Sunday, August 02, 2020

Brute force

Illustration from Hysteria and Certain Allied Conditions
(click image to enlarge)

Based on the data, there seems to be no relationship between lockdowns and lives saved. That’s remarkable, given that we know for sure that lockdowns have destroyed economies the world over.

Every epidemic model being flung around in March built in the assumption that lockdowns would control the virus. In the early days, it was about preserving hospital capacity. Later it became a general principle: slow the spread. The methods were the same in nearly every country. Ban large gatherings. Close schools. Shutter businesses. Enforce stay-home orders. Mandate human separation. Masks. Travel restrictions.

Nothing like this has been tried in the whole history of humanity, certainly not on this scale. You might suppose, then, there was absolute certainty that there would be a causal relationship between lockdowns and the trajectory of the virus. Just as the FDA doesn’t approve a drug unless it is proven to be safe and effective, one might suppose the same would be true for a policy that shattered every routine and trampled human rights in the name of disease mitigation.

Surely! It turns out that this is not the case. It was pure speculation that lockdowns would suppress this virus, and that speculation was based on a hubristic presumption of the awesome power and intelligence of government managers.

For five months, governments all over the world have been freaking out, ordering people around to do this and that, passing mandate after mandate, and yet there is no evidence that any of it matters to the virus.

Already in mid-April questions arose...

-The Virus Doesn’t Care about Your Policies by Jeffrey A. Tucker


Borepatch said...

Wow. The correlation charts are mind blowing

ambisinistral said...

It is pretty hard to make sense out of most the data on the virus because it is presented so poorly. For example, we know that most of the fatalities are people in their 60s and above. Would average age of the various countries be different enough to account for some of the scatter? I doubt it, but who knows.

The governmental reaction to it seems to be monumental overreaction to it, but what strikes me is that the overreaction has been on a global scale. I'm not generally big on conspiracy theories, but it's almost like the global decision makers are reacting to something other than what the rest of us know. Maybe they knew it came out of a lab and were expecting something much worse?

Don't know, it all puzzles me.