`SECTION 2. Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution, nor the constitution of any State, shall be construed to require that marriage or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon any union other than the union of a man and a woman.'The Democrat response is as predictable as sunrise. It will be interesting to watch media coverage of this proposal. The Democrats are primed to run with Haditha = MyLai (with film footage thoughtfully provided by their al Queada or Sunni insurgent allies) and it is very difficult to say which story is going to dominate with regard to public opinion.
New media will be focused on the Marriage Amendment as an example of the Republican Senate keeping a promise. I believe that the House is going to reject the 'amnesty' language in the Senate immigration bill but I also think that a compromise will be proposed that is going to square the circle and allow passage of an immigration bill of some sort prior to the election recess. The Marriage Amendment is going to get immigration off the table for a bit while the House works on the sausage.
The Marriage Amendment passage is going to affect Senate races in PA, OH, MN and MD favorably for Republicans. It's going to be very entertaining to watch Ford dance on this one in TN but I don't rate his chances very highly no matter what he does. There may also be some minor impact on Cantwell's campaign in WA if she votes no. It will help Santorum a bit in PA but Casey is going to wax enthusiastic (truthfully) as well. Casey's problem is that his enthusiasm will not be well received by the Emily's List contingent of the Democrat base. DeWine will be clubbing Sherrod Brown with this right up 'til the election. Brown is a knee jerk lib of the first water and Ohioans are not at all fond of redefining marriage.
A couple of Minneapolis Star-Tribune articles highlight the reason that the Marriage Amendment may impact the Senate race there. The Strib's polling has been notorious both for its sloppiness and for its favoritism towards the Dems. If they can't jigger the numbers to make the Dems appear ascendant then the Dems have a larger problem than the article implies. The probable Dem candidate is Klobuchar, who has solid gold Emily's List credentials. Her probable opponent, Mark Kennedy, will be pressing her on this in the same manner that DeWine will press Brown.
Watch the dearth of stories about this in the presse ancien. It's going to be a hoot.
8 comments:
DT,
The huge problem in PA is crooked election officials in Philly and Pittsburg. Rendell is a cheap hustler who will be working very hard to make sure that Philly churns out another 103% turnout.
FA,
An act is subject to review by the Supremes while an Amendment is not. I have no idea if the Amendment will pull 2/3's support in Congress (well, actually I think it will) and getting to 3/4's in the states may be a bit tough but it sure provides a handy political club. A good counter to the My Lai redux move by the seditionists.
And it's not subject to discovery of an emanation from a penumbra by 5 of the Supremes.
rick:
I hope you are right. And since you often are, I am keeping my fingers crossed.
I can not really get into the whole marriage debate. But I know people who are very much in favor of banning gay marriage.
As for immigration, I am keeping my fingers crossed for compromise.
They're not sure they'll get fifty votes for the amendment in the Senate and the vote will have negligible impact anywhere and everywhere this Fall.
Pennsylvania is trending Democratic and unless Rendell does something really stupid, which knowing him (easily the saviest politician in the commonwealth) is highly unlikely, he'll keep his job. I'm not going to totally count Santorum out at this point, but he's really going to have to get all the breaks to survive and right now he's not getting many.
FA,
Has the 'no review' bit ever been tested? The argument made by Quirk sounds reasonable and the Article you cite seems appropriate but the fellows who found an emanation in a penumbra don't get high marks on trust from me.
He's right about Amendments though - it takes a great deal of effort to get them passed, and rightfully so. That doesn't change the politics involved and blockage of the proposed amendment will have a cost - whether it's Dems or RINOs.
FA,
My faith in non-interference by the Federal judiciary in state matters has suffered greatly since 1964. A casual study of the abuse of the commerce clause leads away from the concept that states rights can easily be reclaimed.
If the amendment is killed in the Senate perhaps the Hostettler Act can be pried out of judiciary.
Rick, there IS a lot of vote fraud in Pennsylvania, but I hear Rendell hates Casey and will not help him.
Rendell is on the ticket, too. If Swann gets anywhere near him in the polls then I would anticipate that Rendell would call Street for help. Maybe the DoJ will sideline Street prior to the election - or maybe Street will be a bit more cautious in getting out 103% of the vote.
Fraud can be a bigger problem in mid-terms than in Presidential years and it's tough to say now what Street will do.
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