Bizzyblog has an interesting article. Gerhardt Schröder, who lost the election narrowly to Andrea Merkel, is acting like he won.
It's a little known fact that "Gerhardt Schröder" is the German for "Al Gore." Link...
Saturday, September 24, 2005
Idle chit-chat
Or Maybe the Mean Line of American Politics
I was out and about running some errands one of which was to procure a long overdue haircut (yes, I got both of them cut, now bite me).
Whilst in the chair chit-chat was started about how the guy who'd owned the place had recently sold out and moved his family to VA. Which prompted chit-chat about living in "other" places. The young women (most are, comparatively speaking) cutting my hair mentioned that she'd lived in NH (too cold) and continued on to mention that at least she'd gotten the opportunity to meet a president. Bush the Elder, during his successful campaign, had spoken at her HS and she'd gotten to listen to him and shake his hand. Her lasting impression, BTW, was how surprised she was by how soft his hand was.
Anyways, she said he seemed like a nice man which prompted the second barber to chime in that most people had liked the first Bush and how it was his son that "nobody likes".
Since I have some rules I live by (stuff like, think twice before you risk pissing off someone who has the opportunity to spit in your food) I figured I'd let that slide on by because, well, the proper time to determine whether somebody might be a BDS sufferer is not the time when they have a hank of cloth wrapped tight around your neck and are poised behind you with a scissor in their hand. Besides, both are good-natured sorts near as I can peg them.
And last, but not least, he didn't leave a gap for me to comment and quickly continued on to deliver his views about the role of a POTUS.
His immediate example was, paraphrasing, that when we got a POTUS from TX we might legitimately have expected fewer Mexicans streaming across the border and lower gasoline prices. More than interesting enough to put me, at least momentarily, further into listen mode.
He then continued on to give an example which, again paraphrasing, was that if he were POTUS, being from "around here", he'd "put a stop" to people driving big cars they don't need. He even went so far as to get specific about how people would need to "apply" to own pickup trucks and cars with V-8s. They'd have to "prove" they "needed" such a vehicle. Oh, and definitely no SUVs under any circumstances.
Well, anyway, me being me and he leaving a brief gap, I siezed upon opportunity to try and make a point while remaining with the limits of good-natured chit-chat. From previous visits to the barber shop I happen to know this guy is a motorcycle nut and owns one of those rip-roaring "ninja" sort of shrieking motorcycles.
So I chimed in that, "If I were president I'd make people apply to own pocket-rocket motorcycles. They'd have to prove why they needed a motorcycle that can do 140MPH. And I'd make it illegal for them to fire that sucker up between 10PM and 6AM."
Unfortunately my point apparently missed the mark because all I got in response was some information about how motorcycles are frugal with gasoline and quite safe to ride at, apparently, any speed - the faster the safer.
Fortunately my hair cut was coming to it's natural conclusion and I was able to exit stage left, paying up and leaving a tip along with instructions to my barberess that it was now in her hands to continue busting our good-natured friend's chops.
I was out and about running some errands one of which was to procure a long overdue haircut (yes, I got both of them cut, now bite me).
Whilst in the chair chit-chat was started about how the guy who'd owned the place had recently sold out and moved his family to VA. Which prompted chit-chat about living in "other" places. The young women (most are, comparatively speaking) cutting my hair mentioned that she'd lived in NH (too cold) and continued on to mention that at least she'd gotten the opportunity to meet a president. Bush the Elder, during his successful campaign, had spoken at her HS and she'd gotten to listen to him and shake his hand. Her lasting impression, BTW, was how surprised she was by how soft his hand was.
Anyways, she said he seemed like a nice man which prompted the second barber to chime in that most people had liked the first Bush and how it was his son that "nobody likes".
Since I have some rules I live by (stuff like, think twice before you risk pissing off someone who has the opportunity to spit in your food) I figured I'd let that slide on by because, well, the proper time to determine whether somebody might be a BDS sufferer is not the time when they have a hank of cloth wrapped tight around your neck and are poised behind you with a scissor in their hand. Besides, both are good-natured sorts near as I can peg them.
And last, but not least, he didn't leave a gap for me to comment and quickly continued on to deliver his views about the role of a POTUS.
His immediate example was, paraphrasing, that when we got a POTUS from TX we might legitimately have expected fewer Mexicans streaming across the border and lower gasoline prices. More than interesting enough to put me, at least momentarily, further into listen mode.
He then continued on to give an example which, again paraphrasing, was that if he were POTUS, being from "around here", he'd "put a stop" to people driving big cars they don't need. He even went so far as to get specific about how people would need to "apply" to own pickup trucks and cars with V-8s. They'd have to "prove" they "needed" such a vehicle. Oh, and definitely no SUVs under any circumstances.
Well, anyway, me being me and he leaving a brief gap, I siezed upon opportunity to try and make a point while remaining with the limits of good-natured chit-chat. From previous visits to the barber shop I happen to know this guy is a motorcycle nut and owns one of those rip-roaring "ninja" sort of shrieking motorcycles.
