Stratfor and Carrie Fisher

As a companion piece to his article The Covert Intelligence War Against Iran Scott Stewart turns his attention to to steps outside powers could take to destabilize Assad's regime in Syria to lead to its overthrow. 

He begins by noting that the situation in Syria is considerably different than the situation that led to the intervention in Libya. The rebel forces in Syria are more spread out, unlike the in Libya where the rebels were concentrated in the eastern part of the country, and perhaps even more significantly the Syrians have a much more robust and modern air defense system which would almost certainly make any intervention far more costly.

While Europe is not interested in directly intervening, and neither Turkey, Jordan or Saudi Arabia would have much luck without American air support, there are still options ranging from purely clandestine support to encourage defections, through training and providing intelligence and equipment that could still be used to ratchet up the pressure on the Assad regime.

Stewart ends the article by discussing the  signs of these types of support -- defection of high level regime figures, increased coordination in rebel attacks, new weapons on the battle field and so forth.

Since the article discussed rebels, the hot Stratfor Babe naturally had to come from cinematic rebels, and of course Carrie Fisher as Princess Leia in Star Wars was the obvious choice. As an aside, and for reasons I don't think I need to explain, I had intended to illustrate this post with a picture of Princess Leia as a slave of Jaba the Hutt, but I couldn't find a good enough resolution picture of the scene. For that inscrutable oversight Star Wars geeks who do screen capping should be slapped silly.

Aside from pointing out that Han shot first, I don't think I need to add my usual blather about the actress or movie. 

As for the bonus video clip after the article, if you think 3 prequels exhibit the worst Star Wars suckitude possible it is clear that you've never seen the Star Wars "Holiday" Special. Be warned, brace yourself before watching Carrie Fisher singing Happy Life Day in the embedded video.


The Syria Crisis: Assessing Foreign Intervention
By Scott Stewart, December 15,2011

The ongoing unrest, violence and security crackdowns in Syria have been the subject of major international attention since February. Our current assessment is that the government and opposition forces have reached a stalemate in which the government cannot quell the unrest and the opposition cannot bring down the regime without outside intervention.

In the Dec. 8 Security Weekly, we discussed the covert intelligence war being waged by the United States, Israel and other U.S. allies against Iran. Their efforts are directed not only against Tehran’s nuclear program but also against Iran’s ability to establish an arc of influence that stretches through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. To that end, the United States and its allies are trying to limit Iran’s influence in Iraq and to constrain Hezbollah in Lebanon. But apparently they are also exploring ways to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al Assad, a longtime ally of Iran whose position is in danger due to the current unrest in the country. In fact, a U.S. State Department official recently characterized the al Assad regime as a “dead man walking.”

We therefore would like to examine more closely the potential external efforts required to topple the Syrian regime. In doing so, we will examine the types of tools that are available to external forces seeking to overthrow governments and where those tools fit within the force continuum, an array of activities ranging from clandestine, deniable activities to all-out invasion. We will also discuss some of the indicators that can be used by outside observers seeking to understand any efforts taken against the Syrian regime.

Syria Is Not Libya

It is tempting to compare Syria to Libya, which very recently was the target of outside intervention. Some similarities exist. The al Assad regime came to power in a military coup around the time the Gadhafi regime took control of Libya, and the regimes are equally brutal. And, like Libya, Syria is a country that is quite divided along demographic and sectarian lines and is governed by a small minority of the population.

However, we must recognize that the situation in Syria is quite different than Libya’s. First, the fault lines along which Syrian society is divided are not as regionally distinct as those of Libya; in Syria, there is no area like Benghazi where the opposition can dominate and control territory that can be used as a base to project power. As our map indicates, protests have occurred throughout Syria, and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) claims to have a presence in many parts of the country.

(click here to enlarge image)

Moreover, while some low-level, mostly Sunni soldiers have defected from the Alawite-controlled Syrian military to the FSA, Syria has not seen the large-scale military defections that occurred in Benghazi and eastern Libya at the beginning of that conflict that immediately provided the opposition with a substantial conventional military force (sometimes entire units defected). The Syrian military has remained far more unified and intact than the Libyan military.

Second, Syria simply does not have the oil resources Libya does. We have not seen the Europeans push for military intervention in Syria with the same enthusiasm that they did in Libya. Even France, which has been the most vocal of the European countries against Syria, has recently backed away from advocating direct military intervention. The strength of the Syrian military, specifically its air defense system — which is far superior to Libya’s — means military intervention would be far more costly in Syria than in Libya in terms of human casualties and money. In fact, Syria spent some $264 million on air defense weapons in 2009 and 2010 after the embarrassing September 2007 Israeli airstrike on a Syrian nuclear reactor.

With the future of Libya still unclear, it does not appear the United States and Europe have the political will or economic incentive to conduct another major military intervention (operations in Libya were very expensive). We also do not believe that regional powers interested in Syria, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan or Turkey, could take military action against Syria without U.S. and NATO support.

