Very nice job, Charles. It appears that Mann has not been as cooperative as would be hoped in a science setting. Perhaps he has good reason for what others describe as his not being forthcoming with data or answering questions, etc. Considering that the hockey stick has been viewed with such unassailability by the crafters of Kyoto, understanding the statistics behind this temperature analysis is important.
Don't go overboard, David. I know --- and know by transitivity --- some of the hockey team, NCAR is visible from my computer as I type. They're good people. Like all scientists, liberal arts professors, and those posting on this blog, they're people. Mann et al came up with a statistical scheme that they thought made sense at the time, and loked like it answered an exciting question. I've reviewed papers myself that had this same property --- after you get done conditioning your data you're accidentally made your hypothesis an axiom, even though every step sounds perfectly reasonable. Then, once you've published, and people have gotten invested in it, you defend it instead of being an ideal scientist who can drop a hypothesis without a qualm.
I think the underlying lesson is that one should maintain a reasonable skepticism about any science, and no matter how strong a hypothesis seems, still you have to remember that new evidence might come in.
Fresh, they didn't really limit my word count as much as I was trying to make the point and get out. I'm not all that strong in that area (Chuck?) so I didn't want to get too technical. Luckily, the information-theoretic argument I mentioned on my original post is sufficiently foundational that you can get a lot of traction without linear algebra.
7 comments:
Congratulations. I read it and it is very good. Lucianne has it on her site.
Very nice job, Charles. It appears that Mann has not been as cooperative as would be hoped in a science setting. Perhaps he has good reason for what others describe as his not being forthcoming with data or answering questions, etc. Considering that the hockey stick has been viewed with such unassailability by the crafters of Kyoto, understanding the statistics behind this temperature analysis is important.
By golly, she does.
Thanks for the kind words. Stockwell has done some further interesting stuff, see Climate Audit for more.
Don't go overboard, David. I know --- and know by transitivity --- some of the hockey team, NCAR is visible from my computer as I type. They're good people. Like all scientists, liberal arts professors, and those posting on this blog, they're people. Mann et al came up with a statistical scheme that they thought made sense at the time, and loked like it answered an exciting question. I've reviewed papers myself that had this same property --- after you get done conditioning your data you're accidentally made your hypothesis an axiom, even though every step sounds perfectly reasonable. Then, once you've published, and people have gotten invested in it, you defend it instead of being an ideal scientist who can drop a hypothesis without a qualm.
I think the underlying lesson is that one should maintain a reasonable skepticism about any science, and no matter how strong a hypothesis seems, still you have to remember that new evidence might come in.
Fresh, they didn't really limit my word count as much as I was trying to make the point and get out. I'm not all that strong in that area (Chuck?) so I didn't want to get too technical. Luckily, the information-theoretic argument I mentioned on my original post is sufficiently foundational that you can get a lot of traction without linear algebra.
I was more worried about my use of linear algebra. not my strongest area and something I haven't really used since I passed my doctoral comp.
seneca:
You are so smart. I mean that.
Post a Comment