So I chimed in that, "If I were president I'd make people apply to own pocket-rocket motorcycles. They'd have to prove why they needed a motorcycle that can do 140MPH. And I'd make it illegal for them to fire that sucker up between 10PM and 6AM."
Unfortunately my point apparently missed the mark because all I got in response was some information about how motorcycles are frugal with gasoline and quite safe to ride at, apparently, any speed - the faster the safer.
Fortunately my hair cut was coming to it's natural conclusion and I was able to exit stage left, paying up and leaving a tip along with instructions to my barberess that it was now in her hands to continue busting our good-natured friend's chops.
What gets the axe?
Fiscal conservatives like Glenn Reynolds are all excited at the notion of trimming fat, busting pork, etc from the budget..
What gets cut?
What if I said embryonic stem cell research and cost of living increase for social security or medicaid for that matter?
No doubt there are bridges that lead to no where and pet projects which are out right comical to most of us but these things are not going to cut tens of billions from the budget.
Farm subsidies are an easy call because so few people farm anymore.
Fine, but make it plain to people that they might seem the same volatility in food prices that they have seen in energy.
We forget, we are the government and it is not welfare if it helps us or our families or if we believe in it.
Like say NASA.
I am opting for an across the board cut for the sake of fairness.
What say you?
What gets cut?
What if I said embryonic stem cell research and cost of living increase for social security or medicaid for that matter?
No doubt there are bridges that lead to no where and pet projects which are out right comical to most of us but these things are not going to cut tens of billions from the budget.
Farm subsidies are an easy call because so few people farm anymore.
Fine, but make it plain to people that they might seem the same volatility in food prices that they have seen in energy.
We forget, we are the government and it is not welfare if it helps us or our families or if we believe in it.
Like say NASA.
I am opting for an across the board cut for the sake of fairness.
What say you?
Friday, September 23, 2005
Political sin eater
I remember years ago hearing a folk tale about a sin eater. This poor unfortunate soul was doomed to consume the sins of others so that they might achieve salvation.
After watching the farsical and hysterical hurricane coverage and witnessing the inevitable finger pointing that followed I have come to think of Bush as a political sin eater.
It is his job to assume responsibility not only for the ineptitude of corrupt Louisiana politicians, but the weather itself it seems.
I was raised by people who survived the Dust Bowl. My mother's family lost their farm and went to California to live in the camps and pick fruit. There was no disaster relief or even unemployment insurance and so far as I know FDR was not blamed for the fact that their farm blew away along with the homesteads of tens of thousands of other poor Okies.
People did the best they could.
Of course there were no breathless media spokespeople standing in the midst of that blasted countryside asking indignantly who will pay for this, why are these people suffering?
No... the Okies just loaded up the jalopy and headed west.
But today we need to blame. Perhaps it is partisan politics out of control, or maybe it gives us some comfort to believe that we can avoid bad things if only our president would get it together.
Maybe we are the ones who need to take some responsibility for ourselves and accept the fact that bad things just happen. And maybe the media adds to the fear and the confusion in a sort of modern day witch hunt.
It is Bush's fault. Get rid of him and the bad things go away, gas is cheap, the war is over, the sun shines and all is well.
If you believe that, I have got some swamp ground in east Texas to sell you.
After watching the farsical and hysterical hurricane coverage and witnessing the inevitable finger pointing that followed I have come to think of Bush as a political sin eater.
It is his job to assume responsibility not only for the ineptitude of corrupt Louisiana politicians, but the weather itself it seems.
I was raised by people who survived the Dust Bowl. My mother's family lost their farm and went to California to live in the camps and pick fruit. There was no disaster relief or even unemployment insurance and so far as I know FDR was not blamed for the fact that their farm blew away along with the homesteads of tens of thousands of other poor Okies.
People did the best they could.
Of course there were no breathless media spokespeople standing in the midst of that blasted countryside asking indignantly who will pay for this, why are these people suffering?
No... the Okies just loaded up the jalopy and headed west.
But today we need to blame. Perhaps it is partisan politics out of control, or maybe it gives us some comfort to believe that we can avoid bad things if only our president would get it together.
Maybe we are the ones who need to take some responsibility for ourselves and accept the fact that bad things just happen. And maybe the media adds to the fear and the confusion in a sort of modern day witch hunt.
It is Bush's fault. Get rid of him and the bad things go away, gas is cheap, the war is over, the sun shines and all is well.
If you believe that, I have got some swamp ground in east Texas to sell you.
MSM über Alles?
It looks like the Democrats and their allies in the activist courts may be able to rid themselves of the scourge of the new media before it even gets off the ground. "Amid the explosion of political activity on the Internet, a federal court has instructed the six-member Federal Election Commission to draw up regulations that would extend the nation's campaign finance and spending limits to the Web."
