Jaime Irons asked for my thoughts regarding polling and the election the other day and this post is a response.
I cannot do better than Jay Cost did on the 22nd with regard to polling. There is no trend. Add Rasmussen to the Gallup results and the answer is the same.
So. What's going on? In my opinion, the malleable portion of the electorate, the inchoate Muddle, has steadfastly refused to be drawn into the political drama this year. The 24/7/365 campaign mode just isn't exciting enough to hold the electorate's attention. Factor in the drop in the main stream media's reputation, plus its drop in readership and viewership levels and "flat line" polling makes even more sense.
When I look at the coming election, my thoughts turn to Bill Clinton and his grabbing a candidacy which no one (in 1991) wanted to tackle, due to the conventional wisdom concerning George H. W. Bush's extraordinary popularity following the first Gulf War. That same lack of desire manifested itself on the Republican side this time with McCain taking his best shot because his age made it his last shot.
Accross the aisle, Hillary Clinton seriously underestimated both her unpopularity among Democrats and the resources available to her opponent. MoveOn made good on its boast to have purchased the Democrat party by mobilizing the ACORN/SEIU elements which Dean had successfully used in the 2006 election to pick up 12-16 seats which the Republican's failure to deal effectively with ethics issues had left vulnerable. The ACORN/SEIU thugs were very successful in the caucus states this year, beginning in Iowa and putting the race effectively out of Clinton's reach on Super Tuesday.
In my opinion, the outcome of the election will depend upon the inchoate Muddle learning the answer to the question posed in the title. If they come to realize that Obama was selected by Bill Ayers in 1995 as a front man for the theft and misuse of funds meant to improve the atrocious schools in Chicago, then John McCain will be sworn in in January. If the media and the Copperhead faction of the Democrat party succeed in concealing the fact that Obama owes his "career" to leftists and slumlords like convicted felon Tony Rezko, then there is a good possibility that Obama will win.
That's not the cheeriest of news but there are signs that the coverup of the Ayers/Obama relationship is beginning to unravel. As you read about Obama's role in the Chicago Annenberg Challenge please remember that he assumed the presidency and chairmanship of CAC in roughly the same period that Ayers hosted a cocktail party celebrating his "entrance into electoral politics". That isn't a coincidence. Nor is Obama's reluctance to highlight the only executive experience to be found in his entire brief but lackluster life an oversight.
UPDATE: of course, I could have just linked Barone. If I had read him first. Serendipty is always serendipitous.