days for pollsters. Of course, it wasn't a good couple of days for most prognosticators.

I do know one thing for sure after last night. If I have the chance to see one of the candidates speak, I want it to be Obama. I might even drive a very long distance.

I'll always wish I had a recording of the woman who read Romans 8:31-39 at my father's Funeral Mass in 1992. She was incredible.

Best.

Rick Ballard said...

Loner,

The current SC polling is certainly a headscratcher. Has the Huckabubble really popped or is McCain getting an extraordinary boost from what wasn't really that strong a victory? I might be off on that - it may have been strong enough to push Romney out but I wonder if McCain has the stamina required to reach the goal line.

loner said...

Rick—

Maybe we're finally getting a sense of what it's like to have truly competitive races on both sides, or, more likely, what it's like to have most everything decided in a span of under 40 days. So far, nothing that could honestly be termed a strategy has worked and South Carolina looks a lot like Iowa and New Hampshire did as the date for voting approached. The polling is all over the place and nothing much matches up. It's all very interesting in a head scratching way.

One thing we already know for sure though this time is that the pros (and what a motley crew they are) don't have a clue either. As a result, I've gone back to scanning headlines and reading books.

Best.