Friday, January 13, 2006

48 Hour Clock Running.....

Happy birthday to you. Happy birthday to you. Happy birthday dear Zawa... whoops - the candles got blown out.

UPDATE: more details

Zawahiri probably should have been a bit more circumspect in claiming that troop withdrawal as an AQ victory - although Murtha agrees.

UPDATE: Pakis promise report within hours

38 comments:

Unknown said...

When will we know for sure?

Rick Ballard said...

Well, it's 9AM Sat. in Karachi so they've started to scrape up some evidence. There were theoretically 18 bodies to sort through but the article doesn't say how that was determined or how it was known that five AQ leaders were among the bodies.

If he's not badly scattered it might be a few hours - if he's in bits and pieces it could be two weeks.

Unknown said...

18? I thought it was only five.

I had hoped it would not take so long.

Who will speak for AlQaida if this guy is a goner? Osama is gone from view...I guess that just leaves Zarqawi. I hope his number is up soon too. God forgive me.

Syl said...

The one thing that concerns me, well there are a couple of things, is that residents in the area are reported to have said they've seen unmanned planes circling the area for a few days.

If they saw them, then, well, so did the AQ guys and they would have stayed far away.?

Pakistani govt is saying 50/50 chance there were even AQ guys there (let alone Zawahiri).

But, man, are my fingers crossed tight.

Severe weather heading this way--in the middle of January! Ouch. I've had the air conditioning on 4 or 5 days this Jan. But our NWS guy said he looked up the last time there were so many succesive days of rain in the Northwest, half a century ago, and the weather in our area of VA was much warmer than normal then too.

The more things change..,

Morgan said...

From the "update" link:

The officials said that killing Zawahri or bin Laden would be a "major victory in the war on terror," as one put it, but they acknowledged that it probably wouldn't cripple al-Qaida or significantly reduce the threat of new terrorist attacks.

From the sound of the rest of the statement, it sounds like they got the verbs mixed up. Should read "The officials acknowledged that killing Zawahri or bin Laden would be a "major victory in the war on terror," as one put it, but they said that it probably wouldn't cripple al-Qaida or significantly reduce the threat of new terrorist attacks.

Syl said...

Well, it's looking less and less likely to me. Of course one never knows what's true and what's disinformation. Kinda fun trying to figure it out from the various reports.

Reuters: A Pakistani intelligence source said he had been told by U.S. officials the strike was ordered based on information Zawahri and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar had been invited to a dinner to celebrate this week's Muslim Eid al-Adha festival.

I'm inclined to believe Zawahiri wouldn't accept the invitation.

Interesting that there are 'missing' bodies. :) Hmmm, wonder where they went.

Unknown said...

God says we should love our enemies, that is one of the things that makes us different.

But hey, I am only human.

Syl said...

Another day, another bomb aftermath pr offensive.

AP is reporting that two senior Pakistani officials are saying Zawahiri was not there.

That seems to be because the reporting on the ground says all bodies are identified as locals. But, earlier an intelligence official had told AP that five bodies had been removed for DNA testing. So they weren't left behind to be identified by locals.

Of course, that intelligence official could have been lying.

Or those bodies on visual examination proved to be locals and not foreigners and the Pak government was notified. Though I doubt that would happen so soon.

All the locals in this report say they have nothing to do with terrorists. But an earlier report (reuters maybe, I don't remember) quoted a local saying there had been a couple foreigners around.

Soooooo...if five bodies were removed early on they could be AQ, one could be Zawahiri, or they could all be locals.

Or no body was removed. No AQ guys were blown away. Another day, another hellfire missile.

BTW, I was trying to locate the area in Google maps. I couldn't find it (direction from Islamabad was reported in one article as northeast, another as southeast) but I found Kunar province (which this town 'overlooks' and a mtn peak with a name similar to the area the town is in.

But what I love about snooping around that area is the terrain. My god! It's something else. I found a river with a cliff that rises over 2000 feet. It's like that all over.

Syl said...

terrye

God says we should love our enemies, that is one of the things that makes us different.

We can understand why and how somebody does something. We can even empathize and fear we might do the same under identical circumstances. We can understand brainwashing and being so consumed by ideological fever that we act on false beliefs.

I think in that way we do love our enemies. But that does not mean we shouldn't punish them. And it doesn't mean we shouldn't kill them before they kill us.

You cannot turn the other cheek if you have no cheeks left.

Syl said...