Report from the New Orleans Evacuation
In the light of the current Houston evacuation, which is starting to look, well, ill-considered, I thought it would be good to post a report I got from a friend of mine on how the New Orleans evacuation went for that %80 of the population who obeyed the mandatory evacuation.
We evacuated the city of New Orleans the day before the storm hit. Thousands and thousands of people were trying to evacuate and our pace was averaging around 10 mph. After about 13 hours of driving we made it to our destination: a small town in Mississippi called ___. We got there with only 5 hours to spare before the storm hit. We escaped some of the storm's fury but it was still pretty bad where we stayed. I was so scared. Trees were dropping down all around us and panes on the roof made an awful banging noise. (The roof was made of long metallic panels.) We thought the roof was going to blow off but it did not. I prayed and prayed for safety. Maybe it was a miracle that we escaped serious harm.
Now we have rented a house in ____ for one month. We lost electricity and water in the house where we were staying earlier. The house we are renting has electricity and water. We are doing well under the circumstances. My father the doctor doesn't think he will have patients to see for as long as 6 months. He specializies in allergy and immunology which people don't necessarily have to be treated for. They may put up with the symptoms while they cannot afford to pay a doctor.
New Orleans is a ghost town. My father visited the city yesterday. We cannot move back yet. No stores are open. The police force was nowhere to be seen.
Shifting Sands - 1st Installment
I've written a few comments over at Roger's Place concerning politics and I intend to write a few posts here at YARGB on the same subject. Given the sad state of my own party in the years since Lord Rockingham's demise (and Fox's perfidy), I find it necessary to seek safe harbor with the Republicans pending the renaissance of a true conservative party. While the Republican Party offers only a ghostly simulacrum of conservatism, it does shine brightly in contrast to the dull statism of the opposition. I wouldn't wish to hide any potential bias from an unwary reader.
The question then becomes; "How fares the simulacrum at this point of the interregnum?" and to find an answer I often turn to surveys conducted by the Pew Foundation (yet another liberal trust posing as being "independent"). I do so because they tend to be a bit more honest in presenting the actual data from which their carefully shaded conclusions are drawn. They also provide a bit of humor from time to time as they seek to obfuscate glaringly apparent truths with smoke and mirrors rhetoric that extends even to the titles of the pieces. A fine example of this type of flummery is to be found here. The title of the piece, "GOP Makes Gains Among The Working Class, While Democrats Hold On To The Union Vote" implies an equivalence that does not exist. Union membership applies to about 13% of the gainfully employed population. That's 13%, down from a high of 33% and continuing to fall. Although union members tend to vote at a much higher rate than those who do not belong to unions, 40% of them vote Republican. The statement; "Democrats continue to hold a strong majority among a declining segment of the populace" would be a bit more accurate.
Pew also manages to bury the real import of the report by placing it further down in the summary. The shifts in favor of the Republicans in the 3rd and 4th income quintiles are astounding, the 4th more so than the 3rd. The Republican strategy of empowering the disadvantaged through ownership options and opportunities is paying very large dividends. The Democratic strategy of 'depending on dependents' is also reaping its just reward. It appears that the Democrats have yet to reach the absolute bottom of the hole being dug, given that even in the fifth quintile (also known as the non-productive section of the populace, or rent-seekers) there is a small increase in Republican support. Looking at the political situation today, it is entertaining to consider the fervor with which the Democrats continue to dig. It is as if there was an expectation that an exit will be found at the bottom of the hole.
The question then becomes; "How fares the simulacrum at this point of the interregnum?" and to find an answer I often turn to surveys conducted by the Pew Foundation (yet another liberal trust posing as being "independent"). I do so because they tend to be a bit more honest in presenting the actual data from which their carefully shaded conclusions are drawn. They also provide a bit of humor from time to time as they seek to obfuscate glaringly apparent truths with smoke and mirrors rhetoric that extends even to the titles of the pieces. A fine example of this type of flummery is to be found here. The title of the piece, "GOP Makes Gains Among The Working Class, While Democrats Hold On To The Union Vote" implies an equivalence that does not exist. Union membership applies to about 13% of the gainfully employed population. That's 13%, down from a high of 33% and continuing to fall. Although union members tend to vote at a much higher rate than those who do not belong to unions, 40% of them vote Republican. The statement; "Democrats continue to hold a strong majority among a declining segment of the populace" would be a bit more accurate.
Pew also manages to bury the real import of the report by placing it further down in the summary. The shifts in favor of the Republicans in the 3rd and 4th income quintiles are astounding, the 4th more so than the 3rd. The Republican strategy of empowering the disadvantaged through ownership options and opportunities is paying very large dividends. The Democratic strategy of 'depending on dependents' is also reaping its just reward. It appears that the Democrats have yet to reach the absolute bottom of the hole being dug, given that even in the fifth quintile (also known as the non-productive section of the populace, or rent-seekers) there is a small increase in Republican support. Looking at the political situation today, it is entertaining to consider the fervor with which the Democrats continue to dig. It is as if there was an expectation that an exit will be found at the bottom of the hole.