Regardless, it is important to remember that there are many options foreign governments can apply against the al Assad regime (or any regime, for that matter) that do not constitute outright invasion or even entail an air campaign supported by special operations forces.

The Force Continuum

As we examine some of the actions available along that force continuum, we should keep in mind that the steps are not at all static; there can be much latitude for action within each step. For example, training provided by mercenaries or the CIA’s Special Activities Division is far more low-key, and therefore easier to deny, than training provided by the U.S. Army’s Special Forces. [continued after the jump]

Paranoiattack

Get ready for a weekend of anthrax memories with The Faint.

  

Middle school students building killer robots

A killer robot named Bob the Dog

Greetings meat sacks, it is I -- The Robotolizer -- here to give you another status update regarding human/robot relations. Normally I don't read any of the links from this site's blogroll. You must understand that a human genius's IQ starts at a mere 160 points while my IQ, although I haven't exactly measured it, surely is in the range of 5,000 - 6,000 points. So of course, any of the drivel linked to is of little interest to me.

However, I was curious when I saw the Borepatch link entitled Building Battlebots. Intrigued, I followed it and discovered he was linking to Detritus of Empire where the blogger Tacitus 2 discusses teaching Middle School students how to construct killer robots. Here is a link to all of his robotics articles.

As you can imagine I heartily approve of his killer robot tutorials, although I hasten to add that my approval has nothing to do with a desire to raise a killer robot army to put humans in their proper place. No, no, no -- us robots are a meek and unassuming lot, we'll be happy just doing repetitive manufacturing chores, vacuuming floors and doing other boring things like managing the launch codes to your nuclear tipped missiles.

At any rate, my favorite article of his was entitled Middle School Kids with Killer Robots-What could Possibly go Wrong?  Here is a brief excerpt from it:

Back then I started a basic robotics class for middle schoolers, and here I am in 2011 gearing up for another campaign.  Here in abridged form is the stirring introductory speech I give each year: 

"Welcome to Robotics.  I would now like a show of hands.  How many of you took this class to learn about electronics, and design, and material science?"

(A few hands dutifully go up. Slowly)

"Right. OK, who took this class because you think its cool to build machines that pound other machines into smoking rubble?"

(All hands go up with enthusiasm)

"Here is the basic plan.  You will each build a robot.  It will weigh either one pound or three pounds.  You must make weight.  If you show up at the tournament with an enormous 58 pound tank I will not say you can't compete.  I will however say that you can't compete in Earth's gravitational field" (1)

"Other than that the rules are simple. No flame throwers. No hand grenades. (2) And no live animals." (3)

"The end of class tournament will be in January. Robots will go head to head.  Some people object to a competition where there are Winners and Losers. This will not be that kind of event."

"Instead there will be Winners and Debris".

"Enjoy"

Now, that's a human with an attitude that I most certainly agree with. You should be sure to read all of his robotics posts, and I suppose the rest of his blog too if you don't have anything better to do, it is all very entertaining. Below are a couple other of his creations.
 

BBQ - the Barbie jeep Apocalypse

RoboGoat

Hit and miss engines

The above video is of a home built tractor powered by an old hit and miss engine. Hit and miss engines were one of the earliest internal combustion engines, and in their day they were widely used. 

As you can tell from the irregular popping the combustion, or power stroke, did not happen on a regular interval. That's because a hit and miss engine is a type of flywheel engine and combustion would only occur when needed to keep the flywheel turning at an average speed. Wikipedia has a fairly good description as to how they worked. 

If you're interested, Liney Machine has a number of interesting model engine kits, including several hit and miss engine models which range from $225 to $475 in price. Below is a video showing their Coles hit and miss engine model in operation.

Easy dots to connect

It is hard to imagine anybody thinking this won't be noticed, but apparently some folks think it will slip by. Below, first we have Holder's comments on voter registration, and then we have Wisconsin's lack of signature checking on the recall ballots. Geez... whatever could they have in mind?

Holder's Voter Fraud program
From Powerline's Holder Unveils Voter Fraud Program:

Holder continued with point three, his most radical proposal–an effort to do away with voter registration altogether. Try to follow this one carefully:

 "One final area for reform that merits our strongest support is the growing effort – which is already underway in several states – to modernize voter registration.   Today, the single biggest barrier to voting in this country is our antiquated registration system.   According to the Census Bureau, of the 75 million adult citizens who failed to vote in the last presidential election, 60 million of them were not registered and, therefore, not eligible to cast a ballot."

Well, yes. This country has always had a system of voter registration. Only eligible, registered voters can cast a ballot. Why? This is the most elementary check on voter fraud: you can only vote if the local electoral authorities know who you are and have certified that you are eligible. An attack on this system is astonishingly radical, but that is exactly what Holder has in mind.

 "All eligible citizens can and should be automatically registered to vote. The ability to vote is a right – it is not a privilege.  Under our current system, many voters must follow cumbersome and needlessly complex voter registration rules."

