Friday, May 05, 2006

Shifting Sands - Ohio Primaries

Michael Barone did an excellent overview piece on the Ohio primaries, paying particular attention to statewide turnout and the contrast between previous primary results and the general election which follows.

His concluding statement has an air of prophecy:

Somehow, despite all the discouraging news and dismal poll numbers, there are a lot of plodding, dull, dutiful people, too stubborn to take instruction from their betters in the mainstream media, who insist on going out and voting Republican. Hard to explain. But that's what the numbers seem to say.


A more detailed review of the results on a district by district basis reveal that there are two (out of twelve Republican districts) in which Democrats can be said to have any hopes at all of picking up seats. Ney (OH-18) will have difficulty should he decide to stay in competition through November (although he did still hold an edge in total votes cast in the primary) and LaTourette (OH-14) is in a similiar condition. The third 'targeted' candidate is Pryce in OH-15 but her base support is unwavering and the possibility of a Dem pickup is close to nil.

There have been rumors that Ney will withdraw in plenty of time for a substitute to be selected and should that occurr the district's strong Republican registration edge should carry his replacement into office. LaTourette is facing a law professor who has published enough to provide ample material which his strongly Republican (Bush 63%) district will be given opportunity to examine very closely. The Democratic candidate in the 18th is Zack Space - a divorce (oops - "family law") attorney. Great pick, nothing like starting with both feet in a bucket.

Ohio was announced as a 'focus' state for Democratic efforts. The current Republican administration in the state has been notable both in its ineptitude and in its inability to hew to ethical standards. Ney is closely tied to the Abramoff scandal and the convergence of scandal was (in theory) sufficient to motivate voters to switch.

If Tuesday's results are any measure, the Democrats better polish up 'Plan B' because 'Plan A' appears to have been formulated upon unfounded assumptions.

5 comments:

loner said...

It's May.

Nonetheless, Dennis the Peasant, I sense, knows Ohio better than both Hugh and Michael.

Best.

Rick Ballard said...

Loner,

It is May. Things can change and I think that I might have mentioned that from time to time. It is rather evident that the Dem Plan A is dependent upon a groundswell that shows up in the for hire polls but seems invisible at the actuall polls.

I didn't mention Blackwell or Hewitt and I don't particularly disagree with that DtP has to say concerning Blackwell.

loner said...

rick—

Lakers-Suns has me thinking too much.

Nevermind.

Unknown said...

One thintg the Ohio Republicans have going for them is the Ohio Democrats.

Rick Ballard said...

DT,

If Ohio was actually a big 'focus' state then their candidate selection process needs a bit of work. In the four districts where they have a prayer the candidates are:

OH-14 - law professor
OH-15 - public interest lawyer
OH-16 - pastor
OH-18 - divorce lawyer

Three lawyers and a pastor. Last time I looked Congress was chuck full of lawyers, what kind of positive 'change' might be effected by adding three more? I could understand a pastor, based simply on the premise that prayer is the only remaining hope.

There's still plenty of time for a big Rep screwup and there's always the possibility that the Dems have crafted a "a car in every pot and two chickens in every garage" plan that might be as effective as the Contract With America. Not a huge possibility but we'll have to wait and see.