Exit Polls

Tuesday, November 07, 2006
I wanted to get another prediction in, if only for honesty's sake.

The exit polls are looking fairly bad for the (R) side right now, however, unless the exit pollers have considerably improved their methodology the exit polls will still have about a 5 percent systematic error to the (D) side.

If so, here's what the numbers look like (using numbers from The Corner):

Democrats leading:

Virginia (52-47) prediction very close*
Rhode Island (53-46) prediction (R) (!!)
Pennsylvania (57-42) prediction (D)
Ohio (57-43) prediction (D)
New Jersey (52-45) prediction very close (!!)
Montana (53-46) prediction (R)
Missouri (50-48) prediction (R)
Maryland (53-46) prediction very close ---

but I think it will be a clear (R); remember this is all based on someone's model of the overall election. If the African-Americans go just a little bit more (R), this might turn.

Republicans leading:

Tennessee (51-48) prediction (R)
Arizona (50-46) prediction (R)

Update: I cleaned up the format a little bit, mainly using a monospaced font to make things line up without having to actually create a table. But I note one thing: I made an arithmetic mistake on Virginia, which I showed as "very close" where it should be a clear (R). Since then I've seen considerably more results, so I hate to change the original, but by the method, that should actually predict Allen by at least a couple poiints.

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