Has Rove gone too far this time?
I could just be overreacting again but I wish Rove would have waited until he had the hurricane generator spooled down for a maintenence interval before he unleashed an avian flu in Asia.
Thursday, September 22, 2005
I Best Stay Away from the Booze---before I Really Lose it!
I am so angry that I don’t dare enjoy an alcoholic beverage. Jonah Goldberg at The Corner received these comments from a reader:
“The traffic situation in Houston is lapsing into incompetency on the part of local and state officials. First, they tell everyone to evacuate the city, especially in low lying areas, and then they ask them to sit on highways that do not move.
Case and point: My parents left at 6 a.m. this morning for Austin (regularly a 2 1/2 hour commute). I have not been able to reach them all day until just now 4:00 p.m. I learned from them that they are still in the city of Houston. This is ridiculous!!!”
I immediately realized that the public authorities were overreacting yesterday afternoon. The areas in Houston that are in possible danger are over thirty miles from my front door. Someone like me should swallow a chill pill. My family is in decent shape---even if a Category 5 hits! There are now people trapped on the highways who originally faced only a relatively minor risk from Rita. Some of them now may die from heat stroke. Many haven’t gone to the bathroom in hours and may be desperately hungry. This is absolutely insane.
“The traffic situation in Houston is lapsing into incompetency on the part of local and state officials. First, they tell everyone to evacuate the city, especially in low lying areas, and then they ask them to sit on highways that do not move.
Case and point: My parents left at 6 a.m. this morning for Austin (regularly a 2 1/2 hour commute). I have not been able to reach them all day until just now 4:00 p.m. I learned from them that they are still in the city of Houston. This is ridiculous!!!”
I immediately realized that the public authorities were overreacting yesterday afternoon. The areas in Houston that are in possible danger are over thirty miles from my front door. Someone like me should swallow a chill pill. My family is in decent shape---even if a Category 5 hits! There are now people trapped on the highways who originally faced only a relatively minor risk from Rita. Some of them now may die from heat stroke. Many haven’t gone to the bathroom in hours and may be desperately hungry. This is absolutely insane.
Talk about stuck on stupid!
This is unadulterated stupidity. You can't make this stuff up. Legislation to require pets to be included in evacuations.
Have we all gone bark-raving mad?
Who in their right mind actually believes anyone, or any organization, government or otherwise, can evacuate large numbers of people, some of whom show up with dogs, cats, snakes, spiders, lizards, and probably freakin' fish tanks?
"Hi there, Sir. Does your snarling Rotwieller have a license indicating he's had his shots?"
"He never leaves the house. He doesn't need shots. Why are you bothering me with stupid bureaucratic BS? Just get me and my dog on the bus!"
"Ma'am, please, you need to stop screaming. Please, tell us what the problem is so we can help."
"I'm terrified of dogs, especially large dogs. I can't be on this bus with that Rot... ahhhhhhhhh!!!!"
"It's imperative that you control those cats, Sir. As you can see, we've got a lot of animals... Oh shit! George, hurry, get some of those NG troops in here, we've got cat and dog free-for-all going on! And bring a medic - that lady is bleeding pretty bad. At least she stopped screaming. Probably shock."
"Mommy, it smells like dog doo in here. I'm gonna throw up!"
Now we're supposed to send the 82nd Airborne in, have them shoot all the looters, then transition to dog-sitting. Yeah, I know, I'm overreacting. Now tell how this moronic lunacy is even remotely feasible.
Have we all gone bark-raving mad?
Who in their right mind actually believes anyone, or any organization, government or otherwise, can evacuate large numbers of people, some of whom show up with dogs, cats, snakes, spiders, lizards, and probably freakin' fish tanks?
"Hi there, Sir. Does your snarling Rotwieller have a license indicating he's had his shots?"
"He never leaves the house. He doesn't need shots. Why are you bothering me with stupid bureaucratic BS? Just get me and my dog on the bus!"
"Ma'am, please, you need to stop screaming. Please, tell us what the problem is so we can help."
"I'm terrified of dogs, especially large dogs. I can't be on this bus with that Rot... ahhhhhhhhh!!!!"
"It's imperative that you control those cats, Sir. As you can see, we've got a lot of animals... Oh shit! George, hurry, get some of those NG troops in here, we've got cat and dog free-for-all going on! And bring a medic - that lady is bleeding pretty bad. At least she stopped screaming. Probably shock."
"Mommy, it smells like dog doo in here. I'm gonna throw up!"
Now we're supposed to send the 82nd Airborne in, have them shoot all the looters, then transition to dog-sitting. Yeah, I know, I'm overreacting. Now tell how this moronic lunacy is even remotely feasible.
