Saturday, December 17, 2005

Bush's Plan

" We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. "


Doug said...

A VERY Sobering look at Iraq.
. Iraq from somebody that's spent a lot of time there .
HH: Now I'm going to introduce you to one of the few Americans I know who spent a year inside Baghdad with the occupation, and knows the new Iraqi constitution upside and down, John Agresto.
Hi, John.
John gives out his e-mail at the end of that piece. (!)
Heck of a resource.

David Thomson said...

I listened to Hugh Hewitt’s interview with John Agresto. The part where the Christians are leaving Iraq in large droves is very troubling. Our troops must remain in the country merely to keep the three major factions from killing each other. Nonetheless, I remain very hopeful. Most Iraqis want to live the good life. Buying air conditioners and cell phones is considered a high priority. The likelihood is that the religious leaders will not dominate their society.

Doug said...

One other scary indicator he mentioned is many MORE hajibs now than before!
But the Exodus is very troubling indeed.
First they removed the Jews...

Doug said...

Bolton Speech: Download DW_A0003.wav .
. Atlas Shrugs .
Regular readers know how relentlessly I advocated for his confirmation. I have an unabashed admiration for Mr. John Bolton.
But I was unaware of his passionate Zionism.
Having heard him speak, I was shaken by his moral clarity, honesty,brilliance and forthrightness.
You become inured to the doublespeak, , the moral equivocation, the bullshit you are force fed on a daily diet by listening to politicians, statesmen, world leaders. So when someone speaks straight, honest, to the point - it is so disconcerting and wonderful.
That was Bolton.
Freedom has no greater friend or activist.
Listen to the whole speech. It runs about 30 minutes. There is not a wasted word.

Doug said...

In an Internet statement Friday, the Islamic Army in Iraq, a major insurgent group, said it was responsible for the absence of widespread election violence because it wanted to avoid harming Sunni Arab voters.

"We knew Sunnis would participate in this game (because) most were forced to through the oppression, torture and destruction and suffering they receive from the slaves of the Cross (the Americans) and the Shiites," said the statement, which could not be immediately verified.

The statement added that the jihadist group did not believe in democracy, only God.
- Pajamas

Doug said...


David Thomson said...

“One other scary indicator he mentioned is many MORE hajibs now than before!”

You should also read Fred Kaplan’s insightful warnings:

We must change the culture of the Middle East. This is not optional. Iraq is the first step and other dominoes will also have to fall. The danger is not over, and that’s why our troops must remain. I strongly contend that an improving economy will make all the difference in the world. So far, the indicators look very good. I believe that I read somewhere that Iraq’s economy should grow by around 16% in 2007. Let’s hope that this turns out to be accurate.

markg8 said...

In a couple of weeks we should know who won the election. I guess it depends on who gets to count the ballots and other factors like vote fraud. Were there really two other tanker trucks full of marked ballots from Iran for instance? It'll come down to whether or not the Iranian backed religious parties got over 50% of the vote and then whether their coalition holds. Do the Kurds side with them or can they, Sunnis and secularists cobble together a majority behind someone like Allawi? It took from January until April for the interim government to form itself last time. By April 2006 this government is supposed to finish the hard part of the constitution they left unresolved last summer. According to the BBC/ABC poll most Iraqis want a strong central government in Baghdad yet they voted for the consitution in October which promises a decentralized government ceding a lot power to the regions. One positive sign is that most Iraqis clearly answered the question about revenge in tht poll. They're not interested in punishing the Sunnis for the crimes of Saddam Hussein.

General Casey told a Pentagon audience yesterday that in a few weeks the military may announce a plan for US troops withdrawals below the 138,000 baseline hinting at a substantial drawdown by late fall just in time for elections in another country we all know and love. LOL doesn't this defeatist know how that demoralizes our soldiers and wounds the tender sensibilities of the President's most vociferous supporters?

Morgan said...

doesn't this defeatist know how that demoralizes our soldiers...

Even if General Casey's predictions/recommendations were identical to those of, say, Howard Dean, the impact on the soldiers' morale would be different, because they know that General Casey seeks victory, and they trust that he has that goal in mind.

Howlin' Howard? Not so much.

markg8 said...

General Casey isn't seeking military victory anymore than he's still seeking WMD. In June he called our military efforts in Iraq "the Pillsbury Doughboy idea" -- pressing the insurgency in one area causes it to rise elsewhere.

Regardless who wins the Iraqi election it's unlikely the government that emerges is going ally itself closely to the US and even less so toward Israel, unless of course we keep 100,000 US troops in the country to keep them in line. We had a chance after the invasion if we had handled the occupation well. Many were in shock and awe at first. Now they're about as happy with the US government as Katrina survivors. Besides these are Arabs we're talking about folks. They weren't predisposed to like us anyway. We should be happy with a government with some semblence of democracy that doesn't set back women's rights too far and doesn't threaten it's neighbors.

Charlie Martin said...

Mark, they don't have to be close allies --- although I'd be willing to put a little money on the propotion that they will be. But as you say, GEN Casey isn't trying for military victory now… for the very good reason that military victory has been achieved.

buddy larsen said...

