Israel (StrategyPage)

Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Israel: "The Israeli strategy appears to be to allow the UN deal to self-destruct. If the UN peacekeepers can disarm Hizbollah, fine. If not, Israeli ground troops will come back in and clear everyone out of southern Lebanon. At that point, it will be obvious that no one else is willing, or able, to deal with the outlaw 'state-within-a-state' that Hizbollah represents. Hizbollah will still exist after being thrown out of southern Lebanon, and it will be up to the majority of Lebanese, and the rest of the Arab world, to deal with Hizbollah and radical Shias.
"

8 comments:

Skookumchuk said...

Well, it's a nice thought. Israel of course will first have to pay a price in blood just to be allowed back in to finish the job. We shall see.

chuck said...

skook,

It could be that the Israelis could also use a breather. Olmert and his wife have now been called to court to account for the outrageously low price they paid for their home. No doubt planes need to be fitted to carry bunker busters. Netanyahu can be blamed for the lack of military equipment. So on and so forth. No doubt it is best not to lose the momentum of an ongoing offensive, but Israel is a bit of a mess and can use the time to get it together. And who knows, the ceasefire might actually work well enough that war is not needed. I wouldn't wager my home on the outcome, but it is a possibility.

Peter UK said...

I think Israel stopped because Hezbollah was more heavily armed than was thought,the Russian Kornet multipurpose missile more deadly than expected.
Hezbollah was fighting the Chechen way,popping up from theur boltholes and bunkers with these small but deadly weapons.

Rick Ballard said...

This conclusion might be valid if the UN follow on resolutions have teeth....

I might fly tomorrow if I grow wings during the night (and some additional muscles to power them).

Lebanon was (and is) in violation of 1559 and will be in violation of 1701 as soon as the pretense of its existence is established. Rather than having to dodge 2,000 UN placeholders (should they feel the need to return), Israel will be having to dodge 2,000 plus whatever additional deadbeats show up.

What Israel takes away from this is the knowledge that its current civilian leadership is incompetent and that the IDF needs a bit of work at the reserve level. The regulars did well and the IAF seemed to be able to hit what the civilians allowed them to bomb. Even the reserve call up was OK given that the civilians seemed to have said readysetgo in one breath.

Hezbollah now has some more building projects to fund and oversee and Iran has to replace the longer range missiles and a few hundred Kornets. Big deal.

I do agree that the Sunni are the bigger losers in this - but that is not going to help us in Iraq at all.

Syl said...

Israel is not going in to finish the job. Not for a while and not unless there is provocation by Hizbollah.

Hizbollah will hold to the ceasefire because they cannot afford not to at this point. This is hudna and they need the time and space to requip.

However we do have a weakened Hezbollah at this point. And Iran knows it.

This war should have, could have, been more decisive but I think it is enough for now.

Iran has lost its deterrent for a while and the while may be long enough for Bush's purposes vis-a-vis Iran.

I don't much care if this war was pre-planned by Bush/Israel or if it was simply an opportunity seized on by Bush to allow Israel to do damage to Hizbollah. But Iran knows its position is weaker right now.

Iran knows exactly how much damage has been done to Hizbollah in the short term.

So Iran declares victory to save face, then resumes negotiations over its nuclear ambitions. As a magnanimous gesture, of course, to also save face.

Planted leaks to Hersh about Bush's plan to attack Iran are taken most seriously because Iran thinks Bush is enough of an American Cowboy to attempt it.

And America has a long history of 'interference' in Iran which is part of the Iranian psyche.

However, the known unknown is just how close or far Iran actually is from building/obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The jaw-jaw could simply buy them the time they need.

But at this point, Iran believes it must jaw-jaw or face attack.

Whereas a month ago Iran refused any more jaw-jaw.

Rick Ballard said...

Syl,

Another scenario could be that the raid on Baalbek gave them info on launch sites in the Bekaa for Ahmanutter's August Surprise - which were then taken out by air strikes and commando raids that the Israelis haven't gotten around to mentioning. The problem with that is that Olmert wouldn't be letting his name get dragged around if it were true.

terrye said...

Rick:

The conclusion is valid even if the Resolution does not have teeth. That is the whole point. We forget that we are only talking about 7 miles here. it is not as if Israel has to go to the front, the front is Israel.

Knucklehead said...

I just can't see how Israel's postition is strenghtened.

When this started they faced a self-described Army of God who wanted to kill as many Jews as possible. To that end they infested and co-opted the civilian population and terrain under the noses of several hundred UNIFIL "peacekeepers" (a collection of various degrees of no-ops, sympathizers, and abettors) who did nothing to keep the peace in any identifiable way, shape, or form.

Once the battle was engaged the self-described Army of God was given a free pass, by the World Community to kill as many Jews as they possibly could while Israel was vilified for every "Lebanese" or "peacekeeper" corpse real or conjured (with some significant effort expended by the World Community to assist with the conjuring).

But at least Israel didn't have thousands of UN "peacekeepers" milling around the target zone. At least it didn't have thousands of impotent Lebanese Army personnel milling around the target zones. And at least some portion of the Innocent Civilians had flown the coop.

Should Israel need to restart the effort to engage the Army of God in open warfare in the near future they will face a much larger problem than they faced a few short weeks ago.

The UN "peacekeepers" will not keep the peace, they will not disarm the Army of God and they will not protect Israel. They are, at best, just more obstacles that Israel will have to overcome (and be condemned for overcoming). At worst, although very unlikely, they will actively fight against the IDF.

I don't know if the situation is bad enough to say that Israel just put their head in the noose but I do believe they just put their hands behind their back and allowed the cuffs to be clicked shut.

That's the way this knucklehead sees it. Fortunately nobody pays me to figure out the world situation and the reason for that is that I don't actually know a damned thing.