While the legislation may draw attention to the issue, it doesn't "have any real meat in it," said Sara Spaulding, a spokeswoman for the American Humane Association. She said uniform protocols on rescuing and sheltering animals, for example, should be formulated at the federal level with consultation from animal welfare groups.What! No meat? Howya gonna feed them? Where's the rats and crickets? Oh, yeah, sorry, they're on the bus.
Report From a Houston Citizen
It is virtually impossible to travel ten miles from my front door. I am compelled to restrict my driving to the immediate neighborhood. The freeways leading out of the city are a bumper to bumper, hair pulling out, torturous experience. I am hearing reports that it takes two hours minimum to drive one mile. How’s that for great gas milage? My family (comprising two adults and nine cats) lives in one of the safer areas of the city. The odds are that we will only endure some heavy rainfall. During the Allison disaster of 2001, our streets were mildly flooded. At the worst, we may not have any electricity for a few hours.
One for the haters, two for the slow...
Heh. Read this and this. Indeed. (ht, for the Whittle piece, to Daniel in Brookline via Roger's Place.)
YARGB - Flares into Darkness
Mickey Kaus:
In Defense of Good Policy: Matthew Yglesias charges that, by attacking the Davis-Bacon Act, I'm guilty of pursuing good policy. Instead, "progressive" Democrats should be pursuing not-so-good policies that nurture powerful pro-Democratic interests.
Really, isn't that the most honest and succinct description of politics you've ever seen?
In Defense of Good Policy: Matthew Yglesias charges that, by attacking the Davis-Bacon Act, I'm guilty of pursuing good policy. Instead, "progressive" Democrats should be pursuing not-so-good policies that nurture powerful pro-Democratic interests.
Really, isn't that the most honest and succinct description of politics you've ever seen?
What a difference a day (or 20) makes!
I have an unhealthy affinity for things trite. You know, "old sayings", adages, conventional wisdoms - that sort of thing. Stuff like never judge a book by its cover or you never get a second chance to make a first impression. I especially enjoy splatting things I've recently observed against them to see what sort of mess it makes.
Well, anyway, onward to first impressions, and second chances. I'll pick two examples, one national and the other very local.
The obvious national choice is Katrina. I spent a few minutes last night poking at a couple websites and sampling the commentary of Sep. 1, 2005. I'll leave any such effort to any readers who might drop by (in other words I'm too lazy to provide the steenking leenks and it couldn't be easier to find some for oneself). It was, for the most part, amazingly overwrought and/or inaccurate. The reality is few of us knew a darned thing about New Orleans, its levees, its floodwalls, its canals (which are canals and which are giant, openface drainpipes?). Even now, three weeks later, we know precious little. There is uncertainty (Captain's Quarters) about what actually happened to the levees... err... floodgates... err... floodwalls... err... canals... err.. Whatever! Was there topping, scouring, rampaging barges, bad design, bad construction?
On the local front My Little Neighborhood is undergoing some change. Apparently most folks prefer unending stability in matters of neighborhood. As always, not everyone is completely enamored of everyone else and old wounds fester long and deep and there are issues of "be careful what you wish for". To try and make what should be a short story less interminable - there have been changes in My Little Neighborhood recently. Specifically there have been a number of homes sold, some of which have become "rental properties" (gasp!).
To try and bring this local example toward some conclusion, the three nearest homes most directly involved in the non-stability have been lying fallow for a little while - unoccupied. This is not a case of flight or blight or obvious deterioration. As with many (most?) places real-estate prices, including rents, have risen rather dramatically and while they may be stabilizing they are well beyond the reach of those one might consider economically downtrodden.
One might imagine, I suppose, that unoccupied homes might add to the peaceful repose of a neighborhood. Nobody is amazingly quiet under normal circumstances. On the other hand Nobody is not at all good at keeping up with the yardwork and folks who move out to make way for Nobody seem remarkably prone to leaving behind large piles of stuff that doesn't seem to evaporate quickly.
Unkempt yards and non-evaporating piles of stuff have a remarkable ability to generate noise and attract visitors. They generate noise by winding up the normally peaceful neighbors to a tizzy. What's happening to our neighborhood?!? Who can pay that much money for a house and not live in it?!? Are we going to be pushed out by investors?!? As for the visitors, well, they are apparently some subset of the yard-sale aficianados and roving packs of "bored" teenagers. The first category is harmless (and provide a useful scavenging function IMHO). The second is potentially problematic.
Needless to say the tizzies were increasing in intensity.
Lo and behold, however, just yesterday a rising crescendo of whirring and rumbling and thumping and banging began. A quick, "what the heck is all this noise" recon discovered a yard crew working feverishly, a roofing gang working, well, diligently if not quite feverishly, and a moving van disgorging stuff. Oh, and yeah, some large, noisy municipal vehicles removing at least portions of the noise and visitor generating piles. The activity was well distributed among the fallow fields. One yard crew over there. One roofing crew over there. One moving van over there with the stuff removers working threading themselves among the lot.
