The "Opinionated Bastard"…

Tuesday, December 13, 2005
puts the recent BBC/ABC poll into graphical form.


  1. 77 percent of Iraqis say their lives are good.


  2. 52 percent says their lives are better. Only around 30 percent say their lives are worse.

    (And is it just me, or does that not sound like about the percentage of Sunni?)

  3. 65 percent expect life next year to be better.


  4. While 53 percent say things in Iraq today are "quite bad" or "very bad", 48 percent say it's better than it was under Saddam.


  5. 69 percent expect Iraq as a whole to be better a year from today.


  6. 71 percent want a unified government in Bagdad. 74 percent want the government to be a democracy (versus 25 percent who want an Islamic government of religious leaders.)


  7. 76 percent think the December elections will create a stable government.


Judith Apter Klinghoffer makes two interesting points as well:

When asked what would be the worst thing that could happen to Iraq in the next 12 months, only 8.9% chose "occupation not leaving Iraq."

When asked what would be the best thing that could happen to Iraq in the next 12 months, only 5.7% chose American forces leaving Iraq.

7 comments:

terrye said...

I don't think it was asked in this poll... but in every poll I have seen the majority of the Iraqi people are glad Saddam is gone. In fact the majority wants him dead.

I did note that after the President's speech yesterday the AP latched onto the 30 thousand number. All that good stuff and they make a headline out of the one bad thing.

I saw that exchange and a reporter asked how many Iraqis had died, the president responded that the insurgents had killed about 30,000 if I remember correctly.[and he mentioned the number of our dead as well]

Which might have some bearing on these numbers and the even better numbers in the other recent polls. The Iraqis are blaming the insurgents for a lot of the killing.

One poll said the number of Iraqis with cell phones has grown from 6% to 64% in the last couple of years, personal wealth has grown as well. All kinds of things are going on over there besides car bombs.

I do hope we can bring our people home soon, but the most important thing is to complete the mission. The Iraqis deserve a chance.

David Thomson said...

“I did note that after the President's speech yesterday the AP latched onto the 30 thousand number. All that good stuff and they make a headline out of the one bad thing.”

One can actually make that 30,000 number sound like a good thing. There are about 27 million people living in Iraq. The figure you cite represents far less than 1% of the total population. Looking at the situation from a coldly analytical, big picture perspective, this is a very small price to pay. Moreover, how many Iraqis would have died had Saddam Hussein remained in power? This is especially a valid question concerning children younger than 5 years old.

markg8 said...

This poll is a mess. I read the BBC version of it and the methodology is all screwed up. You can read whatever you want into it. But at least they tried. I think taking a decent poll in Iraq is almost impossible anyway. People who've lived under a Stalinist thug for 30 years have a reflexive reaction to say what they think the powers that be want to hear.

They're think things are going well for themselves but for their country 52% say it's going very or quite badly. 50.3% think the invasion was absolutely or somewhat wrong. When it comes to which organisations they trust Iraqi religious leaders come out on top with a combined 67.4% "quite a lot, a great deal". Occupation Forces get a whopping 54.6% "none at all".

Look at question #12. When asked "what is the single biggest problem you are facing in your life today" the big winner at 30.7% is "no problem/no single biggest problem". Now what kind of answer is that? Do 30.7% have no probs or is it 30.7% have too many to list? Sheesh.

When giving credit for reconstruction efforts "no one" wins with 36.7% of the vote.

I hope their election goes well and I hope their new government is seen as legitimate by Iraqis. I'm sure the Kurds would gladly host any bases we supposedly need in Iraq and
we can get the rest of our people the hell out and let them get on with their lives.

Seneca the Younger said...

This poll is a mess. I read the BBC version of it and the methodology is all screwed up. You can read whatever you want into it. But at least they tried. I think taking a decent poll in Iraq is almost impossible anyway. People who've lived under a Stalinist thug for 30 years have a reflexive reaction to say what they think the powers that be want to hear.

But Mark, you were citing the "80 percent of Iraqis hate us" poll just the other day. (A poll which, by the way, no one seems to be able to tracxk down. Can you find me a citation to the actual poll?)

You wouldn't want us to think that your position on polls is "whatever I agree with is a good poll"?

In this poll, the results seem pretty plausible: they think things have gotten better, they're not happy with the occupation, they think they can govern themselves, and they want the US to leave as soon as they can secure Iraq themselves.

markg8 said...

You'll have to google the Brit military poll Seneca.

Seeing as we provide no security for the Iraqi people getting out sooner than later is the best option.

Seneca the Younger said...

You'll have to google the Brit military poll Seneca.

I have: I see lots of people citing it, but the poll itself doesn't show up. Just lots of hearsay.

Your other point -- that we'd provide better security by simply pulling out -- is stupid.

markg8 said...

Seneca you see lots of people citing the poll. Do you see any mention from the UK government denying these reports?

We'lll just have to differ on that last point.