"Production occupations" encompass all of what would have been considered manufacturing jobs during the 'industrial age' and does not address occupations relating to the 'information age' in a manner consonant with an understandable definition of "production". Instead the "production worker" of the information age is booted up to "Professionals and related occupations" or "Management, business, and financial operations". Thus Robert Reich can babble interminably about "millions of jobs lost to outsourcing" while blithely ignoring the many more millions of jobs created through the transition from an industrial (read "Union, Union, Union") economy to an information economy. The GDP number indicates that we are "producing" a great deal more (76%) of something today than we were in 1983 - and that the labor component of that production has dropped sharply as a component of total cost.While I agree wholeheartedly with the central thesis that outsourcing has become integrated today, I wonder where the workers will come from should more companies come to the same decision regarding opening plants in the US? As Morgan has noted, the workforce cannot grow much further over the next 8-10 years without an increase in the total participation rate beyond historical highs.
ENDNOTE: Did you know that the GDP had grown by 14.6% after eight years when Bubba's Bubble popped while it has grown 13.7% at six years under President Bush's tenure? If it continues to grow over the next two years as it has over the past six it will have increased by 17.9% when President Bush leaves office. Somehow I doubt that the news will make the papers....
14 comments:
There is the demographic problem but relative to the four horsemen (tax, trade, monetary, & regulatory policy)that from a Democrat DC threaten the global economy, it's minor--as it self-adjusts to conditions, unlike policy fiats that kill markets.
Personally, I've always thought that the main problem here is that, for instance, a small company orders an accounting package that comes on a CD from a vendor (reseller) from whom they can get a discount and when it doesn't come they spend hours and hours on the phone with nice people who are obviously not in the United States trying to find out when it will come and then trying to get their credit card credited because they've gone elsewhere to purchase it at no discount. Not that I have had that happen or anything.
Those types of problems will sort themselves out over time and the world, from a communications and transportation point of view, will continue to get smaller and smaller.
There will be jobs and there will be bodies to fill them...whether those bodies speak English or need a translator is another matter. Crap products, sent off to landfills without a second thought, and the companies which sell them in bulk will continue to proliferate. Politicians will continue to tax, borrow, spend and pander whenever and wherever they can. The media will continue to get nearly everything wrong. The quality of service in restaurants will continue to decline.
The quality of service in restaurants will continue to decline. That one depresses me.
LOL
Loner, any drier and we'd dessicate before the nut graf--
Loner,
Look on the bright side - when you drop down to Oregon you get your gas pumped for FREE! Sure, the attendant is a surly mumbling lout but FREE SERVICE is nothing to sneer at.
Buddy,
They don't have the votes to override a veto. That is, if the President ever signs one.
Rick, the present danger is from the pressure to 'make a deal'. Remember how George Mitchell maneuvered (swindled) Poppa.
Buddy,
Which time?
I share your concern about the President's willingness to compromise - McCain/Feingold comes to mind. The hope is that the realization that there is very little to gain is sinking to the marrow.
oh, me too, hate em.
It's also cheaper on the other side of the Columbia, which, IIRC, was not the case across another river, the Delaware, when a Pennsylvanian found himself short of gas, and lawfully unable to pump it himself, in New Jersey. Probably taxes.
These days I'm using maybe five to ten gallons a month. In Los Angeles I was using between 75 and 100 gallons a month. I've gotten gas (I haven't filled up since I've been here) three times in Washington and three times in Oregon during the past three months. If Mount Hood is visible and I feel the need to bring the needle above the quarter mark, I cross the river and stay reasonably warm while an attendant does my bidding.
And yet, I miss L.A.
Loner
Have you heard of a burg up your way named La Center? I lived 9 miles northwest of there, for 12 years, a while back. If she's still there check out Anne's berry farm. U-pick blue and straw berries, and she doesn't count what you eat in the field.
If you can stand the weather, the place will grow on you. Then again, it is not LA.
Skook
You are correct on the "only two polities." If I remember correctly they had a couple of votes in Oregon to change the law, but obviously the voter's said no.
"the place will grow on you."
A good fungicide will help control that problem. When I get up there I'm gonna put a "Let There Be Light" bumpersticker on one side and a "Stihl" bumpersticker on the other. That or '42" Bars Are for Sissies'.
Rick
LOL on the "A good fungicide." And if you do the "42 in." you will fit right in.
I would not have moved had it been my choice alone. But the better five- eights family called. I now enjoy my seven months of perfect, my two of unpredictable and my three of, damn its hot.
Nice article, Rick.
My wife so hates the Carl's Jr. milkshake commercials that you'd almost think she took the job up here to escape them. The first time one came on she practically wailed: They have Carl's Jr. here? By that time, I even knew where. Interestingly enough, I stumbled upon that one on this side of the river while looking for a health food store. Suddenly, I think to myself: Isn't that store next to Borders called Wild Oats Natural Market Place? Talk about focusing. I was looking for a health food store because someone told my wife that unfiltered apple cider vinegar in sufficient amounts does something good to good cholesterol or bad to bad cholesterol and somebody who took blood out of me told me something needed to be done about my count. They suggested drugs. I'm trying vinegar and, as the blood pressure drug is in short supply and that one I know I need, I'll have to go to those people who took blood out of me and have them do it again.
I'm taking notes (thanks Luther & Skook for the recommendations) for when I'm on the drugs and/or sufficiently unfocused.
Best.
Terrific chart. That this whole meme of deindustrializing our way to poverty gets so much press is a real disapointment.
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