Well, anyway, onward to first impressions, and second chances. I'll pick two examples, one national and the other very local.
The obvious national choice is Katrina. I spent a few minutes last night poking at a couple websites and sampling the commentary of Sep. 1, 2005. I'll leave any such effort to any readers who might drop by (in other words I'm too lazy to provide the steenking leenks and it couldn't be easier to find some for oneself). It was, for the most part, amazingly overwrought and/or inaccurate. The reality is few of us knew a darned thing about New Orleans, its levees, its floodwalls, its canals (which are canals and which are giant, openface drainpipes?). Even now, three weeks later, we know precious little. There is uncertainty (Captain's Quarters) about what actually happened to the levees... err... floodgates... err... floodwalls... err... canals... err.. Whatever! Was there topping, scouring, rampaging barges, bad design, bad construction?
On the local front My Little Neighborhood is undergoing some change. Apparently most folks prefer unending stability in matters of neighborhood. As always, not everyone is completely enamored of everyone else and old wounds fester long and deep and there are issues of "be careful what you wish for". To try and make what should be a short story less interminable - there have been changes in My Little Neighborhood recently. Specifically there have been a number of homes sold, some of which have become "rental properties" (gasp!).
To try and bring this local example toward some conclusion, the three nearest homes most directly involved in the non-stability have been lying fallow for a little while - unoccupied. This is not a case of flight or blight or obvious deterioration. As with many (most?) places real-estate prices, including rents, have risen rather dramatically and while they may be stabilizing they are well beyond the reach of those one might consider economically downtrodden.
One might imagine, I suppose, that unoccupied homes might add to the peaceful repose of a neighborhood. Nobody is amazingly quiet under normal circumstances. On the other hand Nobody is not at all good at keeping up with the yardwork and folks who move out to make way for Nobody seem remarkably prone to leaving behind large piles of stuff that doesn't seem to evaporate quickly.
Unkempt yards and non-evaporating piles of stuff have a remarkable ability to generate noise and attract visitors. They generate noise by winding up the normally peaceful neighbors to a tizzy. What's happening to our neighborhood?!? Who can pay that much money for a house and not live in it?!? Are we going to be pushed out by investors?!? As for the visitors, well, they are apparently some subset of the yard-sale aficianados and roving packs of "bored" teenagers. The first category is harmless (and provide a useful scavenging function IMHO). The second is potentially problematic.
Needless to say the tizzies were increasing in intensity.
Lo and behold, however, just yesterday a rising crescendo of whirring and rumbling and thumping and banging began. A quick, "what the heck is all this noise" recon discovered a yard crew working feverishly, a roofing gang working, well, diligently if not quite feverishly, and a moving van disgorging stuff. Oh, and yeah, some large, noisy municipal vehicles removing at least portions of the noise and visitor generating piles. The activity was well distributed among the fallow fields. One yard crew over there. One roofing crew over there. One moving van over there with the stuff removers working threading themselves among the lot.
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
Reason 5,375 to support Bush's SC nominations.
The Club For Growth is being sued by the FEC on the grounds that they were guilty of "express advocacy" for a candidate.
The campaign finance laws drafted by John McCain and Russ Feingold were upheld by the Supreme Court in 2003 in a 5-4 decision. Justice O'Connor joined with the liberal members of the court to produce the five member majority. Her replacement will be crucial in the outcome of this case.
The campaign finance laws drafted by John McCain and Russ Feingold were upheld by the Supreme Court in 2003 in a 5-4 decision. Justice O'Connor joined with the liberal members of the court to produce the five member majority. Her replacement will be crucial in the outcome of this case.
Argh!
Frank Martin (Varifrank) is a smart guy, but he's hit one of my pet peeves from people who don't understand probability.
This is what's known as the "Gambler's Fallacy" — the notion that if you've flipped tails five times in a row, the next flip is more likely to go heads.
In fact, each coin flip is independent: the coin doesn't know what has happened in the past.
Now, other than making fun of a common fallacy — certainly a worthy effort in itself — there's another reason to post this. As I was thinking about it, a way to point out the problem with this reasoning occurred to me that I had never thought of before. (Original? I doubt it. But new to me.)
Think about the whole population on the plane. In fact, assume that Frank, with his 750,000 miles, is sharing the plane with some five year old who has never been on a plane before in his life. If this reasoning were correct, the odds of the plane crashing have to be much higher for Frank ... but much lower for the five year old.
Since the plane can't both crash for Frank and not crash for the five year old, there has to be something wrong with the original reasoning.
When you have over 750,000 miles on just one of the big carriers, you are always aware that with each flight the odds get better of a problem occurring. Air travel is very safe, but the actuarial tables don’t lie. Fly often enough long enough and something will certainly happen and after awhile you wonder “ is this the one that does me in”?