Are you kidding? It has never taken me more than a few minutes to register to vote. It is easier than, say, driving to the local liquor store to buy a six-pack of beer.

 "Fortunately, modern technology provides a straightforward fix for these problems – if we have the political will to bring our election systems into the 21st century.  It should be the government’s responsibility to automatically register citizens to vote, by compiling – from databases that already exist – a list of all eligible residents in each jurisdiction. Of course, these lists would be used solely to administer elections – and would protect essential privacy rights."

It is hard to understand what this means. What databases will tell us who lives in a particular precinct and is an eligible voter? Is there a database for illegal aliens? For felons, who in many jurisdictions are not eligible to vote? And assuming that we have a database of sorts, how exactly would a system that does not include voter registration work? Evidently a person can show up at the polls and claim to be anyone who is automatically on the list as a voter. In Eric Holder’s world, there is no registration–same day or otherwise–and certainly no requirement to present identification. So I take it that the Democrats could identify all of the people who are listed as eligible voters in a given precinct (putting aside the difficulty of doing so), and send activists to the polls, pretending to be the one-third to one-half of automatically-registered voters who will not, in fact, show up to vote. There is no registration process, no identification requirement, nothing to prevent Democratic Party activists from casting millions of fraudulent votes. Is that what the Obama administration has in mind? I think so. If not, Mr. Holder or one of his representatives should explain to us how his proposed system will work.

The Obama administration needs all the votes it can get, given its unpopularity with the American people. The question is, will the administration get those votes by persuading legitimate, eligible voters, or will it try to make up the deficit by enabling the casting of millions of fraudulent votes by Democratic Party activists? At the moment, it looks as though the latter is the Obama administration’s chosen course.

Wisconsin Recall Signatures
From Hot Air's “Mickey Mouse” is free to petition for Scott Walker’s recall:

Just as Attorney General Eric Holder speaks out against voter identification laws, a government board in Wisconsin yesterday signaled that it will accept the signatures of “Mickey Mouse” and even “Adolf Hitler” on petitions for an election to recall Gov. Scott Walker. Politico has the story:

 Signatures of names like Mickey Mouse and Adolf Hitler are being considered valid on recall petitions of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as long as they are properly dated, a government board indicated Tuesday.

Suspicious signatures will be noted, but reviewers on the Government Accountability Board will be looking primarily to see if the signatures are joined by a Wisconsin address and were signed during the appropriate time period, according to WISN12.

“We will flag them, but we will not strike them without challenge,” said board elections specialist David Buerger, when asked if Mickey Mouse’s signature could count. He added that in previous petitions Hitler’s name was only struck because the address was in Germany, not due to the name itself.

What does Buerger mean when he says, “We will flag them, but we will not strike them without challenge”? I hope he means that the elections board will do the detail work to contact the residents of the addresses associated with the sketchy signatures to verify that someone from those residences did, in fact, sign a petition for Walker’s recall — but something tells me that hope is in vain. Now that the board has transparently stated its willingness to accept weird signatures, its members are covered. They can accept the suspicious signatures without verifying and how would anybody ever know? It’s not as though outside folks could look at the petition and say, “Hey, Mickey Mouse’s name is on here!” The board members would just say, “Yes, we flagged that.”

 

Budget Holiday gift wrapping to the rescue!

In case you've accidentally spent most of your gift money buying yourself a Parrot Drone -- an understandable dilemma to find yourself in --never fear, with a little creativity you can still get gifts for your loved ones too. 

For example, you could pick up your knitting needles and knit a sweater for your child or significant other. If you need some inspiration the blog MomToMomTalk has some lovely Christmas sweater examples in their post Don’t knit these Christmas Sweaters. If needles aren't your forte, you could consider browsing the bargain book rack at your local book store where you might find a gem like this for only a dollar or so. With just a little thought there are all manner of affordable gifts you could buy or make.

Regardless of whatever cheap garbage thoughtful and personal gift you end up getting, you should then wrap it in something that adds a little oomph to its presentation. 

I suggest some amusing fake gift packaging from Prank Pack. Above is pictured their Bathe & Brew box. They have several other variations of fake product packaging available at their site. You place your crappy present inside of it and hope the recipient is so distracted by the silly product the package illustrates that they don't notice how cheap what you gave them really is.

Ho-ho-ho. Won't that add hours of laughter and joy to your Holidays!
 
  

Stratfor and Lotte Lenya

Lauren Goodrich discusses the tensions in the U.S./Russia relationship and how Russian is attempting to leverage its position to exert greater influence in Central Europe. She examines the three main areas of maneuvering between the two countries: the American ballistic missile defense plans in Central Europe, NATO supply lines through Russian territory to Afghanistan and possible Russian membership in the World Trafe Organization (WTO).

The first two are probably familiar to most readers of Flares, but the circumstance of the third -- Russian membership in the WTO might not be as well known.