Debka says: Pakistan intelligence doubts Zawahiri was present at purported US strike site, cannot confirm he was killed because locals removed 5 foreigners’ bodies

Actually this makes more sense. How could we have gotten there so soon to remove 5 bodies?

If this is indeed true, then the locals are covering up.

We got some AQ guys--we just don't know who. What are the chances of this getting sorted out?

Syl said...

Peter

LOL!

BTW, I was just at al-jazeera. Their article pulls together info from various news agencies.

I gotta tell you, it was put together well and most everything is in there.

Syl said...

Oops. The al-jazeera linky

buddy larsen said...

"Coordinates", hereabouts referred to as "corn-nuts".

"Wutter th' target corn nuts, sojer?"

Syl said...

Yes, Peter! Give co-ordinates. That's perfect.

Why bother to use our airliners against us. Just walk into a crowded mall and give the CIA your coordinates!

LOL

Well, the locals are covering up this one. There'll be some money changing hands methinks. I'm not sure if their hospitality extends to dead bodies.

Syl said...

me again

Pakistan Condemns Deadly Air Strike

Well, duh.

They have to.

Off to la-la land. Storms last night weren't bad right over me, but tornado warnings one county over and another two counties north. 50-foot trees toppled just southeast of here.

The buggers were chugging along at 55 mph so they didn't hang around very long.

buddy larsen said...

33 straight days of rain in Seattle?

buddy larsen said...

"Bush really needs a victory in the WOT so maybe that explains the stepped up campaign."

I agree, I suspect that there are certain forces inside the USA--the so-called "conservatives" and "moderates"--that are interested in achieving victory in the GWoT.

buddy larsen said...

yeah, Mark--my truck won't keep the milk cold, and my refrigerator is absolute crap on the highway.

buddy larsen said...

You guys have had forty years of free rein with the war on poverty and the national educational system, and the consensus is, everybody on the planet would be far better off if you had just gone fishin'.

buddy larsen said...

"Do you like Democrats?"

"why, yes I do."

"Great, have another bowlful!"

buddy larsen said...

(*Whew*) Thanks, Mark--for awhile there, I thought the NYTimes was against winning the GWoT.

buddy larsen said...

"You can quit using the flag as a crying towel"

(translation)

"Nobody I know has been killed by terrorism"

buddy larsen said...

I don't remember getting in the least bit upset over anything in Midland. So, is it okay if I don't check my underwear, or pee on myself?

DID almost peed on myself laffing when I heard that Sen. Ted read a satire piece to Judge Alito--on national tv--and tried to make the world believe it was serious journalism (or that he was a serious senator).

buddy larsen said...

Try drumming your fingers, Mark--it makes the time go by faster.

buddy larsen said...

You actually DID have a point, back there aways, and could've made it if you hadn't gotten off into genitalia: The Madrid bombers used the disposable cell-phones, long before NYTimes started the latest hoot n' holler.

buddy larsen said...

One pertinent inconsistency is your bragging about international terror using the technique in Iraq, where, according to you, there IS no 'international terror'.

buddy larsen said...

Godot idea, Peter!

Luther said...

The chickenhawk aspersion is such a crock. Not worth debating. But to the extent Marky feels it valid, I want several more votes next time I'm at the polls. After all Marky, I did serve, and based on your interpretation my voice and vote should carry "extra" weight. Though from your writings I can see that if I had served with you I may not have been here to write these words, watching the six and all that. But of course that would be, if you had served. Did you perchance? Matter of fact Marky, what exactly, of a positive manner, have you done for your country?

Syl said...

mark

I've come to the conclusion that someone as cynical as yourself has simply given up. Life's too complicated to comprehend so make shit up and believe it. Easier that way.

Bush really needs a victory in the WOT so maybe that explains the stepped up campaign.

but later...

When your side gets serious about fighting Al Qaeda instead of...

Make up your mind.

Your statements have nothing to do with reality, they are only opinions about motives attributed to someone else. That way you don't have to face the contradictions you believe because you push those contradictions off on Bush instead.

In other words, you don't make sense.

As to official Pakistan, your cynicism is selective:

They [the Pakistanis] need these guys alive to keep the aid flowing.

Yet you take at face value Pakistani criticism of the US strike and point your cynicism towards Bush claiming he uses strikes such as these as political manipulation of the American people.

Is there no possibility in your mind that Pakistan uses criticism of US strikes as political manipulation of its own people?

Americans: We have to kill all al Qaeda in the Territories and your desired fighter plane acquisitions depend on our ability to do so.