This is what's known as the "Gambler's Fallacy" — the notion that if you've flipped tails five times in a row, the next flip is more likely to go heads.
In fact, each coin flip is independent: the coin doesn't know what has happened in the past.
Now, other than making fun of a common fallacy — certainly a worthy effort in itself — there's another reason to post this. As I was thinking about it, a way to point out the problem with this reasoning occurred to me that I had never thought of before. (Original? I doubt it. But new to me.)
Think about the whole population on the plane. In fact, assume that Frank, with his 750,000 miles, is sharing the plane with some five year old who has never been on a plane before in his life. If this reasoning were correct, the odds of the plane crashing have to be much higher for Frank ... but much lower for the five year old.
Since the plane can't both crash for Frank and not crash for the five year old, there has to be something wrong with the original reasoning.
The Many Disguises of Incompetence
or How Luck Makes Heroes of Goats
I have an expectation, and optimism, that information will emerge from New Orleans and be placed into sufficient context to grow into something like an updated, and useful, Conventional Wisdom.
I suffered a minor setback today.
Consider for a moment this WaPo article Backups Enabled Systems to Survive: Data Protection Paid Off After Katrina
Our Hero in this little vignette is:
Rajeev Jain should never have gone looking, nor needed to summon police to sledgehammer through a locked storeroom door, in the flooded, water dripping from the-damaged 4th-floor ceiling, school system HQ. Those computer backup tapes storing recently updated payroll records and other critical financial information should never have been in a storage closet in the school HQ. They should have been stored well outside the range of any disaster that might reasonably be expected to befall the school system HQ. Had this been a simple fire, or had the roof collapsed and wiped out Our Little Storeroom, Rajeev Jain would be sweating bullets and wondering how he was going to answer some very pointed questions from some irate people.
Lest you doubt my word for this:
Perhaps I come across as a grump here, but I've lived through this and counting on the storage closet to protect irreplaceable assets, electronic or otherwise, is not a good idea.
I have an expectation, and optimism, that information will emerge from New Orleans and be placed into sufficient context to grow into something like an updated, and useful, Conventional Wisdom.
I suffered a minor setback today.
Consider for a moment this WaPo article Backups Enabled Systems to Survive: Data Protection Paid Off After Katrina
Our Hero in this little vignette is:
"...interim technology manager Rajeev Jain [who] entered the building not knowing what to expect. The ground floor of the New Orleans school system headquarters was under three inches of water, and when he headed upstairs, he saw that the fourth-floor ceiling was damaged and leaking."So far so, so good. Rajeev Jain, undoubtedly doing his job, was surveying the damage to the school system HQ. He then
"...hailed police to sledgehammer through a locked door."and therein lies the fickle finger of fate pointed by Lady Luck who, on that day at least, was smiling favorably on Rajeev Jain.
"He found what he was looking for in a storage closet: 170 dry and apparently undamaged computer backup tapes storing recently updated payroll records and other critical financial information."What possible "incompetence" could this happy scenario demonstrate?
Rajeev Jain should never have gone looking, nor needed to summon police to sledgehammer through a locked storeroom door, in the flooded, water dripping from the-damaged 4th-floor ceiling, school system HQ. Those computer backup tapes storing recently updated payroll records and other critical financial information should never have been in a storage closet in the school HQ. They should have been stored well outside the range of any disaster that might reasonably be expected to befall the school system HQ. Had this been a simple fire, or had the roof collapsed and wiped out Our Little Storeroom, Rajeev Jain would be sweating bullets and wondering how he was going to answer some very pointed questions from some irate people.
Lest you doubt my word for this:
"Government institutions and large companies generally had adequate backup systems in place and data-recovery contracts with firms such as IBM to help rescue damaged data tapes and rebuild software systems. The best-prepared had backup files stored on computers outside the hurricane zone." (emphasis mine)Although storing backup files "on computer systems" is a function of how quickly one needs to achieve recovery. Storing backup files "in adequately protected facilities outside the hurricane zone" would be sufficient for some cases.
Perhaps I come across as a grump here, but I've lived through this and counting on the storage closet to protect irreplaceable assets, electronic or otherwise, is not a good idea.
Stuck on Stupid Affirmative Action Policies
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and Lt. Gen. Russel Honore are both black. That may be the only thing they have in common. Nagin is grossly incompetent and Honore is respected as a man of considerable skills and leadership. The latter has earned his way in life as a military officer. Nagin appears to have used his skin color to manipulate the private sector into awarding him millions of dollars in compensation. He was once a vice president with Cox Communications. Anyone involved in the communications industry can tell you that affirmative action “inclusionary policies” significantly influence the hiring and promotion process. Today Nagin is perhaps the worst mayor of a major American city. It is very fair to argue that affirmative action so-called remedies are responsible for much of the death and destruction in New Orleans. How much longer will this nonsense continue?
Supreme Court Nominees
Judge Roberts was a home run for the Bush Administration.
