Bokhari begins by giving his impression from the trip of the economic and internal security situation in Iran. He then discusses the maneuvering between Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia as they all try to exert their power in the region.
He points out that, aside from Ian's sectarian problems as a Shiite country, they also have a problem in trying to pose as booster of the Arab Spring revolots while at the same time having to support Bashir in Syria as he cracks down on his citizens.
Since the "Islamic Awakening" was a conference booth babes naturally came to mind. So, for this article the Hot Strafor Babe isn't an individual woman, rather it is an occupation -- that vital cog of industry known as the Booth Babe.
Strangely enough I couldn't find any Iranian booth babes in my search, so I selected a car show booth babe as a representative. That's probably a good thing since I noticed Knucklehead's list of suggested future Hot Stratfor Babes was weighted rather heavy with blondes, so a blonde booth babe it is.
As bonus, and because Stratfor articles have a focus on international affairs, after the article I've included a video of the booth babes of the 2008 Paris auto show. Oh-la-la!
GEOPOLITICAL JOURNEY: IRAN AT A CROSSROADS
By Kamran Bokhari, September 27, 2011
Geopolitically, a trip to Iran could not come at a better time. Iran is an emerging power seeking to exploit the vacuum created by the departure of U.S. troops from Iraq, which is scheduled to conclude in a little more than three months. Tehran also plays a major role along its eastern border, where Washington is seeking a political settlement with the Taliban to facilitate a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The Islamic republic simultaneously is trying to steer popular unrest in the Arab world in its favor. That unrest in turn has significant implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, an issue in which Iran has successfully inserted itself over the years. The question of the U.S.-Iranian relationship also looms -- does accommodation or confrontation lie ahead? At the same time, the Iranian state -- a unique hybrid of Shiite theocracy and Western republicanism -- is experiencing intense domestic power struggles.
This is the geopolitical context in which I arrived at Imam Khomeini International airport late Sept. 16. Along with several hundred foreign guests, I had been invited to attend a Sept. 17-18 event dubbed the "Islamic Awakening" conference, organized by the office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Given the state of Iranian-Western ties and my position as a senior analyst with a leading U.S.-based private intelligence company, the invitation came as surprise.
With some justification, Tehran views foreign visitors as potential spies working to undermine Iranian national security. The case of the American hikers jailed in Iran (two of whom were released the day of my return to Canada) provided a sobering example of tourism devolving into accusations of espionage.
Fortunately for me, STRATFOR had not been placed on the list of some 60 Western organizations (mostly American and British think tanks and civil society groups) banned as seditious in early 2010 following the failed Green Movement uprising. Still, the Iranian regime is well aware of our views on Iranian geopolitics.
In addition to my concerns about how Iranian authorities would view me, I also worried about how attending a state-sponsored event designed to further Iranian geopolitical interests where many speakers heavily criticized the United States and Israel would look in the West. In the end, I set my trepidations aside and opted for the trip.
Geopolitical Observations in Tehran
STRATFOR CEO and founder George Friedman has written of geopolitical journeys, of how people from diverse national backgrounds visiting other countries see places in very different ways. In my case, my Pakistani heritage, American upbringing, Muslim religious identity and Canadian nationality allowed me to navigate a milieu of both locals and some 700 delegates of various Arab and Muslim backgrounds. But the key was in the way STRATFOR trains its analysts to avoid the pitfall that many succumb to -- the blurring of what is really happening with what we may want to see happen.
The foreigner arriving in Iran immediately notices that despite 30 years of increasingly severe sanctions, the infrastructure and systems in the Islamic republic appear fairly solid. As a developing country and an international pariah, one would expect infrastructure along the lines of North Korea or Cuba. But Iran's construction, transportation and communications infrastructure shares more in common with apartheid-era South Africa, and was largely developed indigenously.
Also notable was the absence of any visible evidence of a police state. Considering the state's enormous security establishment and the recent unrest surrounding the Green Movement, I expected to see droves of elite security forces. I especially expected this in the northern districts of the capital, where the more Westernized segment of society lives and where I spent a good bit of time walking and sitting in cafes.
Granted, I didn't stay for long and was only able to see a few areas of the city to be able to tell, but the only public display of opposition to the regime was "Death to Khamenei" graffiti scribbled in small letters on a few phone booths on Vali-e-Asr Avenue in the Saadabad area. I saw no sign of Basij or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel patrolling the streets, only the kind of police presence one will find in many countries.
This normal security arrangement gave support to STRATFOR's view from the very beginning that the unrest in 2009 was not something the regime couldn't contain. As we wrote then and I was able to see firsthand last week, Iran has enough people who -- contrary to conventional wisdom -- support the regime, or at the very least do not seek its downfall even if they disagree with its policies.
I saw another sign of support for the Islamic republic a day after the conference ended, when the organizers arranged a tour of the mausoleum of the republic's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. We visited the large complex off a main highway on the southern end of town on a weekday; even so, numerous people had come to the shrine to pay their respects -- several with tears in their eyes as they prayed at the tomb.
Obviously, the intensity of religious feelings varies in Iran, but a significant stratum of the public remains deeply religious and still believes in the national narrative of the revolutionary republic. This fact does not get enough attention in the Western media and discourse, clouding foreigners' understanding of Iran and leading to misperceptions of an autocratic clergy clinging to power only by virtue of a massive security apparatus. [continued after the jump]
