Breaking News -- Hizb'allah withdraws from cease-fire

Sunday, August 13, 2006
According to Fox News, Nabi Berri has just called off (or caused to be called off) the Lebanese Cabinet meeting in which they were to discuss the disarmament of Hizb'allah. They refuse to even discuss it.

Since this is one of the terms of the cease-fire, that pretty much means the bluff has been called.

Update 0941: An Israeli source told Fox News that "cease offensive operations" means "stop trying to go further north."
Predictions:
  • expect it to take a long time to get UNIFIL reinforced.
  • don't expect fighting to stop, or even slow down much.
  • expect Bush to get the blame.


Update 1048: From Captain's Quarters:
Does anyone not believe that this crisis has been precipitated by Hezbollah's refusal to leave southern Lebanon and disarm? The cease-fire proposal put the onus on them to cease their attacks on Israel and to dismantle their military wing. I warned earlier that such a requirement would eliminate the need for Hezbollah at all; their entire raison d'etre for the Lebanese people has been as a shield against the Israelis. If the Lebanese Army took that function away from them, they just become another terrorist militia, a construct of which the Lebanese have rightly tired.

Nasrallah knew this. He signaled his approval yesterday of the cease-fire but objected to the arms embargo and the disarming of his organization. Perhaps he thought the Israelis would reject it, but when the Israeli Cabinet adopted it unanimously, it looks like Nasrallah had his bluff called.

Unless Siniora gets this resolution adopted in the next couple of hours, Israel will push past the Litani into Bekaa -- and this time they will have the tacit endorsement of the UN Security Council.


Update 1114: Just was reminded of this quote:
"Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."
— Abba Eban

8 comments:

Rick Ballard said...

Now that's good news. It appears that Iran has decided to fight to the last hezzie. I hope that the IDF will be very methodical in their continuing operation and wish them complete success.

Peter UK said...

Another IDF Spokesman stood at Michael’s side. I was surprised to see this guy. His name is Dan Gordon and he’s a famous Hollywood screenwriter who volunteered for this job. Credits to his name include The Hurricane with Denzel Washington and 1994’s Wyatt Earp.

Dan walked me to another lookout point just at the top of another ridge looking down into Lebanon. A village with apparently intact buildings was just below. We had no cover. The windows of the buildings looked threatening. I remembered last time I stood on this border, back when the IDF soldiers told me everything could explode at any moment, and I was warned that it was possible I was being watched through a sniper scope.

“Have you had any sniper attacks since this started up?” I asked Dan.

“Yes, actually we have,” he said. “This is probably not a good place for us to be standing.” Then we stepped away.

Funny that I was more aware of the danger than he was. That, I suppose, is an advantage of being unused to war zones. My discomfort kept me from falsely feeling like I was invincible.

“Hardly any journalists have mentioned this,” Dan said. “But at the very beginning of this thing, when Hezbollah captured our soldiers, they also tried to invade, conquer, and hold the town of Metulla along with two other towns. And they were repulsed.”

Of course Hezbollah was repulsed. They’re a guerilla/terrorist army, not infantry.

“We do have one serious asset from this war,” Dan said. “Hassan Nasrallah got his ass kicked. And he knows it.”

“Did he really get his ass kicked?” I said. “The IDF fought Hezbollah to a standstill for more than ten years before. What made you think it would be easy to get rid of them this time?”

“This time it’s different,” Dan said. “This time we’re going in there to kill them. We are not trying to hold on to territory. This is actually working. We are not stuck in the mud. Oh, and here’s another tangible…Hezbollah-occupied Lebanon no longer exists.”

Michael Totten

Seneca the Younger said...

Found it. There's another couple grafs I like:
“Look at Nasrallah today,” Michael said. “In 2000 he did his victory dance in Bint Jbail. He can’t do that this time. His command and control south of Beirut is completely gone. We killed 550 Hezbollah fighters south of the Litani out of an active force of 1250. Nasrallah claimed South Lebanon would be the graveyard of the IDF. But we only lost one tenth of one percent of our soldiers in South Lebanon. The only thing that went according to his plan was their ability to keep firing rockets. If he has enough victories like this one, he’s dead.”

“Have Hezbollah’s fighting techniques evolved or degraded since 2000?” I said.

“They’re the same,” he said. “They’re good. These guys are very experienced. They have been fighting for a long time. But we’ve killed more than 25 percent of their fighting force. I think they’ll break. All armies break. Killing even one percent of a Western army is a disaster. It’s prohibitive.”

terrye said...

Bush will get blamed if the cease fire goes on or if it does not. It seems to me with friends like his base he really does not need any enemies.


I wonder if it occured to any of these people to just shut up for a few days and let things happen before they pass judgment and point fingers etc.

As you can tell I am getting really tired of the pundits. Needless to say they hate the resolution, they hate the UN so it goes without saying they would hate any resolution coming out of there anyway.

They send Bolton up there, tell him to be tough and then stab that knife in his back when he does not accomplish the impossible.

Meanwhile they are doing the same thing the left does. I look at those young IDF men coming back from the front and I think about the politicians and bloggers and pundits acting as if the only reason they are out there is to promote some policy near and dear to some politico's heart and it occurs to me that the Left are not the only people who can use the politics of war to their advantage.

Peter UK said...

Terrye,
Politics isn't about us,it is about them,to most politicians everything is grist to the mill of their ambitions.We face the most dangerous period in our history since the Cuban Missile Crisis,all these shits can think of is thei own self agrandisement.

MeaninglessHotAir said...

expect Bush to get the blame

Hey, even I can do that:
1. Sun set to rise in East tomorrow.
2. Death to occur.
3. Taxes to be collected this year.

terrye said...

peter:

Yes this is the way it is. It is the politician gene I think. they can not help themselves.

JB said...

Wow. Maybe I'm speaking too early, but it looked for a second that Bush, Rice, Bolton and Olmert got played.

Shoulda had more faith.

If this is what it looks like, long-term prognosis is excellent.