"Still, as I watch Democrats complain about Bush politicizing terrorism, I cannot help but wonder if they are preparing their excuses for the day after the election."I decided to take a look around and came up with this article in the SF Chronicle which makes the demographic case fairly well (but only in part) and this article at the WaPo, which provides more ammo for the "stolen election" meme so dearly loved by those who truly know how to steal elections.
I found another 'meme seed' this morning from CNN. Bushco's big oil allies have conspired to once again push down the price of gas just ahead of the elections! Boy, that's never happened before. The other factor which leads me to believe that a "we would have done much better except for" narrative is being developed is the current dearth of "Democrat wave" stories. Toss in the stories about contention between Emanuel and Dean and you have a nice broth stock to which various items will be added over the next six weeks so that the loser's soup which will be served on November 8th will be yummy and filling.
Returning to the SF Chronicle article - the author makes a decent case for the birth side of the demographic equation but neglects to mention that the primary cause was the Roe v Wade 'victory' so ardently fought for and won by the Democrats themselves. Nor does she mention the death side of the equation, which as fate would have it, also favors the Republicans in this cycle as it has since 2000 and will continue to do until 2012.
I'm not at all sanguine about the possibility of Republican pickups in this election. The opportunities just aren't there due to the efficiency of many state legislatures in bullet proofing districts. I am rather certain that the Republicans will hold the House, both because of the small number of districts which are actually in play and because the Republican logistical machine is humming along very nicely.