For decades China has been ruled by a group that adheres to the leadership principals of Deng Xiaoping. Deng was the person who guided China from Mao's Cultural Revolution to its modern state.
The leadership struggle among the various factions is taking place amidst an over-heated economy, an expanding military and an evolving diplomatic posture. Depending of which group emerges on top, they will either continue or supplant the leadership principals of Deng. Needless to say, the consequences of that will have great effect on regional stability and the global political order.
The article refers to Deng, and to the leaders who followed him and maintained his governing priorities as the Deng Dynasty. This naturally led me to the old prime-time soap opera Dynasty as I searched for this article's Hot Stratfor Babe.
Since conniving is likely taking place in Beijing, I settled on Joan Collins who played Alexis Dynasty's biggest female conniver. I never saw the show, but according to the show's Wikipedia article she engaged in numerous cat fights where she and her opponents were inclined to end up in various pools of water, mud puddles and the like. Sounds like quality entertainment to me.
CHINA AND THE END OF THE DENG DYNASTY
By Matthew Gertken and Jennifer Richmond, April 19, 2011
Beijing has become noticeably more anxious than usual in recent months, launching one of the more high-profile security campaigns to suppress political dissent since the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989. Journalists, bloggers, artists, Christians and others have been arrested or have disappeared in a crackdown prompted by fears that foreign forces and domestic dissidents have hatched any number of "Jasmine" gatherings inspired by recent events in the Middle East. More remarkable than the small, foreign-coordinated protests, however, has been the state's aggressive and erratic reaction to them.
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy has maintained a furious pace of credit-fueled growth despite authorities' repeated claims of working to slow growth down to prevent excessive inflation and systemic financial risks. The government's cautious approach to fighting inflation has emboldened local governments and state companies, which benefit from rapid growth. Yet the risk to socio-political stability posed by inflation, expected to peak in springtime, has provoked a gradually tougher stance. The government thus faces twin perils of economic overheating on one side and overcorrection on the other, either of which could trigger an outburst of social unrest -- and both of which have led to increasingly erratic policymaking.
These security and economic challenges are taking place at a time when the transition from the so-called fourth generation of leaders to the fifth generation in 2012 is under way. The transition has heightened disagreements over economic policy and insecurities over social stability, further complicating attempts to coordinate effective policy. Yet something deeper is driving the Communist Party of China's (CPC's) anxiety and heavy-handed security measures: the need to transform the country's entire economic model, which carries hazards that the Party fears will jeopardize its very legitimacy.
Deng's Model
Former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping is well known for launching China's emergence from Mao's Cultural Revolution and inaugurating the rise of a modern, internationally oriented economic giant. Deng's model rested on three pillars.
The first was economic pragmatism, allowing for capitalist-style incentives domestically and channels for international trade. Deng paved the way for a growth boom that would provide employment and put an end to the preceding decade of civil strife. The CPC's legitimacy thus famously became linked to the country's economic success rather than to ideological zeal and class warfare.
The second pillar was a foreign policy of cooperation. The lack of emphasis on political ideology opened space for international maneuver, with economic cooperation the basis for new relationships. This gave enormous impetus to the Sino-American detente Nixon and Mao initiated. In Deng's words, China would maintain a low profile and avoid taking the lead. China would remain unobtrusive to befriend and do business with almost any country -- as long as it recognized Beijing as the one and only China.
The third pillar was the primacy of the CPC's system. Reform of the political system along the lines of Western countries could be envisioned, but in practice would be deferred. That the reform process in no way would be allowed to undermine Party supremacy was sealed after the mass protests at Tiananmen, which the military crushed after a dangerous intra-Party struggle. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the People's Armed Police would serve as Deng's "Great Wall of steel" protecting the Party from insurrection. [continued after jump]
