50/50 In Iraq

Sunday, April 02, 2006
From Iraq the Model :

Today we witnessed the first public call from inside the UIA for Jafari to step down. Qassim Dawood from the independent bloc inside the UIA that has some 20 members urged Mr. Jafari to withdraw his nomination saying that "many f us in the UIA see that we must choose a prime minister for the country and not a prime minister for the UIA…". This call (which I expect will be followed by similar ones in the near future) shows a growing awareness among some politicians of the critical situation and dangers imposed by the hardliners.

The chances to see a solution are fluctuating up and down reflecting the daily map of events and the intra and inter partisan disputes and right now I see that chances split 50-50 between solution and a confrontation.

There was another mosque bombing today, more the pity. One good thing? The Pilgrimage went off this year without the usual mayhem.

Read all of the above mentioned post and pay attention to his words about fanatics. This is so true. We are not dealing with rational people. I am reading Truman's biography by David McCullough right now and one of the reasons President Truman used the bomb was the fanatical nature of the enemy as evidenced by kamikaze attacks and the refusal to surrender even a single Japanese military unit. Sometimes there is no rational response.

Which way will Iraq go? Toward sanity or barbarism?


David Thomson said...

"Clerics are gathering and charging their followers with hatred to prepare them for a war; hatred towards anything that does not belong to their old school and this may also include provoking these followers against moderate politicians who will be denounced as cowards and betrayers of the faith."

This the central test for Iraq. Can it marginalize its Islamic nihilists? Will there be a united Iraq or merely a few large areas doing fairly well---while the Sunni Triangle goes to hell in a hand basket? My money is on the moderates prevailing. Most Iraqis seem to want to live in peace and improve their economic situation.

terrye said...


Most people just want to live in peace. My udnerstanding is that Sistani belongs to a different school than Sadr or the Iranian mullahs. This does not make him a liberal, but it does mean he will tolerate a more moderate view.

Syl said...

The Iraqis have shown us time and time again that they are willing to go right to the edge and peer over. Then common sense prevails and they pull back.

This is a huge test for them, in fact for the entire Arab/muslim world in general. Iraq The Model, indeed.

I do think most Iraqis do not want to take the Lebanon route but we can only wait and see.

Seneca the Younger said...

Terrye, I meddled with your formatting. Hope you don't mind.

terrye said...


Of course not, I appreciate it in fact.