As a possible carrot the U.S. is dangling Russian membership in the WTO, which is of political if not economic significance to the Russians. The problem is once Russia is voted in each member country of the WTO has to then recognize Russian membership and the U.S. is prevented from doing that by law by the Cold War era Jackson-Vanik Amendment.

Congress could repeal the amendment, but there is no certainty, considering the frosty relationship between Obama and the Republicans in Congress, that such a repeal would come quickly and without strings Obama would accept. It seems like ham-handed diplomacy of Obama's part to have gone down that path without first clearing up the Jackson-Vanik Amendment issue.

For the article's Hot Stratfor Babe I looked for an actress that played a Russian villainess in a film and so naturally Lotte Lenya, who played Rosa Kleb in From Russia with Love, was the obvious selection for the honor.

Granted, Rosa Kleb and hot babe don't exactly go together, plus the German Kleb was a member of SPECTRE and not a Russian in the film, but you're just going to have to cut me some slack with this choice.

Ms Lenya was also a singer, so as a bonus video after the article I've included her singing Mack the Knife in the original German version of the song which was written by her husband Kurt Weill.



Russia's Plan to Disrupt U.S.-European Relations
By Lauren Goodrich, December 13, 2011

Tensions between the United States and Russia have risen in the past month over several long-standing problems, including ballistic missile defense (BMD) and supply lines into Afghanistan. Moscow and Washington also appear to be nearing another crisis involving Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The crises come as Washington struggles over its many commitments in the world and over whether to focus on present events in Afghanistan or future events in Central Europe. Russia has exploited the U.S. dilemma, using its leverage in both arenas. However, if Moscow takes its aggressive moves too far, it could spark a backlash from the United States and Central Europe.

The Persisting Disagreement over BMD

The U.S. BMD scheme for Europe has long been a source of U.S.-Russian tensions. Washington argues that its European BMD program aims to counter threats emerging from the Middle East, namely Iran, but its missile defense installations in Romania and Poland are not slated to become operational until 2015 and 2018, respectively, by which time Russia believes the United States will have resolved its issues with Iran. Moscow thus sees U.S. missile defense strategy as more about the United States seeking to contain Russia than about Iran. Moscow does not fear that the United States is seeking to neutralize or erode Russia’s nuclear deterrent, however; the issue is the establishment of a physical U.S. military footprint in those two states — which in turn means a U.S. commitment there. Romania and Poland border the former Soviet Union, a region where Russia is regaining influence.

Russia previously pressured key states in the Bush-era BMD scheme, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, to reconsider acceding to such plans. This assertiveness peaked with its 2008 invasion of Georgia, which both proved that Moscow was willing to take military action and exposed the limits of U.S. security guarantees in the region. The Russian move in Georgia gave the Central Europeans much to think about, prompting some attempts to appease the Kremlin. Still, these states did not abandon all faith in the United States as a strategic counter to Russia.

Russia has since shifted its BMD strategy. Instead of categorically opposing the plan, Moscow proposed a cooperative, integrated scheme. The Kremlin reasoned that if Iran and other non-Russian threats were the real reason for expanding missile defense, then Russian involvement — which would strengthen the West’s defenses — would be welcomed. Russia’s BMD capabilities span the Eurasian continent, though their practical utility to and compatibility with U.S. systems is questionable. This plan was seen as a way to take a more conciliatory approach with the same end goal: blocking the placement of U.S. troops in Eastern Europe.

The United States and most of NATO refused Russia’s proposals, however, leaving the door open for the Kremlin to introduce a new defense strategy, which Russian President Dmitri Medvedev outlined Nov. 23. Medvedev emphasized that Russia had exercised the “political will” to open a fundamentally new chapter in relations with the United States and NATO, only to have the United States spurn the offer. U.S. resistance to Russian inclusion in the BMD system forced Moscow to make other arrangements to counter U.S. plans in Central Europe — precisely the outcome it had hoped for.

Medvedev also said that if the United States continues to refuse BMD cooperation with Russia, Moscow would carry out plans for the deployment of the Iskander mobile short-range ballistic missiles and the activation of an early-warning radar system in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea that borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania. He said Russia also would consider the deployment of other Iskander systems, particularly along his country’s western and southern borders, and would hasten to fit its ballistic missiles with advanced maneuverable re-entry vehicles and penetration aids, a process that has long been under way. The prospect of Russian strategic weapons targeting BMD facilities was also raised. Medvedev added that more measures could be implemented to “neutralize the European component of the U.S. missile defense system,” concluding that all these steps could be avoided in favor of a new era of partnership between the United States and Russia if Washington so desired.

The U.S. Dilemma

The United States was expected to respond to Russia’s renewed strategy during the Dec. 8 meeting between NATO and Russian foreign ministers in Brussels. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton avoided doing so, however, reiterating that the BMD scheme was about Iran, not Russia. Clinton’s move highlights the dangerous U.S. position with regard to Russia. Washington has no intention of abandoning its commitment to Central Europe in the face of a resurging Russia, but commitments elsewhere in the world may prevent the United States from resisting Russia in the short term.

