Friday, March 23, 2007


The following graph is taken from the Pew Report linked by Pajamas Media.

It's hard to believe that 50% self-identify as Democratic/leaning. But then again, polls have been "oversampling" Democrats by about that margin and perhaps they are not fudging the data but merely reflecting what they see as the fraction of Democrats in the country. Looking at the report, the trend seems to be due to a decrease in the number of folks identifying as Republican and an increase in the number of Independents leaning Democratic. The number of self-identified Democrats has remained constant at about 33%. Hmm. Wonder if Nancy Pelosi is indeed misjudging the public or if she is onto something. We shall see. Much could depend on perceived success in Iraq and how the media reports it.


terrye said...

Pollsters use ths kind of feedback to judge who they will call for their polls. If they make the determination that there are more Democrats then they will call more Democrats...this reinforcing the idea.

I read somewhere that Independents are the fastest growing group.

And I think that conservatives have done the Repubican party a disservice here in a way. By insisting that the party be loyal to its base, that is be more nativist or conservative they have given moderates the idea that the party does not want them. But I don't think that is really the case, look at Rudy. I think rank and file Republicans are a good deal less ideological than many of the people speaking for the party. People like Coulter.

At the same time I don't think that most Americans really feel comfortable with Pelosi. She is alien around here as Chirac. But the local Democrats are not like that. So the Democrats have done a better job of appearing saner than they are the Republicans are doing the opposite.

These things but I doubt very much if half the country is Democrat, if they were Pelosi would have done better than a 6 vote majority.

terrye said...

These things change, I meant to say. It is not even 6 am I am doing well to see the keyboard.

buddy larsen said...

Ach, what a gloom-inducing pair of red & blue lines. Guess it's time to go fishin', and think about close-in things, like dinner & the shrubbery.

Unknown said...

We'll see.

I recently registered as a Republican. I had never been registered with a party before, although before 2004 I voted only for Democrats.

The next eighteen months are going to be brutal.

Bostonian said...

Ack, that last one was from me.

Rick Ballard said...

A great illustration of the true value of the "middle". The Reps need to develop a decent 'salt, fodder and water' message for '08. They really can't depend on the Democrats doing something stupid enough to drive off the cattle.

terrye said...



Reliapundit said...

this is like taking a poll about the financial future on a day the market tanks: it's more a reflection of MOOD than anything else.

when the mood is good than the party in the WH does well.

the dems in congress are the anti-status quo folks so as there is great anxiety now they get the swing/mood voter.

moods shift very easily these days.

except for the hard core.

and the hardcore only amounts to 35% for the GOP and 35% for them dems.

of these hardcore dems MORE AND MORE are the loony left of sheehan and this is why the are in big trouble.

they will nominate another mcgovern and lose again.

until joe lieberman and zell miller - and mccain-ish/rudy-ish fokks can feel at home i9n the dem party they will not win.

REMEMBER: their victory last november came because they ran pro life and pro gun moderates.

without this at the top of the ticket they don't have a chance.

thank God.

buddy larsen said...

I hope to heaven you're right, reliapundit.