Listening to the hearings last week, I got the immediate impression that he was even more impressive than his press clippings which were impressive indeed. This impression never left me throughout the grueling sessions, all of which I watched with rapt attention.
What was not apparent from the hearings is the generally superior intelligence and training of the Senate Judiciary Commitee staffs and of the various interest group staffs trying to influence the Committee, all of whom are jockeying for the limelight in these rare events. Having worked in Washington, I can vouch for the generally high level of competence of Senate staffs.
Also keep in mind that the seating of a Chief Justice of the United States has happened before only 17 times in the nation's history. Only two of those were the subjects of nationally televised hearings: Burger in 1969, and Rehnquist in 1986 (Fortas was nominated by LBJ in 1968, but was not confirmed). That the Roberts hearing was indeed historic was no exaggeration. Moreover, the Democrats on the Judiciary Committee had much to prove. They were showcasing their jurisprudential philosophy for all to see, and they wanted to demonstrate to everyone their concern for the "little fellow". The amount of preparation for this event cannot be overstated.
Being an old (or "senior" as I prefer to be labelled) lawyer, I have worked closely with big firm lawyers and law students since 1962. Most graduated high in their classes from first class law schools. Many clerked for federal judges. A few clerked for Justices of the Supreme Court. In the law business, these talented, hard working folks were the equivalent of major league professional sports team members. Even so, few were so far ahead of the crowd that one could say with certainty that they were truly superlative so that they really stood out.
But I can say without hesitation that for my money, Judge Roberts was the judicial equivalent of Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, Jim Brown, Bobby Jones, Johnny Unitas, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. All rolled into one. He was that impressive.
Here's the proof: The ideologically liberal Washington Post and Los Angeles Times editorial pages supported this nominee of the often vilified GWB whom neither supports. When did another Republican nominee achieve that feat?
Now what?
It will be impossible to top Judge Roberts. But there are a number of exceedingly fine judges on the federal bench. I do not know any of them the way I now know Judge Roberts, but here's my advice: Nominate someone who impresses with a career marked with intelligence, integrity, fairness and modesty. Forget anyone who has demonstrated arrogance, certainty, cockiness and ideological narrowness. Make sure in the interview the nominee's personal qualities match the career reputation. Listen to what the nominee's past and present colleagues say about him or her to verify the presence of those good qualities and the absence of the bad ones. Then, hope such a nominee can perform 80% as well in the hearing as Judge Roberts. Lastly keep in mind a double ain't bad.
Listening to the hearings last week, I got the immediate impression that he was even more impressive than his press clippings which were impressive indeed. This impression never left me throughout the grueling sessions, all of which I watched with rapt attention.
What was not apparent from the hearings is the generally superior intelligence and training of the Senate Judiciary Commitee staffs and of the various interest group staffs trying to influence the Committee, all of whom are jockeying for the limelight in these rare events. Having worked in Washington, I can vouch for the generally high level of competence of Senate staffs.
Also keep in mind that the seating of a Chief Justice of the United States has happened before only 17 times in the nation's history. Only two of those were the subjects of nationally televised hearings: Burger in 1969, and Rehnquist in 1986 (Fortas was nominated by LBJ in 1968, but was not confirmed). That the Roberts hearing was indeed historic was no exaggeration. Moreover, the Democrats on the Judiciary Committee had much to prove. They were showcasing their jurisprudential philosophy for all to see, and they wanted to demonstrate to everyone their concern for the "little fellow". The amount of preparation for this event cannot be overstated.
Being an old (or "senior" as I prefer to be labelled) lawyer, I have worked closely with big firm lawyers and law students since 1962. Most graduated high in their classes from first class law schools. Many clerked for federal judges. A few clerked for Justices of the Supreme Court. In the law business, these talented, hard working folks were the equivalent of major league professional sports team members. Even so, few were so far ahead of the crowd that one could say with certainty that they were truly superlative so that they really stood out.
But I can say without hesitation that for my money, Judge Roberts was the judicial equivalent of Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, Jim Brown, Bobby Jones, Johnny Unitas, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. All rolled into one. He was that impressive.
Here's the proof: The ideologically liberal Washington Post and Los Angeles Times editorial pages supported this nominee of the often vilified GWB whom neither supports. When did another Republican nominee achieve that feat?
Now what?
It will be impossible to top Judge Roberts. But there are a number of exceedingly fine judges on the federal bench. I do not know any of them the way I now know Judge Roberts, but here's my advice: Nominate someone who impresses with a career marked with intelligence, integrity, fairness and modesty. Forget anyone who has demonstrated arrogance, certainty, cockiness and ideological narrowness. Make sure in the interview the nominee's personal qualities match the career reputation. Listen to what the nominee's past and present colleagues say about him or her to verify the presence of those good qualities and the absence of the bad ones. Then, hope such a nominee can perform 80% as well in the hearing as Judge Roberts. Lastly keep in mind a double ain't bad.
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