Captain's Quarters

Friday, August 11, 2006
Captain's Quarters: "Let's look at the resolution itself, covered in detail by the Jerusalem Post and also by The Corner. The points adopted in this proposal say nothing of an immediate withdrawal by Israel, nor does it link the war to the issue of Lebanese criminals in Israeli prisons, the motivation for starting the war in the first place. Nasrallah got skunked on the one action he hoped to accomplish, and the resulting prisoner swaps will likey involve only those captured during the war. It also explicitly puts the blame for the war on Hezbollah -- and excludes it from any other legitimation in the document.

In fact, the resolution requires Hezbollah to cease all hostilities, while it only requires Israel to cease offensive operations. Until Hezbollah stops launching rockets at Israel, the IDF has a free hand to take responsive action to stop them and take out their launch capabilities. In effect, it says that Israel can continue the fight until Hezbollah stops attacking them.

The resolution also demands the end of military support for Hezbollah and the exercise of sovereignty over southern Lebanon by the Lebanese government. That demand is not new, and had the Lebanese complied with it last year, this war would never have taken place. The Siniora government will have to control the territory south of the Litani, and according to this agreement, everywhere else in Lebanon, too."

9 comments:

lurker said...

"In fact, the resolution requires Hezbollah to cease all hostilities, while it only requires Israel to cease offensive operations. Until Hezbollah stops launching rockets at Israel, the IDF has a free hand to take responsive action to stop them and take out their launch capabilities. In effect, it says that Israel can continue the fight until Hezbollah stops attacking them."

Well, if Walid Phares is right, then this gives Israel all rights to invade all of Lebanon.

But what will that do to the ME region?

Peter UK said...

BTW,It would seem that Mr Ballard was right about the Israeli Prime Minister

Rick Ballard said...

Peter,

Imagine yourself an Israeli tank commander this morning - charged with taking fire until your idiot PM meets with the cabinet on Sunday and accepts a cease fire.

Why do I suspect that there will be an enormous amount of mechanical failures occuring in Israeli armored vehicles over the next 30 hours? The IDF is the only army in the world that could generate a brigade of chess grand masters without doing any external recruitment. They're not going to play sacrificial pawns for a cabinet of spineless fools.

Syl said...

Rick

Rhetoric aside, I think you're wrong. This happened in '73 as well. Israel has to do as much as it can before the actual ceasefire happens.

The problem I see is that this resolution has no teeth. The Lebanese army can't/won't disarm Hezbollah and the UN forces have the same mandate they always had...nothing changed on that score.

There is an arms embargo, but nothing to enforce it.

So all that has to happen is that Nasrallah declares victory and stops shooting missiles and prepares for the next time.

And we're right back where we started.

terrye said...

I agree with the Captain and Dafydd at big lizards says much the same.

Sometimes we need to look at the bigger picture. I am just amazed at how many people are ready to blame Condi Rice or Bush or whoever for this situation because they could not take that sow's ear and turn it into a silk purse.

And we need to keep in mind that Sadr is using this for propaganda in Iraq. And that place does not need anymore drama.

Seneca the Younger said...

Rick, that doesn't seem to match what Fox was saying this morning: the IDF has 30K people inside Lebanon and is continuing operations aggressively, with another bunch prepping at the border.

Rick Ballard said...

30,000 went in with remarkably light resistance - almost as if the hezzies have decided to await the arrival of their UNIFIL relief force in a week or so. So that things can return to normal.

lurker said...

Rick, you confirmed Walid's position. Hezbollah has taken over all of Lebanon. It would be up to USA to convince Saniora (not much hope there) to lead a democratic government.

Dan Gillerman gave a chilling argument last night, which implies that Israel knows this resolution is weak. USA and Israel must have plan B or C or something.

I read last night that over 55 rockets fired on 8/12. What's the total? If zero, then they're waiting for UNIFIL to take over.

Seneca the Younger said...

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said on Saturday the militant organization would abide by the U.N. cease-fire resolution but would continue fighting as long as Israeli troops remained in southern Lebanon.

He called continued resistance to the Israel offensive "our natural right."

The Shiite cleric also predicted more hard fighting to come.


What a surprise, eh? Too bad that Condi, Bolton, and Olmert are too stupid to see what is obvious to all us bloggers.