Watching Pakistan

Tuesday, September 04, 2007
I hope you all are keeping an eye on Pakistan. A while back I predicted that the country was likely to descend into civil war and recent events confirm me in that opinion. The main question I have at this point is whether there will be a revolution, either through a coup or large scale rebellion, or whether there will be a war between ethnic groups and/or geographic areas, and/or city and countryside. I don't know nearly enough about the country to make a guess on that score. But one thing I do know: Musharraf's temporizing will not buy him peace, nor will it gain him much time. If he hopes to put together a coalition of resistance he better hurry, not least because his apparent vacillation and weakness is going to repel potential supporters and encourage a split in the Army.

2 comments:

Rick Ballard said...

One might wonder if India will team up with Israel to 'resolve' the nuclear issue. Wretchard has a post up which refers to this analysis.

It would be nice if someone else played 'ride the tiger' for a bit.

MeaninglessHotAir said...

I think it's very unlikely for India to provoke Pakistan into a nuclear war. But possible, of course.