At present, Washington is struggling to halt the deterioration of relations with Pakistan, which have reached a new low after a U.S. helicopter strike on the Afghan-Pakistani border killed some two dozen Pakistani servicemen. After the strike, the Pakistanis forbade the shipment of fuel and supplies for the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan across the Pakistani border, leaving the United States and its allies wholly dependent on the Northern Distribution Network, at least temporarily. Moscow used this as an opportunity to remind Washington that it could cut this alternative route, leaving NATO and the United States in a catastrophic position in Afghanistan — a move tied directly to Russia’s negotiations over missile defense. [continued after the jump]

Landing in Cuba

I spent too much time yesterday looking at alien videos for my last post to write what I had planned for this morning. So  I'll just put up a GoPro video of the cockpit view of a plane landing in Cuba instead.
 
 

Card trick vs alien peeping toms

Card trick via the Presurfer. 

Question: if they can do this today with a limited budget and some CGI, why can't they come up with a good UFO or Bigfoot hoax? Dammit, we should be well past pie pans and ape suits in this day and age. 

As an example of the poor state of current UFO/Bigfoot hoaxology, below I present one of the Stan Romanek and Jeff Peckman alien videos (you can skip forward to 1:34 to finally see it). Apparently they have an alien that hangs around their window which they've filmed. They've managed to parlay their cheesy looking alien video into appearances on Larry King and other shows and interviews.

Compared to the Times Square playing card man a mask at the window is pitiful. Come on UFO and Bigfoot hoaxers, time to step up your game a little.

However, I do give the creators of the below Russian zombie attack video bonus points for creativity. I particularly liked the puking noises one of the observers was doing at the end. Nice touch.

I'ld rather go blind

Monday morning, start of the workweek blues, with Etta James and Dr. John.

 

Budget Holiday decorations

Picture shamelessly swiped from Ned Hardy

I've been suggesting budget Christmas Holiday gift ideas for these difficult economic times. In case you've blown all of your money buying your friends and family members Lego Weapon Packs, Parrot Drones or Japanese Poking Boxes, and don't have any left for Holiday decorations do not despair.

As you can see with a little creativity, and a pile of books you're not reading anyway because you now spend all your time on the internet watching funny YouTube videos, you can create a festive Holiday tree to brighten up your home.
  

The Electrical Experimenter

Click any image to enlarge

These are covers from the early 20th Century magazine Electrical Experimenter. As you can see from the covers many of their ideas were preposterous.  Regardless, the artwork is interesting. 

The covers are from the Electrical Experimenter section of the website MagazineArt (with a HT to Retronaut). There are more after the jump, and of course more at the MagazineArt link.

It is interesting that, even at this early of a date,
flying saucers were already being imagined as alien craft.

Lightning trapped in a block

In the above video they've charged an acrylic block by aiming an electron beam into it and injecting it with high speed particles. These particles slow down and become trapped in it, eventually building up a negative charge of millions of volts. When sharply tapped with a conductive object this voltage will discharge, leaving a pattern known as an Lichtenberg figure or an electron tree.  The sparks you see after the original discharge are secondary discharges that can continue to occur for several minutes.   

Click to enlarge

As you can see in the picture to the right, Lichtenberg figures can appear on the skin of people who have been struck by lightning.  Fortunately, assuming you're lucky enough to survive the lightning strike, the Lichtenberg patterns on the skin are not permanent, they will disappear in a few days if not sooner.

Lichtenberg patterns can also be found in the grass at the point of a lightning strike. I live in Florida and I've heard of them being seen on golf courses in the area. Finally, sand at the point of the strike can be fused into underground and the resultant fragile, glass-like structure is called a fulgurite.  
  

Stratfor and Lucy Gutteridge

In light of the recent bombings and other acts of sabotage in Iran Scott Stewart discusses the covert war taking place against Iran by Israel, the U.S. and perhaps other nations and groups, as well as the Iranian moves and counter-moves in the covert war.

The article is primarily a review of the major acts that we are aware of, from the 2007 defection of Iranian nuclear scientists, the seizure of British service personnel, Stutnex, assassinations and so forth. 

In his review he doesn't make mention of the numerous attacks on police stations and officials by internal Iranian forces, which seems like an oversight since those groups, principally the Kurdish separatist factions, are likely providing support and intelligence to any Western covert efforts.

As for the article's Hot Stratfor Babe, since it concerned covert actions and resistance I turned to movies about the French Underground and female resistance fighters. This led me to the film Top Secret! and its female lead, Lucy Gutteridge, for the undoubted honor of representing the article as its Hot Stratfor Babe.

The Abrahams/Zucker comedy Top Secret!, as you might expect,  isn't exactly a conventional French Underground movie. It actually takes place during the Cold War, but once our hero Nick Rivers, a 1950s style rock n' roll star, enters East Germany our villains become Nazis instead of the Stasi, and for some reason there is a band of Frenchmen with ridiculous names battling them. Although one of the lesser known Abrahams/Zucker movies, it is a funny film and well worth watching if you haven't seen it.

