Man Without Qualities

Sunday, November 05, 2006
Man Without Qualities: "... therefore see the race likely sliding towards the GOP in the next three days, even as the mainstream media proclaim that the Democrats are 'taking new territory' and 'opening new fronts.' This race has some dynamics similar to those of the build-up to the 2004 Democratic Convention: The media played Kerry up prior to the Convention, just as the media has saturated the political marketplace with pro-Democratic Iraq negativism this time around. The result in 2004 was that the Democratic Convention itself could produce little or no 'bounce' - in fact, Kerry may have experienced a 'negative bounce' from his own Convention. Similarly, most new information and considerations entering the campaign and voters' thinking in the next 3 days will of probably of necessity favor the GOP because the Iraq issue has done all it can do already.

The first signs of such a GOP slide may already be evident, as in this article from the Washington Post that purports to sound a death knell for the GOP's election prospects, but contains this overlooked pearl:

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had i"