Gentle People

Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Given the rumors that Israel will declare war, given that Israel intends some action against Syria as well as Lebanon, given that Iran has a defense pact with Syria and has flown nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani to Damascus so that an attack on Syria is an attack on Iran, given that Iran is on high alert, that Israel is mobilizing, and the Sunni-Shiite civil war in Iraq is coming to a head...

Tomorrow might be one of those turning points where a simmering conflict breaks into a conflagration. I have no predictions, I hope I am wrong, but frankly, it reminds me of the runup to WWI, only faster. Let us all pray for the best.

12 comments:

Luther McLeod said...

I'm with you Chuck. And Israel. Let's hope our spine is as thick as our skulls and if they need help we give it.

Rick Ballard said...

Israelis are shelling Beirut's airport.

Hopefully they'll get around to the Damascus airport later today.

rich said...

Iran is most likely behind this.

Ahemnijad must think that time is running out and had to do something to change things.

Say a prayer for Israel.

MeaninglessHotAir said...

Well, you see, I have to take the contrarian point of view. This might be a good thing.

I am just about convinced that sometimes it is best to fight a small war now to avoid a big war later. I suspect that war is analogous to forest fire—'tis better to suffer a few necessary small ones than to wait for the inevitable huge one. Tensions with the Muslim world are continuing to build through bombing outrage piled upon bombing outrage. We all know this and we know that we cannot in the long run allow that to continue.

Syl said...

Here's what an idiot (Peter) just posted in the Jay Rosen thread over at JOM:

Look at what the hamfisted Bush admin has done in the middle-east now ... started a civil war in Iraq, instigated a war between Lebanon and Israel, and weakened our position in the world so drastically that Iran and Syria can thumb their noses at us. All at the cost of 400 billion $s, 2550 american lives, 100,000 Iraqi lives and counting. Bang up job boys and I mean boys! Boy-men playing the roles of adults in a world for which they have only contempt.

Conservatives slit their own throats by following Bush/Cheney. The biggest losers are going to be evangelical christians. Our citizens will never forget what this inbred bunch of holligans did in backing this incompetent admin in the hopes of getting a few anti-choice supremes.


Nice, huh?

terrye said...

Syl:

The guy is a moron. What else is there to say? I can remember being a kid and hearing about wars in the ME. This is the latest installment in an ongoing series.

terrye said...

MHA:

Like lancing a boil

Morgan said...

I'm wondering how this will all play out. Lebanon is not the Syrian vassal state it once was, and there are factions within the Lebanese government that would very much like to see Hezbollah weakened (crushed would be better).

Could we be seeing the beginning of the completion of the Cedar revolution? Does Hezbollah end up holding the bag, outlawed as a movement, and actively hunted by Israeli and Lebanese forces?

Will Syria move on Lebanon again? If so, does the US strike Syria? There has been a lot of talk about how the Iraqi security forces have made great strides recently, but the drawdown of US forces hasn't begun. How much slack is there?

Is the anti-government movement within Iran strong enough to constrain Iran to options short of those that would directly provoke the US?

Wish I had answers, but I don't. I do have a sense that there is more than meets the eye going on here. Israel's response was mighty quick and vigorous.

Knucklehead said...

Michael Ledeen is, as always, interesting.

CF said...

http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1291
Most interesting piece up today .

Peter UK said...

Morgan,
Would Syria move against the Lebanon with a large army on its borders with Iraq?

Peter UK said...

Looks like the beginning of Stage Three