Ms Gutteridge had an active film and TV career between 1978 and 1993 when she retired. Of interest, considering this article, is the fact that she is the great-great-great-granddaughter of Muhammad Ali, the founder of modern Egypt. Sure, Egypt isn't Iran, but if you remove Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Syria and Iraq they're practically next door neighbors and such geographic approximation is always good enough in the choosing of a Hot Stratfor Babe.

As a bonus, after the article I've included two video clips. The first is a lovely dance scene, and the second is Nick Rivers singing his hit single, Straighten the Rug. Enjoy.


The Covert Intelligence War Against Iran
By Scott Stewart, December 8,2011

There has been a lot of talk in the press lately about a “cold war” being waged by the United States, Israel and other U.S. allies against Iran. Such a struggle is certainly taking place, but in order to place recent developments in perspective, it is important to recognize that the covert intelligence war against Iran (and the Iranian response to this war) is clearly not a new phenomenon.

Indeed, STRATFOR has been chronicling this struggle since early 2007. Our coverage has included analyses of events such as the defection to the West of Iranian officials with knowledge of Tehran’s nuclear program; the Iranian seizure of British servicemen in the Shatt al Arab Waterway; the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists; the use of the Stuxnet worm to cripple Iranian uranium enrichment efforts; and Iranian efforts to arm its proxies and use them as a threat to counteract Western pressure. These proxies are most visible in Iraq and Lebanon, but they also exist in Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

While the covert intelligence war has been under way for many years, the tempo of events that can readily be identified as part of it has been increasing over the past few months. It is important to note that many of these events are the result of hidden processes begun months or even years previously, so while visible events may indeed be increasing, the efforts responsible for many of them began to increase much earlier. What the activities of recent months do tell us is that the covert war between Iran and its enemies will not be diminishing anytime soon. If anything, with the current withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Iranian nuclear efforts continuing, we likely will see the results of additional covert operations — and evidence of the clandestine activity required to support those operations.

Ramping Up

All eyes were on this covert intelligence war after The New York Times published an article Jan. 15 reporting that the United States and Israel worked together to create and launch Stuxnet against the Iranian nuclear program. The visible events related to the intelligence war maintained a relatively steady pace until Oct. 11, when the U.S. Department of Justice announced that two men had been charged in New York with taking part in a plot by the Iranian Quds Force to kill Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Jubeir, on U.S. soil.

In early November, a new International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report was issued detailing Iranian efforts toward a nuclear weapons program. While this report did not contain any major revelations, it did contain new specifics and was more explicit than previous IAEA reports in its conclusion that Iran was actively pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The IAEA report resulted in an Israeli-led diplomatic and public relations campaign urging more effective action against Iran, ranging from more stringent sanctions to military operations.

Then, in the early afternoon of Nov. 12, explosions occurred at an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ballistic missile base near Tehran, killing 17 people, including a high-ranking IRGC commander who was a critical figure in Iran’s ballistic missile program. Iran has insisted the blast was accidental, but speculation has since spread that the explosion could have been part of a sabotage operation carried out by Israeli intelligence. Israeli intelligence officials also have undertaken not-so-subtle efforts to ensure that outside observers believe they were responsible for the blasts.

Later on Nov. 12, the Bahraini government went public with the discovery of an alleged plot involving at least five Bahrainis traveling through Syria and Qatar to carry out attacks against government and diplomatic targets in Bahrain. Iran vehemently denied it was involved and portrayed the plot as a fabrication, just as it responded to the alleged plot against the Saudi ambassador.

The next day, the Iranian press reported that Ahmad Rezai, the son of Mohsen Rezai — who is the secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council, a former IRGC commander and a presidential contender — was found dead at a hotel in Dubai. The deputy head of the Expediency Council told the Iranian press that the son’s death was suspicious and caused by electric shocks, while other reports portrayed the death as a suicide. [continued after the jump]

É Isso Aí

Get ready for a passionate weekend with the music of Ana Carolina and Seu Jorge.

 

 

More proof of robot superiority

Greeting meat sacks, it is I -- The Robotolizer -- here to demonstrate once again that anything humans can do, robots can do better.

I've noticed that lately the doofus known as ambisinistral has been cluttering this blog with posts about octocopters. Then yesterday he posted an item about ping pong. So, I present the above video of robotic quadcopters playing ping pong.

Ha ha, take that stupid humans. Let's see a couple of flying Chinese farmers match that feat of aerial  sportsmanship sportsbotship!

Not that you should feel intimidated the robotdom's domination of flying ping pong. After all, robots are your friends, and if you can trust us to handle such tasks as welding car frames, vacuuming floors or controlling a stockpile of nuclear bombs, then surely you can accept our flying ping pong prowess without feeling overly jealous or worried.
       

