Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Some fun with numbers

Since Alfred E. Einstone just announced that he has developed two key technologies which will solve the United States' illegal immigration problem without fuss or bother in a mere 72 hours (what, you didn't see the announcement - don't you get Yahoo headlines?), I thought it might be fun to play with some numbers.

But first it is only fair to mention the incredible inventions Dr. Einstone just announced.

The first is an incredible new fence building technology. Dr. Einstone's fence invention can build an impervious fence along the entire US border with Mexico in 72 hours using material sucked up from the ground on site - sand, trash, cactus, weeds, whatever. It cannot be climbed, cut through, or dug under. And it costs only $1M/mile. Congress expects to approve the funds by tonight, and the fence can be in place, complete, not later than midnight on Sunday.

The second invention is even more miraculous. Dr. Einstone invented an 100% infallible illegal immigrant detector and transporter. From a central location such as Hays, KS Dr. Einstone's machine can detect and transport (up to 12,000 miles!) as many as four million illegal immigrants per 24 hours at a cost of a mere $100 per illegal immigrant. The most obvious destination for transport is Mexico City. Congress expects to approve the funds by tonight and Dr. Einstone guaranteed that he could have as many as 12 million illegal immigrants detected and transported to Mexico City, complete and unharmed, by not later than midnight on Sunday.

Oh Happy Days! For a piddling $13.4B (1.4 for the fence, 12 for the detection and transport), the US can be free of this crushing problem forever. Gone and back where they belong. Alfred E. Einstone '08!

OK, back to fun with numbers. Using this USA Today article and grokking around for a few state populations, here's what we're looking at for our fresh start on Monday morning:

- 6.5% of the people in California gone. 36.8M people, 2.4M illegals
- 4.6% of the people in North Carolina gone. 8.45M people, 0.39M illegals

- 29 percent of agricultural workers and 29 percent of roofers

You want your cotton picked, your fruit basketted, or Katrina ravaged roof repaired, oh well, it'll have to wait.

There are some other numbers I have no idea how to have fun with. Like, what happens to the CA rental housing market when 2.4 million people disappear? It'll put a dent in the affordable housing problem, that's fersure.

I figure we'll have the abandoned cars towed away as soon as we find some tow truck drivers. I hope not too many folks actually needed those appliances they figured were being delivered next week. No doubt unemployed CA school teachers will make fine Gulf Coast roofers and Simi grape pickers. And heck, what with all the suddenly available rental properties going for a song it's not big deal if a few tens of thousands of folks have to wait another few months or so for their new homes to get framed out.

17 comments:

Unknown said...

It seems there is a lot more heat than light surrounding this issue. There is fear mongering, there is posturing, there is preening, there is hysteria, there is election year campaining....but there are not enough realistic solutions. I thank Dr. Einstone for coming up with an answer to our problem. Our microwave society can not stand long term solutions.

Just the other day I looked in on polipundit and the natives were restless. One guy said he wished we had a real conservative in the White House like Reagan, who would fix this. Well, I am not trashing Ronald Reagan here, but if I remember correctly back in the 80's he signed an immigration reform act that actually did include blanket amnesty. How soon they forget.

When I quit smoking I began to spend more time on the computer, to distract myself...that meant more time on my ass. Next thing you know I had gained over 20 pounds. I was shocked, disgusted, amazed and outraged. How could this have happened? Where did my big ass come from? Not from my eating habits, surely.

People are reacting to this issue much the same way. It took years to get where we are, it might take years to bring about real reform, and we let it happen.

But until Scotty finds a way to beam those folks over the border and then put up a force shield to keep them there...I am afraid we have to depend on a more sedate and far less exciting course of action.

Rick Ballard said...

I finally found the actual statute regarding illegal entry. It's a Class B misdemeanor (based upon the six month maximum sentence, so the maximum fine would be $5,000.

I also took a look at the immigration legislation now before our most august Congressional Clown Corps. The amount of bafflegab used in the bill suggests a high degree of artistry being employed in the tatting surrounding the loopholes being enacted.

It does take a real buffoon to do a buffoon's job - good to see we're not lacking for them in the Senate.

Unknown said...

Rick:

I wonder if they will just put all the plans together and try to come up with a consensus.

Back when my people came here, you just got off the boat, and voila! you were ok fine. No real rules or anything, not by today's standards.

Anonymous said...

terrye:

Back when my people came here, you just got off the boat, and voila! you were ok fine.

It is interesting for me to compare the experiences of my Scots-Irish paternal side of the family, which split with half going to Canada and half to the US, with my maternal Hispanic side, who also came to the US. Everybody who ended up here (all from about 1900 to about 1960) is thoroughly American and homogenized on both sides.

On the other hand, the folks on my Dad's side living in a tiny farming community on the Canadian Prairie have Irish accents that make them sound right off the boat.

