Why Israel now?

Sunday, July 23, 2006
Hot Air » Blog Archive » Why Hezbollah attacked when it did: "attacking Israel now may be the shot the mullahs have to take, before Iraq is self-sufficient and before democracy takes root in Lebanon and spreads further. Using Lebanon as a forward base makes sense from a logistics point of view and from a political one. The Lebanese government, an infant democracy, is not yet strong enough to resist Hezbollah (assuming it even wants to) and isn’t fully rid of Syrian influence. Destabilizing it makes sense from both an Iranian and Syrian point of view–as a relatively cosmopolitan if weak democracy, its existence is a threat. Handing it to Hezbollah by inflaming rage against Israel and highlighting the impotence of Lebanon’s democratic government hands Iran a little piece of empire right on Israel’s doorstep, and weakens nascent faith in democracy. And if it succeeds, Israel is weakened and America takes a proxy defeat. Seen this way, Hezbollah’s rocket strikes opened up an Iranian/Syrian counterattack against the US and its broad plans to re-shape the Middle East."

9 comments:

terrye said...

Assuming that either the US or Israel goes with the program. I also wonder how good an idea destroying the hope for democracy is. The next step is to just obliterate the regimes. In other words, democracy is the next to last resort, I am not so sure the folks in the region will like the last resort any better.

chuck said...

I wonder, though, how much this comes down to Nazrullah himself and his own ambitions. I read somewhere, long time ago in internet years, that Nazrullah was beginning to act as if he had religious authority in competition with the traditional Shiite religious centers in Qom and Najaf, Qom being the Iranian version of this religious competition. Occam's razor would say Nazrullah's personal will to power is the primary motivator here, Iran and Syria are just enablers and a means to an end.

Buddy Larsen said...

Puts Iran on Israel's doorstep only if Hez survives.

Peter UK said...

If Nasrallah has instigated this without a go-ahead from Tehran,he is unlikely survive very long,probably better not to accept gifts of cellphones.

David Thomson said...

Hezbollah’s Jew hating thugs are not “rational.” They existentially crave death and destruction. Life was getting boring. There hadn’t been any real action for awhile and they were getting bored.

We are not talking about Westerners---but Muslim extremists. They are members of an anti-intellectual and anti-life culture.

Peter UK said...

It would seem that whilst Hezbolah's ideology may be irrational,their actions are quite rational within the confines of that ideology.
We are going to have to redefine our terms.

Peter UK said...

From the link,
"According to Naim Kassem, Hezbollah’s number two, the party has an annual budget of £279m, much of which comes from businesses set up by the movement. These include a bank, a mortgage co-operative, an insurance company, a travel agency specialising in pilgrimages to Muslim holy places, several hotels, a chain of supermarkets and a number of urban bus and taxi companies."

These would seem to be legitimate targets.

JB said...

Along the same lines, Steyn's latest...

Buddy Larsen said...

...mercy--that Steyn essay is a punch in the breadbasket.