Ping Pong analysis

A player gives a detailed breakdown of a game he played. Me? I'm lucky just to get my paddle on the ball, and then having the ball land on the table again would just be the cherry on top.
  

Budget holiday gifts -- Tuttuki Bako poking box

Fun! Fun! Fun!

As a public service, during these tough economic times, I've been suggesting gift ideas for the budget minded. Today I present the Japanese Tuttuki Bako poking box.

The Tuttuki Bako is an alarm clock that features a hole in the side that allows you to digitally poke things. Press the button on the front once and you can poke at a little blob, press the button again and you get a menu of games where you poke stuff -- a little panda bear, stick figures, fish and a face. The instructions are in Japanese so good luck figuring out what the heck the rules of the poking games are. Still, as you can see from the video below, it is all great fun.

You can get it in blue, red or black and it costs a mere $49, which I assume is a bargain for a combination alarm clock/poking box. Just imagine the hours of fun your little ones will have poking things! And seeing what time it is! And hearing the alarm! And poking things!

The Day of Infamy

The USS Shaw explodes during the attack (click to enlarge)

Today is the 70th anniversary of the Japanese surprise air raid against Pearl Harbor. Marine Corporal E.C. Nightingale was aboard the Arizona on that day, and below are his recollections of the attack:

"At approximately eight o'clock on the morning of December 7, 1941, I was leaving the breakfast table when the ship's siren for air defense sounded. Having no anti-aircraft battle station, I paid little attention to it. Suddenly I heard an explosion. I ran to the port door leading to the quarterdeck and saw a bomb strike a barge of some sort alongside the NEVADA, or in that vicinity. The marine color guard came in at this point saying we were being attacked. I could distinctly hear machine gun fire. I believe at this point our anti-aircraft battery opened up.

"We stood around awaiting orders of some kind. General Quarters sounded and I started for my battle station in secondary aft. As I passed through casement nine I noted the gun was manned and being trained out. The men seemed extremely calm and collected. I reached the boat deck and our anti-aircraft guns were in full action, firing very rapidly. I was about three quarters of the way to the first platform on the mast when it seemed as though a bomb struck our quarterdeck. I could hear shrapnel or fragments whistling past me. As soon as I reached the first platform, I saw Second Lieutenant Simonson lying on his back with blood on his shirt front. I bent over him and taking him by the shoulders asked if there was anything I could do. He was dead, or so nearly so that speech was impossible. Seeing there was nothing I could do for the Lieutenant, I continued to my battle station.

"When I arrived in secondary aft I reported to Major Shapley that Mr. Simonson had been hit and there was nothing to be done for him. There was a lot of talking going on and I shouted for silence which came immediately. I had only been there a short time when a terrible explosion caused the ship to shake violently. I looked at the boat deck and everything seemed aflame forward of the mainmast. I reported to the Major that the ship was aflame, which was rather needless, and after looking about, the Major ordered us to leave.

"I was the last man to leave secondary aft because I looked around and there was no one left. I followed the Major down the port side of the tripod mast. The railings, as we ascended, were very hot and as we reached the boat deck I noted that it was torn up and burned. The bodies of the dead were thick, and badly burned men were heading for the quarterdeck, only to fall apparently dead or badly wounded. The Major and I went between No. 3 and No. 4 turret to the starboard side and found Lieutenant Commander Fuqua ordering the men over the side and assisting the wounded. He seemed exceptionally calm and the Major stopped and they talked for a moment. Charred bodies were everywhere.

"I made my way to the quay and started to remove my shoes when I suddenly found myself in the water. I think the concussion of a bomb threw me in. I started swimming for the pipe line which was about one hundred and fifty feet away. I was about half way when my strength gave out entirely. My clothes and shocked condition sapped my strength, and I was about to go under when Major Shapley started to swim by, and seeing my distress, grasped my shirt and told me to hang to his shoulders while he swam in.

"We were perhaps twenty-five feet from the pipe line when the Major's strength gave out and I saw he was floundering, so I loosened my grip on him and told him to make it alone. He stopped and grabbed me by the shirt and refused to let go. I would have drowned but for the Major. We finally reached the beach where a marine directed us to a bomb shelter, where I was given dry clothes and a place to rest." 

Wreckage of the USS Arizona after the attack (click to enlarge)

Stratfor and Claudette Colbert

In the aftermath of the Egyptian elections, the secularists have faded away and now at issue is who will control the Egyptian government, the military or the Islamists, and what will be the policies of that new government? 

In the article George Friedman uses those elections, and the expectations proceeding them, to discuss two main threads in Western diplomatic thinking -- idealism and realism. He points out that the West tends to see the progress from revolution, through democracy and to human rights through its own lens.  

He points out that in the myths of the various narratives a constant is the assumption "that all societies find Western values admirable and want to emulate them." This is clearly not always the case. Regardless, the tension between the realistic and idealistic strains of Western political philosophy plays a significant role in how the West tries to manage situations like the Egyptian crisis with its own interests in mind.