Not only that, but those cowboy boots of Bush's really piss off the extraterrestrial community, and somewhere on the island of Fiji a baby cries.

Michelle Malkin">Michelle Malkin is disgusted by preposterous baloney.

Peter UK said...

"Do the Kurds side with them or can they, Sunnis and secularists cobble together a majority behind someone like Allawi"

If you knew anything about the subject you would realise how ludicrous that staement is.
Sunnis and secularists LOL!

markg8 said...

Seneca they'll be examining the Iraq occupation & insurgent war for years at the Army War College hoping to figure out how to do better. I hope they come to the same conclusion the computer in the old movie "Wargames" came to about thermonuclear war: the only way to win is not to play.

Afterall our volunteer Army isn't constructed now - and will be less so in the future if Rummy has his way with his reformation - to manage hostile occupations and insurgent wars. It's a big part of the ongoing problem.

Nobody figured in 2000 we'd embark on such a venture. Bush claimed he never would and it was the general consensus in the military it would be crazy to try. He was going to have a humble foreign policy and work with our allies to hand off peacekeeping/nation building missions. Let French and German soldiers shoulder the logistics of handing out water bottles and policing the Kosovos of the world. Our military would be remade into a a lean mean fighting force even more capable of quickly and efficiently winning conventonial wars against conventional armies of nation states. Bush would no more have
gotten elected in 2000 talking about the neocon dream of transforming the world at the point of a gun than
Barry Goldwater did saying extremism
in pursuit of liberty is no vice.

I know his answer is 9/11 changed everything. That's still no reason to invade Iraq. Name one nationalist insurgency that's been successfully put down by a foreign power in the last 100 years. Hell the Russians can't even pacify tiny Chechnya and their heayyhanded tactics have morphed that nationalist rebellion into a jihad. The Pentagon had to dust off the old textbooks written about Vietnam to figure out what to do in Iraq. And going back to a losing effort for reference isn't a great recipe for military success and we haven't had it. We are not welcome there.

As for political success, the Iraqis seem to love democracy right now. But consider this: they are rapidly leaving us no excuse to stay. If the Shia and Kurds agree to share power and most importantly oil revenues fairly with the Sunnis then they know they rob us of the last valid reason for the occupation. They all know if they jump through enough hoops Bush will have to pull out. That's the last hoop he has.

Most Iraqis have no intention of privatizing the nation's oil wealth despite the best attempts of neocon daydreamers in the administration. If corruption is kept under control the lion's share of that revenue will go toward rebuilding their infrastructure. And don't be surprised if Halliburton and Bechtel get shut out of the contracts. Why would anybody hire a contractor that has to tack on 25% to his contract for security to protect his workers from getting killed? Like I said we're not welcome there.

buddy larsen said...

mark, your posts are too damn long--it's no fun to break 'em down if it's no fun to break 'em down. I'm gonna have to go impressionistic to solve that problem:
I think this is your post:

"I know his answer is 9/11 changed everything. That's still no reason to invade Iraq. Name one nationalist insurgency that's been successfully put down by a foreign power in the last 100 years."

Okay, go googoo the British in Malaysia & let me know what ya find.

Peter UK said...

France during the Algierian war.

flenser said...


"Name one nationalist insurgency that's been successfully put down by a foreign power in the last 100 years."

Iraq does not have a nationalist insurgency. In fact, one of the problems we face there is the lack of nationalist feeling.

But to answer your question, the majority of nationalist insurgencies over the past 100 years have been unsuccessful. That is why Northern Ireland is still part of the UK, why the Basques are still part of Spain, why the Chechens are still part of Russia, and on and on.

As a means of getting what you want, terrorism has a very poor track record.

buddy larsen said...

Yugoslavia proves that terrorism can break apart a country--and then the new little countries, and then those newer littler countries. All ya need is a UN presence to keep the war issues from settling--which is fine, as settling means plenty-plenty graves for all.

Doug said...

It is a grave situation, but does Mark know now, and will he know then?

markg8 said...

Go look up Malaysia and what do you find? Communist ethnic Chinese not indigenous Malaysians threw a revolution and the Brits with Malay help quashed it. Not the same as Iraq is it?

Petey your mouth has to be getting sore from the way you just keep jamming your foot in there. LOL

flenser make up your mind. 70% of Iraqis might have voted Thursday. The people fighting us are fighting for control of the country not some right to form some oil poor little Sunnistand. Foreign jihadis have never been pegged at more than 10% of the resistance and probably make up far less. The Subbius are fighting for their version of Iraq.

Northern Ireland, Basque Spain and Chechnya are role models for our occupation? God help us. Geez just yday I passed a car here in NJ with a 26 + 7 = 1 bumper sticker.

Buddy you're not Milosevic fan are you?

Peter UK said...

Mark Garrity,are you sure you are forty nine,your insults are so infantile.I can understand,you being an idiot, out his depth with intelligent adults.
Never mind you have your mouth where your brains are

Peter UK said...

"some oil poor little Sunnistand"
What on earth are you gibbering about Markg8,have you any idea what the derivation of the "stans" are?