Rick Ballard said...

I doubt they will come to a consensus but they will definitely come to a compromise - another series of loopholes with ten thousand words nicely arranged around each one. Everyone will point to one or two sentences purporting to "deal with the problem" and nothing at all will change.

America goes through nativist surges every now and again and sometimes immigration slows for a bit. Skook's comment on the other thread is on the mark - until the schools give up the mosaic and return to the melting pot most Americans aren't going to be happy at all about immigration - legal or not.

Anonymous said...

The nice thing about being a Scots-Irish Hispanic is that you are sort of expected to be in a perpetual stew. And it's OK.

Charlie Martin said...

Skook, I'd worry about the corned beef burritos, though.

Anonymous said...

Seneca:

A corned beef burrito, if done right, might have promise. Having grown up in LA when it was a true melting pot instead of a PC-driven Balkans On The Pacific (from which I escaped after college), I remember a little shack on, I think, La Brea: Home of the Teriyaki Taco. They were delicious.

Unknown said...

Hell I am such a mutt. I have ancestors who walked the Trail of Tears, were in the Revolutionary War, the war of 1812, the Civil War, the 89er Runs in Oklahoma and of course WW2 and Viet Nam and Korea. The ones who were not already here were from England, Ireland and Germany.

But you know how it is if you go back far enough you are related to everyone it seems.

I think they might do a better job of closing the borders, and if they can make money off these people they might make them pay fines. I would not be surprised to see some kind of ID to track them too.

Malkin has found a pic with an upside down American flag and of course she is whipping up the base into a frenzy.I have seen far worse on the IU campus from natives.

Maybe it is just me, maybe I spend too much time doing this kind of thing, but she is really starting to get on my nerves.

I would hate to see the Democrats win the White House with this war on... but I really think that some people on the right are making that more likely not less with all this incessant bitching and moaning and pissing around about every freaking thing.

end of rant. maybe.

flenser said...

Why, suh, it is an outrage to even consider outlawing slavery! Who will then pick our tobacco and cotton? Our entire economy will be destroyed!!

The fact that many of our fellow Americans are hooked on their supply of cheap, obediant, docile labor like a junkie on smack does not make it it a good idea.

As with slavery, the bill can be paid now, or paid down the road with steep interest.

The problem is not going to magically become more tractable when the illegal's make up twenty percent of the population.

Unknown said...

I still do not know what it is that some people want...are we supposed to shoot all these Mexicans? Lay land mines at the border? I hear a lot of screaming but as a general rule the ones making the most noise do not bother to join the debate in any meaningful way. They just insult people and bitch a lot.

And they assume that anyone who does not mindlessly go along with the current screach fest is for open borders and illegal immigration. I know I am not, but I don't expect Scotty to beam these folks over to Mexico city and put up a force shield to keep them there either.

How about a rational solution that takes into account what is and is not possible? What about the kids who were born here? What do we do with them? What about the jobs, who will do them? Just rational answers to rational questions.

Too much to ask I guess.

cf said...

Almost all my household cleaning,gardening,maintenance and repair work in D.C.is now done by immigrants but they are legal and run their own businesses. (Well, my arborist,the irrigation guy and and pool guy are native born)

In part, it is because vocational training is verbotin. We spend tens of thousands of dollars per child pretending they are college material only to have them drop out, flunk out, or graduate with no skills and not a good enough foundation to attend college.(My pool guy , a wonderful man,helps train young Black kids in his neighborhood to do the work. No one else bothers.)

Unknown said...

cf:

If people want work, they should learn to be plumbers. The world will always need plumbers.

Rick Ballard said...

Knuck,

If you want to have fun with some numbers, try the INS Yearbook. We are currently tossing out illegals at the rate of 1.2M annually versus 1.45 through the '90's. The INS best guess on the number of illegals in 2000 was 7M of which about 5.5M had arrived in the '90's and not been caught. If the the entrant and catch ratio remained the same from '01 through '05 then the current illegal population is under 10M rather than over 12M.

MeaninglessHotAir said...

thibaud,

What jumps out at me from your figures is that in every racial/ethnic group the performance declines markedly with age.

By grade 11, 42% of the Chinese kids are failing to be proficient?!. A school system anywhere in the world that causes 42% of the Chinese kids to fail is by definition a disaster.

Unknown said...

MHA:

Maybe that is why bush wanted the NCLB act to be used in high schools too. Considering the size of the schools out there it is not so surprising. Lots of gangs, lots of kids, lots of violence, who has time for education?

Rick Ballard said...

Thibaud,

Go back to the Star site select Santa Cruz County and Scotts Valley Unified - 80% white with good scores.

Here is the census data.

I don't know if you're familiar with the town but it's a pretty nice place. Half an hour from San Jose/Santa Clara (depending upon traffic) and a little less from the beach at Santa Cruz.