Is the Sky Really Falling? A Review of Recent Global Warming Scare Stories

Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Is the Sky Really Falling? A Review of Recent Global Warming Scare Stories: "In the last two years, a remarkable amount of disturbing news has been published concerning global warming, largely concentrating on melting of polar ice, tropical storms and hurricanes, and mass extinctions. The sheer volume of these stories appears to be moving the American political process toward some type of policy restricting emissions of carbon dioxide.

It is highly improbable, in a statistical sense, that new information added to any existing forecast is almost always “bad” or “good”; rather, each new finding has an equal probability of making a forecast worse or better. Consequently, the preponderance of bad news almost certainly means that something is missing, both in the process of science itself and in the reporting of science. This paper examines in detail both recent scientific reports on climate change and the communication of those reports.

Needless to say, the unreported information is usually counter to the bad news. Reports of rapid disintegration of Greenland’s ice ignore the fact that the region was warmer than it is now for several decades in the early 20th century, before humans could have had much influence on climate. Similar stories concerning Antarctica neglect the fact that the net temperature trend in recent decades is negative, or that warming the surrounding ocean can serve"

2 comments:

terrye said...

They call it global change now, that way the theory can cover everything, warming, cooling, floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, blizzards, advancing glaciers, melting glaciers, whatever.

Knucklehead said...

Unfortunately there seems to be no way to get through to the trendy dopes who believe the sky is falling. Fortunately they will, eventually, move on to the next trend whenever that arrives.