Shifting Sands - New Jersey Senate Race

Monday, March 20, 2006
Quinnipiac has a new poll out today that places Tom Kean in a very good position for this early in the campaign. Although Menendez holds a large lead in cash on hand he has spent a considerable amount to date with little to show for it. Kean is nursing a much smaller campaign fund and has managed to garner a lead with independents while spending one-sixth of what Menendez has spent.

This is a decently weighted poll of registered voters which gives a very good idea of the actual state of play at the moment. New Jersey is an extraordinarily expensive state because media buys must be made both in the NYC market and in the Philly market. That's why it cost Corzine $60 mil to purchase the seat that he then abandoned when he realized that he was never going to be in the majority party.

Does Kean have a real chance of unseating the appointed incumbent? That actually depends upon the pace of the continuing suburbanization of New Jersey, the amount of money that he can raise and the Dems faltering ability to raise the dead on election day - in that order. New Jersey splits 52/46 so Kean needs to move 4% from the D to the R column. A nice political scandal this summer (of which there is never a shortage in New Jersey) plus the probable fall out from the NSA leak investigation may do the trick. Voters in New Jersey are a bit more sensitive to the terrorist threat than voters in Wisconsin.

This race, Maryland and the open seat race in Minnesota are the most interesting contests at this point.

UPDATE: Last month's Fec reports showed Dean's magnificent fundraising for the DNC having resulted in a net $6.9 million Cash On Hand for the year to date. This month Mehlman managed to increase the RNC's COH by only $6.9 million to $40.8 million.

The DNC hasn't filed this months report as yet. I wonder why?

2nd UPDATE:

DNC report is now available:




DNC YTD Receipts - $11,297,501
RNC YTD Receipts - $24,796,621

DNC COH - $8,930,179
RNC COH - $40,874,828

In fairness to Dean it must be said that his fundraising is not doing as badly as his candidate recruitment.

5 comments:

Jamie Irons said...

TONY SOPRANO HAS BEEN SHOT!

Rick,

The effect on New Jersey politics of an extended coma (or even death) on the Skipper's part cannot be foreseen with any certainty, but surely it has to be factored in.

More seriously, it is fascinating to me how a state so riddled with corruption can function at all. And people have their doubts about Iraq, which does not (to me) seem much worse. (No IEDs in Jersey yet, thank G_d!)

Jamie Irons

Knucklehead said...

Jamie,

In general the citizens of NJ are much like those of Chicago. You wanna stay elected you juss needa pick up da trash, plow da roads when it snows, patch da potholes, an' keep da teeves outta da neihbahoods.

Syl said...

Hey-I resemble that remark! er accent.

I lived in Joisey for a few years (E. Brunswick, not Hoboken or Newark or Patterson or whatever). I was driving down Route 18 one day and the entire place seemed soooo strange to me. What the hell am I doing here? So I left. :)

Well, there was a bit between the decision and the actual move, but that revelation got me started.

Though, man, I get hit with flashbacks so real I have to blink. Some damn fine memories of my time there.

terrye said...

New Jersey is to the north what Lousiana is to the south.

That pic is mean.

Rick Ballard said...

He's a cruel man, Terrye.