Neddy the Unready Meets Reality

Thursday, August 17, 2006
Today's Quinnipiac poll gives Lieberman a 53/41 lead among likely voters. IMO, Quinnipiac is a dogs breakfast of a polling outfit, it was their polling of "breathing over 18's" that induced the clueless Lamont that he was riding the wave of the future. Their emphasis on the strength of Lieberman's support among Republicans in this report is also another example of hiding the ball in a press report, the 58/36 split among independents is much more important. Independents in Connecticut regularly split tickets, that's why the state has a Republican governor and three out of five House seats. If there was a single state to be picked where an independent had a chance to win, Connecticut would be at the top of the list.

The Quinnipiac poll does reinforce other findings showing similar if not quite so stark results. Rasmussen had Lieberman up five a few days ago, with both candidates polling under 50%. It will be interesting to see if Rasmussen's next poll shows the type of increase in Lieberman support that is apparent in the Quinnipiac poll. I would guess not but I would be unsurprised to see the current five point lead double to ten.

This poll will also give Lieberman help in raising money. Neddy better be prepared to part with a lot more of his personal stash and even if he does, it's extremely unlikely that money alone will do the trick. I've been impressed by the sheer stupidity of the Kosola Kidz Krewe to date but their backing of Lamont the Lame needs to be examined in a class by itself. If Lieberman has the backbone to see this through to the end then all three Republican House seats in Connecticut can be moved to the 'safe' column.

14 comments:

David Thomson said...

I calmly predicted that Joseph Lieberman will defeat Ned Lamont by about ten points in the general election. Few people saw this as clearly as myself. They failed to understand that a primary contest usually attracts only the hard core voter. Most people prefer to go to the beach or grill some steaks. Ned Lamont is perceived solely as the antiwar candidate. His supporters could care less about the other issues. This simply is not enough to entice the voting majority.

Will the Lamont debacle help Republican candidates in other parts of the country? How best to exploit the Democratic Party’s reluctance to use violence to defeat the Islamic nihilists?

David Thomson said...

The Daily Kos blog is so far silent concerning these disturbing poll numbers. I wonder if Ned Lamont is returning their phone calls?

CF said...

I hope Lamont makes a lot more off the cuff policy statements before the election.I always find the exposure to the light of day of the thoughts of bien pensants like Lamont and Kerry good for the public weal.

Knucklehead said...

Neddy the Unready seems to believe that pissing and moaning about the effect the Patriot Act is having on the library records of Americans and that all that is required to keep America Safe (tm) from mass murdering Islamofascists is "good old fashioned police work".

That won't play in Peoria and it won't play in CT. He'll be back in his board rooms and country club locker rooms, and out of the hair of the rest of us, in November.

David Thomson said...

There are only so many antiwar people who are foaming at the mouth and red in the face---even in a liberal state like Connecticut. Many Americans are somewhat confused and frustrated, but that’s not the same thing as being willing to give allegiance to another George McGovern. Thus, other issues will inevitably come into play. Who in hell is Ned Lamont? What are his qualifications? Has he even given ten minutes of thought to these other pressing matters? Even a superb campaign manager can do little to hide the glaring weaknesses of their candidate.

By the way, the Daily Kos has still not addressed Ned Lamont’s disastrous poll numbers! He must be in total shock. Once again, it’s becoming obvious that Kos is inadvertently Karl Rove’s best friend.

David Thomson said...

This is one time I wish I were a Las Vegas gambler. Should someone start a betting pool to guess when the Daily Kos is going to mention Ned Lamont’s fading election hopes? Will it be in two hours, late tonight, or sometime next week?

Rick Ballard said...

DT,

As long as Neddy's checks cash he is Kos's best friend.

Wrt "other parts of the country", the guy who gets the most help from this is Burns in MT - his opponent was the other "Kos success" and Burn's campaign manager should be linking Tester to Lamont as we speak. Aside from that, this will have a marginal impact unless there are terror strikes.

This mid-term really isn't any different than any other mid-term.

Glenmore said...

So Lamont trails based on likely voters; he's still in good shape if 20% of his likely voters vote at least twice, which should be no problem.

David Thomson said...

“This mid-term really isn't any different than any other mid-term.”

Amen. This is where Raymond E. Wolfinger’s work comes in handy. He clearly pointed out decades ago what is likely to occur during each election cycle. The evidence conclusively shows that citizens rarely change their voting behavior from one election to the next. Wolfinger is the guy who made me look good in 1994. I accurately, for instance, predicted that the college students wouldn’t vote in large numbers. Heck, Wolfinger had completed the hard date studies some thirty years ago on this very point! Kids don’t really give a damn about politics until they are buying a home and purchasing stocks for their retirement.

David Thomson said...

"hard date"

Opps. Should be "hard data."

Knucklehead said...

DT,

The Yutes "care" about politics in so far as they get to posture and blather around the campus or the bong. But when it comes time to climb out of bed a few minutes early or miss lunch or dinner to go vote, well...

terrye said...

Everybody says the Republicans are going to lose big in November. Maybe they will. But I am not so sure about that. The Democrats need to offer a viable alternative and so far all they do is bitch and threaten and promise investigations. moan. Who wants two years of that crap?

People are just tired of the war and high gas prices. That does not mean they want to run away. It means they want some good news and they are disappointed that Bush hasn't given them enough of it.

In fact I think the war in Israel was making people nervous. War is all they see and hear about. Or so they think.

Peter UK said...

Sadly for Neddy the Unready,the old saying still holds,"You just can't polish a turd".

Peter UK said...

Terrye
"Everybody says the Republicans are going to lose big in November. Maybe they will. But I am not so sure about that. The Democrats need to offer a viable alternative and so far all they do is bitch and threaten and promise investigations. moan. Who wants two years of that crap?"

..and not one thing will have changed in the world,except Iran will be nearer to having the bomb