Tuesday, December 13, 2005

The "Opinionated Bastard"…

puts the recent BBC/ABC poll into graphical form.

  1. 77 percent of Iraqis say their lives are good.

  2. 52 percent says their lives are better. Only around 30 percent say their lives are worse.

    (And is it just me, or does that not sound like about the percentage of Sunni?)

  3. 65 percent expect life next year to be better.

  4. While 53 percent say things in Iraq today are "quite bad" or "very bad", 48 percent say it's better than it was under Saddam.

  5. 69 percent expect Iraq as a whole to be better a year from today.

  6. 71 percent want a unified government in Bagdad. 74 percent want the government to be a democracy (versus 25 percent who want an Islamic government of religious leaders.)

  7. 76 percent think the December elections will create a stable government.

Judith Apter Klinghoffer makes two interesting points as well:

When asked what would be the worst thing that could happen to Iraq in the next 12 months, only 8.9% chose "occupation not leaving Iraq."

When asked what would be the best thing that could happen to Iraq in the next 12 months, only 5.7% chose American forces leaving Iraq.


Unknown said...

I don't think it was asked in this poll... but in every poll I have seen the majority of the Iraqi people are glad Saddam is gone. In fact the majority wants him dead.

I did note that after the President's speech yesterday the AP latched onto the 30 thousand number. All that good stuff and they make a headline out of the one bad thing.

I saw that exchange and a reporter asked how many Iraqis had died, the president responded that the insurgents had killed about 30,000 if I remember correctly.[and he mentioned the number of our dead as well]

Which might have some bearing on these numbers and the even better numbers in the other recent polls. The Iraqis are blaming the insurgents for a lot of the killing.

One poll said the number of Iraqis with cell phones has grown from 6% to 64% in the last couple of years, personal wealth has grown as well. All kinds of things are going on over there besides car bombs.

I do hope we can bring our people home soon, but the most important thing is to complete the mission. The Iraqis deserve a chance.

Charlie Martin said...

This poll is a mess. I read the BBC version of it and the methodology is all screwed up. You can read whatever you want into it. But at least they tried. I think taking a decent poll in Iraq is almost impossible anyway. People who've lived under a Stalinist thug for 30 years have a reflexive reaction to say what they think the powers that be want to hear.

But Mark, you were citing the "80 percent of Iraqis hate us" poll just the other day. (A poll which, by the way, no one seems to be able to tracxk down. Can you find me a citation to the actual poll?)

You wouldn't want us to think that your position on polls is "whatever I agree with is a good poll"?

In this poll, the results seem pretty plausible: they think things have gotten better, they're not happy with the occupation, they think they can govern themselves, and they want the US to leave as soon as they can secure Iraq themselves.

Charlie Martin said...

You'll have to google the Brit military poll Seneca.

I have: I see lots of people citing it, but the poll itself doesn't show up. Just lots of hearsay.

Your other point -- that we'd provide better security by simply pulling out -- is stupid.