Shifting Sands - PA Senate Race

Thursday, May 04, 2006
In the fall, Rick Santorum was counted as a goner - Bob Casey had a very strong lead of over 11% and Santorum's numbers had slipped well below the 50% point which indicates danger for an incumbent. It's spring now though, and the most recent polls indicate signs of intelleigent life in Pennsylvania. Santorum maintains a two to one cash on hand edge over Casey and Casey's pro-life stand has made him persona non grata to quite a number of Democratic fund raisers.

The poll also highlighted the current schizophrenia afflicting those who respond to polls - 53% are in favor of 'throwing the bums out' while 50% say 'but not my bum'. That number is a little low historically, usually my bum draws 55% or so.

A sign of impending change? Yes - if the percentages hold up through Labor Day. And Labor Day is only 120 days away - what could change?

8 comments:

CF said...

And don't forget the power of Swann. I think Santorum will pull it off.(Rumor is Rendell doesn't care for Casey and won't do much to help him.)

Fresh Air said...

The statistics on Senate elections are very clear: When incumbents are running, there are only two cases where challengers have even a chance to win: (1) when there are personal scandals; (2) where there are national scandals. (And usually the effect of the latter has nothing to do with incumbents, except to make them consider retirement, e.g. 1974.)

Santorum has not been guilty of (1) and only guilty of (2) from the standpoint of the liberal media, which believes every Republican, ipso facto is scandalous because they belong to the same party as Chimpy McCoke$poon. (Conrad Burns, however, is probably cooked.)

The only exception I'm aware of to this is Tom Daschle. We could call this the Red/Blue Exception, where senators in states that are decidedly fixed for the other party are eventual goners. This outcome, however, has not yet been repeated, and cuts both ways. Taken to its logical conclusion, under the Red/Blue Exception the GOP would gain in North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana, Nebraska and Florida. The Mediacrats would gain in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania (perhaps) and Maine. It's hard to say what would become of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Louisiana.

Note that this has already played out quite a bit, with solid shifts toward the presidential inclination in New York, Illinois, Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, N. and S. Carolina and Alabama.

Perhaps more to the point, I see little chance of the GOP incumbents losing seats where this alignment has already occurred, specifically Ohio and Missouri. On the flip side, it strikes me as unlikely the Republicans will win either Nelson's seat because there is no scandal.

Any way you cut it, however, as long as the Northeastern liberal GOP senators say Republican, if in name only, the Media will not be regaining the Senate any time soon, if ever.

One other thing: Barone is now saying he expects Republicans to continue to vote pretty much as they have and not stay home because they are supposedly demoralized. For what it's worth.

terrye said...

I don't think much will change in Indiana because it is Indiana. The land that time forgot.

David Thomson said...

“And don't forget the power of Swann. I think Santorum will pull it off.(Rumor is Rendell doesn't care for Casey and won't do much to help him.)”

Lynn Swann may be the number one reason. Does Rendell care for Casey? If nothing else, the current governor believes in self preservation. Casey’s pro-life credentials will not be tolerated by the hard left. Jay Cost has convinced me that the Republicans have little to worry about in November.

Peter UK said...

American politics confuse me,"Casey's pro-life stand has made him persona non grata to quite a number of Democratic fund raisers." Does this mean that Democratic fund raisers are pro-death?

terrye said...

Peter:

Long time no see.

loner said...

Rendell beat Casey for the Democrat nomination for Governor four years ago. A significant victory, that.

Peter UK said...

Hi Terrye,
Mozilla lost all my bookmarks,something it is prone to do every so often,so I've been gradually putting them all back.