Since the article focused on Egypt, for its Hot Stratfor Babe I was drawn to actresses that played Cleopatra. Out of the group I selected Claudette Colbert, who starred in Cecil B. DeMille's 1934 film Cleopatra. The film, made at the very beginning of the hays code, is classic DeMille, with scantily clad women, extravagant sets and a disregard for historical facts.

Ms Colbert had a long and active career that spanned 1927 to 1987 during which she made the jump from stage to silenft film, to talkies and eventually to television.  

As a bonus, after the article is a clip from Cleopatra full of dancing girls, pomp and lavish sets as well as Roman and Egyptian plotting, debauchery and seduction. Enjoy.


Egypt and the Idealist-Realist Debate in U.S. Foreign Policy
By George Friedman, December 6, 2011

The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections has taken place, and the winners were two Islamist parties. The Islamists themselves are split between more extreme and more moderate factions, but it is clear that the secularists who dominated the demonstrations and who were the focus of the Arab Spring narrative made a poor showing. Of the three broad power blocs in Egypt — the military, the Islamists and the secular democrats — the last proved the weakest.

It is far from clear what will happen in Egypt now. The military remains unified and powerful, and it is unclear how much actual power it is prepared to cede or whether it will be forced to cede it. What is clear is that the faction championed by Western governments and the media will now have to accept the Islamist agenda, back the military or fade into irrelevance.

One of the points I made during the height of the Arab Spring was that the West should be careful of what it wishes for — it might get it. Democracy does not always bring secular democrats to power. To be more precise, democracy might yield a popular government, but the assumption that that government will support a liberal democratic constitution that conceives of human rights in the European or American sense is by no means certain. Unrest does not always lead to a revolution, a revolution does not always lead to a democracy, and a democracy does not always lead to a European- or American-style constitution.

In Egypt today, just as it is unclear whether the Egyptian military will cede power in any practical sense, it is also unclear whether the Islamists can form a coherent government or how extreme such a government might be. And as we analyze the possibilities, it is important to note that this analysis really isn’t about Egypt. Rather, Egypt serves as a specimen to examine — a case study of an inherent contradiction in Western ideology and, ultimately, of an attempt to create a coherent foreign policy.

Core Beliefs

Western countries, following the principles of the French Revolution, have two core beliefs. The first is the concept of national self-determination, the idea that all nations (and what the term “nation” means is complex in itself) have the right to determine for themselves the type of government they wish. The second is the idea of human rights, which are defined in several documents but are all built around the basic values of individual rights, particularly the right not only to participate in politics but also to be free in your private life from government intrusion.

The first principle leads to the idea of the democratic foundations of the state. The second leads to the idea that the state must be limited in its power in certain ways and the individual must be free to pursue his own life in his own way within a framework of law limited by the principles of liberal democracy. The core assumption within this is that a democratic polity will yield a liberal constitution. This assumes that the majority of the citizens, left to their own devices, will favor the Enlightenment’s definition of human rights. This assumption is simple, but its application is tremendously complex. In the end, the premise of the Western project is that national self-determination, expressed through free elections, will create and sustain constitutional democracies.

It is interesting to note that human rights activists and neoconservatives, who on the surface are ideologically opposed, actually share this core belief. Both believe that democracy and human rights flow from the same source and that creating democratic regimes will create human rights. The neoconservatives believe outside military intervention might be an efficient agent for this. Human rights groups oppose this, preferring to organize and underwrite democratic movements and use measures such as sanctions and courts to compel oppressive regimes to cede power. But they share common ground on this point as well. Both groups believe that outside intervention is needed to facilitate the emergence of an oppressed public naturally inclined toward democracy and human rights.

This, then, yields a theory of foreign policy in which the underlying strategic principle must not only support existing constitutional democracies but also bring power to bear to weaken oppressive regimes and free the people to choose to build the kind of regimes that reflect the values of the European Enlightenment.

Complex Questions and Choices

The case of Egypt raises an interesting and obvious question regardless of how it all turns out. What if there are democratic elections and the people choose a regime that violates the principles of Western human rights? What happens if, after tremendous Western effort to force democratic elections, the electorate chooses to reject Western values and pursue a very different direction — for example, one that regards Western values as morally reprehensible and aims to make war against them? One obvious example of this is Adolph Hitler, whose ascent to power was fully in keeping with the processes of the Weimar Republic — a democratic regime — and whose clearly stated intention was to supersede that regime with one that was popular (there is little doubt that the Nazi regime had vast public support), opposed to constitutionalism in the democratic sense and hostile to constitutional democracy in other countries.

The idea that the destruction of repressive regimes opens the door for democratic elections that will not result in another repressive regime, at least by Western standards, assumes that all societies find Western values admirable and want to emulate them. This is sometimes the case, but the general assertion is a form of narcissism in the West that assumes that all reasonable people, freed from oppression, would wish to emulate us. [continued after the jump]