Pakistanis: no American boots on our soil but missiles are okay. However we will never admit we said okay and condemn every missile strike.

Americans: deal!

Syl said...

mark

Where's your cynicism when you need it?

Vanderland said Thursday after the ABC report aired that assertions of a connection between a terror cell and the men who attempted to purchase cell phones from a Midland Wal-Mart were invalid.

Isn't it possible that an FBI guy furious at the NSA leak, leaked about a terror cell under surveillance thus tipping off the cell that they are known. I'd call that irony.

Denying the report would be the natural thing to do.

That's just as much a possibility as some guy making up a connection to a cell in a specific area from whole cloth.

If we've learned anything the past few years, it's that leaks occur with some frequency.

Your cynicism is transparently aimed in only one direction.

Luther said...

Well Peter, the color of the elephant is the reason why, the stripe across, the line they never crossed, and the stars above, the utopia which they will never meet. The whole premise is bulls**t.

Keep us honest Syl!

All aided by a new Merlot I have discovered, Quail Oak from California. Inexpensive but quite pleasant.

Luther said...

This is Saturday night, is it not?

buddy larsen said...

"...Quail Oak from California. Inexpensive but quite pleasant."

I believe you meant "quite pheasant"?

buddy larsen said...

yep, drive-by cynicism is such a beautiful thing to behold, every dadburn thing thing mankind does is simply to increase his own power--Jesus, guilt-tripper; Mother Theresa, camera hog; Lincoln, had to be the center of attention; Audie Murphy, had his eye on that movie career; your mamma and poppa, wanted a baby to boss around.

It's like wiping your butt with a wagon wheel, there's no end to it.

Luther said...

Yes Buddy, some folks can see no good in anything. Perhaps because they have never experienced anyone who was good. Don't like writing that, but sadly, I think it may be true on occasion.

And, yes, now that you mention it, that pheasant was rather quite as I shoved it in the oven.

Syl said...

That five bodies has morphed to seven. We have no idea who grabbed them nor where they are. It's been established that furriners were indeed in the area.

We just don't know who.

The 18 were all locals. It's the disappeared bodies who were not.

Zawahiri had himself a new wife and kids in the area too. Some kind of deal with the tribal elders for her. Now it's all in the family.

The fury in the reaction to the strike shows me that somebody got whacked they didn't want to get whacked.

The insitigator of the protests and violence is one of the two local religious leaders who are most sympathetic to al Qaeda. In fact we (the Pakistani's) had captured one of them leaving his house just a few weeks ago.

These two religious leaders were the ones who had invited Zawahiri to the Eid dinner. These two religious leaders left the house at 12:30 am and the strike didn't happen until 3 am.

What we don't know is if Zawahiri left the house with them or remained or if he was there at all.

The most interesting article I've read hints that there were special forces in the area (an absolute no-no to the Pakistanis) that pointed the planes (not predators) to the specific houses, then may have quickly grabbed bodies (or not).

But, as I said, the fury of the reaction against the strike indicates to me something more than 18 locals being killed.

Al Qaeda says Zawahiri is still alive. How do they know? Have they contacted him by satellite phone? They don't know any more than we do at this point.

Syl said...

mark

Your rant re Khan and Pakistan is another illustration of your inconsistency. Whack Pakistan, not Iran.

It's just like whack Afghanistan, not Iraq.

Kneejerk 'NO' to anything we do.

But you miss the elephant in the room. If it were not for Iraq we may not have known about Khan until it was way too late.

Syl said...

would not al Qaeda claim civilian casualties as part of the propaganda war?

Most definitely.

And as more of the propaganda war, the federal interior minister is claiming (interview with Debkafile) that this was a decoy operation. False information given by al Qaeda to the Americans.

Whose propaganda though? Blame al Qaeda for the false information or blame the Americans for acting on it? Or see how smart al Qaeda was for fooling the Americans?--getting locals killed in the process. It's all just talk.

But those missing bodies...sheesh.

It had to be locals doing it. Dragging obvious foreigners out of there and burying them immediately.

If (HUGE if) SF were there, they wouldn't have time to run into the three houses, get samples from the bodies they had to dig through the rubble to find, put 'em in jars, and hightail it out of there before the locals who came running after they heard the blasts could spot them.

The Pakistanis have to sort this out. Were there actually more bodies than the 18 or 19 claimed? And are they furriners or locals?

Unless Zawahiri was really whacked, I doubt we'll ever know.